The gambler’s fallacy fallacy (fallacy)

The gambler’s fallacy is the irrational belief that prior outcomes in a series of events affect the probability of a future outcome, even though the events in question are independent and identically distributed. In this paper, we argue that in the standard account of the gambler’s fallacy, the gambler’s fallacy fallacy can arise: the irrational belief that all beliefs pertaining to the probabilities of sequences of outcomes constitute the gambler’s fallacy, when, in fact, they do not. Specifically, the odds of the probabilities of some sequences of outcomes can be epistemically rational in a given decision-making situation. Not only are such odds of probabilities of sequences of outcomes not the gambler’s fallacy, but they can be implemented as a simple heuristic for avoiding the gambler’s fallacy in risk-related decision-making. However, we have to be careful not to fall prey to a variant of the gambler’s fallacy, the gambler’s fallacy fallacy (fallacy), in which we do not calculate odds for the probabilities of sequences that matter, but rather simply believe that the raw probability for the occurrence of a sequence of outcomes is the probability for the last outcome in that sequence.     

Using panel data dea to measure CEOs' focus of attention: An application to the study of cognitive group membership and performance

In this study, we examine the existence and performance of cognitive groups. In accordance with the attention‐based view of managerial cognition, cognitive groups are defined as groups of firms in which the CEOs focus their attention on similar strategic elements when seeking to maximize their firm's competitive advantage. We developed a panel data extension of the original Data Envelopment Analysis to gauge CEOs' focus of attention and then clustered firms into groups. We compared our approach with other approaches that use content analysis of CEOs' letters to shareholders and CEOs' demographic characteristics to measure CEOs' attention. Although the different approaches are related, indicating the existence of a common underlying construct (i.e., mental models), our approach explains a higher proportion of the variation in organizational performance. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Skills in the green economy: recycling promises in the UK e‐waste management sector

In advanced economies the ‘greening’ of the economy is widely seen as promising extensive job creation and upskilling, alongside its other benefits. In popular and policy rhetoric, the growing importance of ‘green skills’ is asserted frequently. This study critically examines these claims within the context of the electronic waste management sector in the United Kingdom. Drawing on the cases of a non‐profit organisation and a small private enterprise in North West England, we observe that despite government support for developing skills in e‐waste, both the development and utilisation of skills remain minimal. Critically, the relatively more skill‐intensive process of reuse is substantially less profitable than recycling and resource capture. The study concludes by noting that the expectations from the green economy for high‐quality jobs need to be assessed within the context of similar, misplaced celebrations of previous transformations of work to avoid recycling the same promises.     

The Role of Participative Leadership and Trust‐Based Mechanisms in Eliciting Intern Performance: Evidence from China

In this article, we investigate the relationship between participative leadership and job performance within the internship setting. Based on two‐waves of survey data obtained from 309 intern‐supervisor dyads, we find that participative leadership has a positive relationship with job performance, and that affective trust mediates that relationship. We also find that although cognitive trust is not significantly related to intern job performance, it mediates the relationship between participative leadership and affective trust. Our findings contradict those of previous research which question the effectiveness of participative leadership in short‐term employment situations such as internships. They also highlight the importance of designing internships to be reflective of typical performance situations, characterized by participative leadership practices, rather than more directive leadership practices. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Ceos' cognitive maps and the scope of the organization

In this paper, CEOs are considered as ‘cognizers’ charged with integrating views in the top management team; a role which should require high cognitive complexity especially in diversified multinational corporations. A methodology for studying top managers' cognitive complexity is described and then applied to a sample of 26 CEOs. The CEOs' cognitive maps of the structure and of the dynamics of their industry are analyzed in terms of their degree of complexity, in relation to the breadth of the business portfolio of the firm, its geographic scope and the links the firm has with foreign parents. The results of this exploratory test generally confirm the principle of requisite cognitive complexity, and reveal a new set of more precise hypotheses linking particular dimensions of the scope of the firm with particular dimensions of CEOs' cognitive complexity.     

会计信息传递效果的分析框架

造成会计信息传递失效的原因包括:会计信息系统的固有缺陷、企业管理层对信息披露的选择行为和信息使用者的认知限度3个因素。严格的会计确认标准和计量方法的限制造成了会计信息系统的固有缺陷;管理层对信息披露成本和效益进行量度的困难,加之管理层的复杂披露动机,使信息披露的选择表现出一定的随机性;信息使用者对大量专业信息处理能力的缺乏,使信息使用者存在认知限度。本文试图将3个因素纳入到一个统一的分析框架中加以研究,以全面、系统地把握会计信息传递效果的症结。最后,本文运用该分析框架对会计信息过剩现象的争论进行了分析。     

The role of safety culture/climate and social cognitive factors for driving behaviors of Turkish professional drivers transporting petroleum products

The present study aimed to examine and compare the role of safety culture/climate and social cognitive factors on driving behaviors in a group of Turkish professional drivers transporting petroleum products. A questionnaire survey was conducted in a sample of 119 male drivers working for an oil company. The questionnaire included items related to demographic information and driving history; perceptions about the safety culture/climate of the company; fatalism; traffic risk perception; road safety attitudes; and driving behaviors. The results showed that being a truck driver compared to being a tanker driver was positively related to driving violations, while commitment to the management safety was negatively related to driving violations. On the other hand, safe attitudes towards speeding were negatively related to driving errors/lapses. Fatalism was positively related to both driving violations and errors/lapses. Also, compared to tanker drivers, truck drivers reported more violations and errors/lapses, a lower traffic risk perception and higher fatalism. Implications for the safety of professional drivers working for oil companies are discussed.     

The two faces of social capital in private flood mitigation: opposing effects on risk perception,self-efficacy and coping capacity

Impacts of flooding are expected to increase, most notably in residential areas. As a consequence, private households are increasingly encouraged to engage in private flood mitigation complementary to public measures. Despite the growing literature on private flood mitigation, little is known about how social capital influences households’ perception of and coping with flood risks. This study draws on survey data of 226 flood-prone households in two Austrian Alpine municipalities, both recently affected by riverine flooding. We show that social capital cuts both ways: on the positive side, social capital increases perceived self-efficacy and provides critical support during and most notably after flood events. On the negative side, social capital reduces flood risk perceptions of private households. While social ties are effective when responding to and recovering from floods, the expectation of social support downplays risk, making precautionary action by households less likely. The results also show that flood-affected households receive more social support than they provide to others. In the long-run, this can lead to a problematic reciprocity imbalance, challenging the long-term stability of the interpersonal exchanges underlying social capital. Among the various sources of social support, informal social networks (neighbours, friends and relatives) provide the most important workforce in the response and recovery phase of a flood event. It is therefore crucial for flood risk management to recognise and promote the protective quality of social capital alongside conventional structural and non-structural measures.     

What Style Liquidity Timing Skills Do Mutual Fund Managers Possess?

Recent studies claim that mutual fund managers demonstrate strong MARKET liquidity timing skills. We extend their liquidity timing tests to the four‐factor case and investigate liquidity timing skills with respect to the MARKET, SIZE, VALUE and MOMENTUM factors. Contrary to these claims, we find no evidence that fund managers adjust market exposure in anticipation of market liquidity changes. We find rather strong evidence that fund managers successfully overweight small stocks as market liquidity increases. Our study also demonstrates that it is easy to misidentify SIZE liquidity timing as MARKET liquidity timing in models that focus only on MARKET liquidity timing.     

Human capital formation under neo-liberalism: the legacy of vocational education training in Australasia and implications for the Asia-Pacific region

Abstract

This appraisal considers the role and impact of vocational education and training (VET) in Australia and New Zealand, and suggests directions such policy might take in other Asia-Pacific countries. It identifies key issues and constraints in making VET more responsive to emerging labour market needs in the region as an important factor in sustaining high economic growth. It focuses on the way in which the demands of the government, industry, trainees, and, in particular, shifts in political ideology that have influenced the education and training sectors in both countries. It addresses points of specific relevance for the delivery of VET in the broader Asia-Pacific context and concludes with a consideration of lessons and experiences of Australia and New Zealand with VET that may hold for other countries in the region in formulating priorities and implementing strategies in meeting their current and emerging needs for skills development.