The Sophisticated and the Simple: the Profitability of Contrarian Strategies

A variety of variables have been used to form contrarian portfolios, ranging from relatively simple measures, like book‐to‐market, cash flow‐to‐price, earnings‐to‐price and past returns, to more sophisticated measures based on the Ohlson model and residual income model (RIM). This paper investigates whether: (i) contrarian strategies based on RIM perform better or worse than those based on the Ohlson model; (ii) contrarian strategies based on more sophisticated valuation models (e.g. Ohlson and RIM) perform much better than the relatively simpler ranking variables that have been used so extensively in the finance literature. Given that the RIM and Ohlson models require greater information inputs and technical know‐how, and make different implicit assumptions on future abnormal earnings, it is important to ascertain if they offer significantly greater contrarian profits to outweigh the increased costs that they entail. Indeed, our surprising finding is that simple cash flow‐to‐price measures appear to do almost as well as the more sophisticated alternatives. One would have expected the sophisticated models to significantly outperform the simple cash flow to price model for the reasons given by Penman (2007) .     

围绕首都经济发展创新北京高职教育

高等职业教育具有区域性、服务性、职业性和开放性的显著特点,强调以服务于区域、行业经济和社会发展为主旨。北京高职教育必须适应首都经济发展的需求,围绕首都经济发展的特色定位,创新北京高职教育的办学模式和人才培养模式,彰显北京高职教育的特色。     

风险投资在促进创新型中小企业成长中的作用

风险投资家不仅为创新型中小企业提供了股本支持,而且还运用自身丰富的管理经验、专业能力及社会网络,向创新企业家提供其所缺乏的管理服务。风险投资这一创新的投资方式,使其成为推动创新型中小企业发展的不可替代的力量。要发挥风险投资在推动创新型中小企业发展中的巨大作用,必须遵循风险投资交易的规律,一方面要大力发展我国的风险投资业,另一方面要增强创新型中小企业吸纳风险投资的能力。     

DETERMINANTS OF SCHOOL ENROLMENT AND EDUCATION ATTAINMENT: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM KENYA1

This paper investigates the determinants of demand for schooling in Kenya. Probit and ordered probit methods are used to model enrolment and attainment respectively. The results show that child characteristics, parental education and other household characteristics, quality and cost of schooling are important determinants of demand for education services in Kenya. The results further show that girls would be more affected by policy changes than boys. The findings call for targeting in efforts to boost and sustain demand for schooling in Kenya. The study recommends immediate policy interventions focusing on improving quality of education and poverty alleviation.     

Regional and Global Responses to the Asian Crisis

This paper examines how economic policy-making changed as a result of the Asian crisis of 1997–1998, in the countries affected, in the region, and at the global level. It is perhaps surprising how little change has occurred in the broad approach to economic policy, but there is a much greater awareness of the vulnerabilities posed by large international capital flows. The broad tenets of the Washington Consensus, with its market-based policies, remain in place, but there is a recognition that well-functioning markets require complex institutions, rules, and procedures, and that these take time and effort to develop. Most of this institutional development will have to take place at the national level, but regional arrangements can offer support, and multilateral agencies, such as the International Monetary Fund, have learned from the crisis.     

The brain drain, ‘educated unemployment’, human capital formation,and economic betterment1

Extending both the ‘harmful brain drain’ literature and the ‘beneficial brain gain’ literature, this paper analyzes both the negative and the positive impact of migration by skilled individuals in a unified framework. The paper extends the received literature on the ‘harmful brain drain’ by showing that in the short run, international migration can result in ‘educated unemployment’ and overeducation in developing countries, as well as a brain drain from these countries. A simulation suggests that the costs of ‘educated unemployment’ and overeducation can amount to significant losses for the individuals concerned, who may constitute a substantial proportion of the educated individuals. Adopting a dynamic framework, it is then shown that due to the positive externality effect of the prevailing, economy‐wide endowment of human capital on the formation of human capital, a relaxation in migration policy in both the current period and the preceding period can facilitate ‘take‐off’ of a developing country in the current period. Thus, it is suggested that while the migration of some educated individuals may reduce the social welfare of those who stay behind in the short run, it improves it in the long run.     

我国中小企业开展融资租赁的现状及对策

中小企业在发展过程中主要障碍之一就是融资难,如何解决中小企业的融资问题也就成为社会各界研究的焦点,尽管提出各种各样的措施来解决,但收效甚微,基本上是“治标不治本”,本文以福建省(泉州)中小企业的发展现状为例,从国际租赁的角度探讨解决困扰中小企业融资问题的途径。     

Patrilocality and human capital accumulationEvidence from Central Asia1

Anthropologists estimate that 70 percent of human societies are patrilocal, meaning that adult sons reside with their parents, and that wives go to live with their husbands’ families upon marriage. Yet very little is known about how this widespread social norm influences intrahousehold resource allocation and, through this, economic development. This paper examines the effects of patrilocality on schooling and household educational expenditures in Tajikistan. To identify the causal effect of living in a three versus two generation household on these outcomes, exogenous variation in housing availability across communities is exploited. It is shown that the impacts of living in a three generation household are important for both school enrolment and for educational spending. The results suggest that one reason why patrilocal societies remain poorer than those with nuclear household norms is that three generation households make relatively few human capital investments in the youngest generation. Patrilocality, which probably evolved to solve coordination problems in agrarian societies, may thus be a cause rather than simply a correlate of low educational attainment in developing countries.     

我国农村人力资本开发的制度分析

农村人力资本开发是农民增收、农村经济发展、建设社会主义新农村的客观要求,但是目前我国农村人力资本开发存在着一些问题。本文针对农村人力资本开发问题从制度视角作了一个简单的分析与探讨。     

科技企业孵化器与风险投资融合的经济学分析

科技企业孵化器与风险投资的融合有利于促进高新技术产业的发展。从项目、管理、资金三个维度分析了孵化器与风险投资的融合机理。由于目标冲突、社会分工与交易成本的原因,孵化器与风险投资的融合仍然存在现实困境。最后,提出了孵化器发展中导入风险投资的对策与建议。