基于协整理论和前移回归模型的福建省耕地资源变动预测及其驱动机制研究

研究目的:探索改进时间序列预测法与多因素预测法在区域耕地资源变动预测及驱动机制分析方面局限性的途径。研究方法:(1)引入协整理论有关方法对时间序列数据平稳性及协整性进行分析和评估,为驱动机制研究提供思路;(2)探索构建具有"影响滞后"机制的前移回归模型预测方法。研究结果:在对福建省的实证分析案例中,上述方法运用效果较好,模型输出的预测数据及所作的驱动机制分析可为该省今后的种植业生产规划、农业土地规划与决策提供参考。研究结论:协整理论与前移回归方法的有机结合,可为区域耕地资源变动预测及驱动机制研究提供一种有效的工具。     

黑龙江省耕地非农化与经济发展的Granger因果关系研究

研究目的:分析黑龙江省耕地非农化过程的内在原因,以助于协调黑龙江省耕地非农化进程与经济发展的关系,使耕地保护工作与未来经济运行相一致。研究方法:运用Granger因果关系检验法,利用Eviews4.1软件分析。研究结果:城市化进程对耕地非农化进程的影响与经济增长对耕地非农化的影响并不一致,城市化进程对耕地非农化的影响更加显著。因此,要从根本上解决耕地非农化与经济发展之间的矛盾须将城市化作为切入点。     

The Importance of taste in experimental auctions: consumers’ valuation of calorie and sweetener labeling of soft drinks

A majority of purchases that consumers make are classified as repeat purchases. One of the main reasons why consumers make repeat food purchases is the food's taste. Therefore, we examined the importance of including taste testing in nonhypothetical experimental auctions. Specifically, we used two experiments to determine consumers’ willingness to pay for soft drinks labeled with different calorie and sweetener information. In Experiment 1, participants tasted the soft drinks prior to the bidding rounds. In Experiment 2, participants did not taste the soft drinks prior to the bidding rounds. Bidding behavior for the soft drinks was significantly different between Experiment 1 and Experiment 2. Results suggest that including taste testing in the design of experimental auctions is important to accurately capture consumers’ willingness to pay for foods that are purchased repeatedly. Results also imply that policies aimed at combating obesity by making the calorie content of foods more visible may not produce desired outcomes.     

人力资源市场和谐发展的宏观视角研究——基于山东劳动力市场的实证分析

合理解决劳动力就业问题已成为经济能否持续有效发展、创建和谐社会的关键因素之一。文章以山东为例,利用协整检验对长期模型中可能影响劳动力就业的GDP增长、外商直接投资、三大产业结构特征以及教育和技术研发投入金额等因素进行实证分析;利用向量误差修正模型和广义脉冲响应函数研究各影响因素对人力资本市场需求的短期冲击;同时利用Granger因果检验对各主要影响因素和就业情况的内在因果关系进行检测;最后对我国劳动力就业形势进行预测并提出相关政策建议。     

Flexible Fourier stationary test in purchasing power parity for African countries

This study applies stationary test with a Fourier function proposed by Enders and Lee (2004 Enders, W and Lee, J. 2004. Testing for a unit root with a nonlinear Fourier function, Tuscaloosa, AL, , USA: Working Paper, Department of Economics, Finance and Legal Studies, University of Alabama.  [Google Scholar], 2009 Enders, W and Lee, J. 2009. The flexible Fourier form and testing for unit roots: an example of the term structure of interest rates, Tuscaloosa, AL, , USA: Working Paper, Department of Economics, Finance and Legal Studies, University of Alabama.  [Google Scholar]) to test the validity of long run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) to assess the nonstationary properties of the real exchange rate for 20 African countries. We find that our approximation has higher power to detect U shaped breaks and smooth breaks than linear method if the true data generating process of exchange rate is in fact a stationary nonlinear process. We examine the validity of PPP from the nonlinear point of view and provide robust evidence clearly indicate that PPP holds true for almost African countries. Our findings point out their exchange rate adjustment is mean reversion towards PPP equilibrium values in a nonlinear way.     

New evidence of regional income divergence in post-reform Russia

This article investigates regional income convergence in Russia during 2000–2008. We test the hypothesis in which income divergence across regions of the country should give place to income convergence as the country moves toward free market economy with strong market institutions. The study contributes to the existing literature by using the exponential smooth autoregressive Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test in a panel setup, a novel econometric technique, which encompasses cross sectional dependence. Results show strong evidence of on-going regional income divergence in post-reform period.     

Did financial deregulation help consumers? Access to market-yield instruments

The maturity effect (ME) of futures prices postulated by Samuelson (1965) is re-examined using three nonparametric tests. The consistent entropy asymmetry test by Racine and Maasoumi (2007) indicates that variance is an appropriate risk or uncertainty measure for ME, and value-at-risk and expected shortfall are also adopted. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov dominance test and Wilcoxon rank sum and signed rank test are employed to rank the estimates of the three risk measures under a moving-window framework. The testing outcomes are contingent on futures type, testing method and risk measures. The testing outcomes show mild support for ME.     

Better peers,better scores? A study of twin junior high school graduates in Taiwan

Using data of twin students graduating from junior high schools between 2002 and 2004 in Taiwan, we estimate the effects of peers on high school joint entrance examination performance. To alleviate the potential endogeneity of peer educational achievement, linear models with twin fixed effect and instrumental variables are estimated. Quantile, quantile with twin fixed effect and quantile with instrument variables regressions are also implemented to determine whether estimated peer effects differ at various locations of the testing scores’ conditional distributions. Positive and statistically significant peer effects are found to exist at the mean and at different quantile levels.     

Re-testing Prebisch–Singer hypothesis: new evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test

The Prebisch–Singer hypothesis in economics asserts that over time the relative price of primary goods relative to manufactured goods should experience a downward trend. To test the hypothesis, we must first establish the unit root properties of the relative price term and then regress the stationary series on a trend term. We use the quantile unit root test which allows for both smooth unknown numbers and the form of breaks in the trend function through a Fourier function to show that the relative price of 23 out of 24 primary goods is stationary. However, the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis is supported only in half of the primary commodities.     

外汇储备对我国物价水平的影响——基于协整检验与误差修正模型的分析

协整和格兰杰因果检验结果表明,我国外汇储备与物价水平存在协整关系,且外汇储备是物价水平的格兰杰原因,表明外汇储备增加将对通货膨胀形成压力。但从误差修正模型的检验结果看,我国外汇储备对物价水平的影响在短期内较为有限,其主要原因是我国央行短期内进行大量的外汇冲销操作。因此,我国需要采取有效的措施来缓解通胀压力,如加大央行公开市场业务操作、改革外汇管理体制、适当放宽汇率浮动幅度以及合理使用我国现有外汇储备等。