Time-varying moments, idiosyncratic risk, and an application to hot-issue IPO aftermarket returns

This paper proposes time-varying idiosyncratic risk as a component driving conditional abnormal returns and outlines a corresponding Engle et al. [Econometrica 55 (1987) 391] ARCH-M market model. An application is given to initial public offering (IPO) aftermarket stock returns, where a positive relation between idiosyncratic risk and returns is consistent with young issues’ equity as a contingent claim on firm assets. The empirical results for an illustrative sample of German Neuer Markt stocks traded during the first two years after initial listing indicate pronounced skewness as well as a positive relation between conditional idiosyncratic risk and expected returns. Conditioning aftermarket performance on risk yields much lower levels of abnormal return significance than a standard approach.     

Microstructure and reverse stock splits

In this paper we show that, similar to NYSE/AMEX stocks, NASDAQ stocks exhibit significant ex date returns for reverse stock splits. Although the 10-day cumulative return after the ex date is close to –10%, this does not violate market efficiency, because the average bid-ask spread for the reverse split stock is at least double this return. We also document that these large negative returns are mostly due to a drop in the ask price while bid prices barely change at all. Furthermore, the ex date returns are negatively related to trading volume.These results suggest that there is abnormal selling and a significant buildup of market makers' inventories near the ex date. To reduce the inventory buildup, market makers lower ask prices to induce buying by investors, resulting in the observed negative returns. Lowering bid prices, an alternative strategy for reducing inventories, is not attractive to market makers due to competitive factors and the reduction of commissions associated with a smaller number of transactions. Notably, selling investors have no incentives to sell their stocks early to avoid the observed negative ex date return, since this return is largely an ask price phenomenon and does not represent realized returns to sellers.     

证券市场的货币政策传导功能实证研究

货币政策是货币当局对经济进行宏观调控的重要工具，政策的有效性首先取决于金融领域的传导机制。长期以来我国的货币政策一直以银行信贷为主要传导枢纽，但随着资本市场的发展，其传导功能将日益强化。本文通过实证分析，建议实施货币政策时应充分考虑资本市场对货币政策传导功能的影响。     

以股抵债对上市公司的影响

本文首先界定了以股抵债的内涵与特征然后分析了以股抵债对公司股权结构、资产结构、资本结构和公司业绩的影响,指出以股抵债的适用范围和局限性;最后阐述了股份制改革、股权分置、国有股减持和以股抵债的关系,提出以股抵债是为解决大股东占用资金而采取的一种特殊的股票回购方式,是解决股权分置过程中针对特殊情况可能采用的特殊方式。     

一对多供应链中寄售库存协作效益研究

针对单供应商和多购买商的二级供应链。通过数值方法，研究了完全信息及需求价格敏感情况下寄售库存（Consignment Stock，简称CS）协作对供应链系统收益影响情况。在假定供应商和购买商独立决策且完全理性，双方都力图使自己的收益最大化的基础上，双方最优的库存和定价策略将是Staekelberg博弈结果，其中，供应商是领导者，购买商是追随者。分析结果表明。CS方式在某些情况下可以改善供应链协作，提高供应链系统效益，尤其是在价格弹性较小时，CS协作方式可以作为供应链协作的有效机制，而当价格弹性较大时，双方难以形成密切的伙伴关系。     

股份回购的会计约束条件分析

股份回购在西方发达国家的资本市场上属于正常现象,是西方发达国家上市公司资本运营的一种方式,但我国对于股份回购实行的是“原则禁止,例外许可”的原则,尽管新颁布的《公司法》对例外的范围已经放宽,但是却未对股份回购制定具体的制度规范。基于股票回购的多种财务效应,本文拟从会计的视角,分析股份回购财务指标、股份回购核算方法以及对股份回购信息披露制度等方面的约束条件。     

上市公司举债、股东财富与股市效应关系的实证研究

本文就上市公司举债对股东财富的影响及股市效应进行了理论分析和实证检验 ,发现中国上市公司举债所产生的效应恰恰与西方国家相反 ,即借款比率与股票风险 β存在负相关关系。进一步的分析发现 ,借款负债对企业经营业绩和股东财富的波动有稳定的作用 ,但随着公司的业绩水平和市场竞争能力的变化 ,这种稳定作用的显著程度也不相同。     

Dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from East Asian markets

This study examines dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices for seven East Asian countries, including Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand, for the period January 1988 to October 1998. Our empirical results show a significant causal relation from exchange rates to stock prices for Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand before the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We also find a causal relation from the equity market to the foreign exchange market for Hong Kong, Korea, and Singapore. Further, while no country shows a significant causality from stock prices to exchange rates during the Asian crisis, a causal relation from exchange rates to stock prices is found for all countries except Malaysia. Our findings are robust with respect to various testing methods used, including Granger causality tests, a variance decomposition analysis, and an impulse response analysis. Our findings also indicate that the linkages vary across economies with respect to exchange rate regimes, the trade size, the degree of capital control, and the size of equity market.     

信息不对称与机构操纵——中国股市机构与散户的博弈分析

中国股市中 ,股票二级市场价格常常在短期内发生剧烈变化。这种现象产生的原因在于 ,在信息不对称情况下 ,机构通过操纵上市公司基本面信息来影响股票交易价格 ,以获得超额收益。鉴于机构之间信息不对称程度远远低于机构与散户之间信息不对称程度 ,发展机构投资者可以最终减少市场操纵行为 ,机构在投资者中所占比例与市场整体被操纵程度的关系可以用倒“U”形曲线表示。     

基于可持续发展的股利决策:现金股利与股票回购

股利政策是影响企业可持续发展的重要因素。作为股利支付的两种重要方式,企业在可持续发展过程中如何实现现金股利与股票回购呢?在现实经济中,资本市场是不完善的,由于受到税收、信息不对称等因素的影响,现金股利与股票回购对公司及股东的影响是不同的,公司在决策时既要考虑法律制度的限制,又要考虑公司财务状况,还应充分考虑股东的需求、税收、信号、财务战略等问题。