企业道德风险的二元防范分析

本文在阐述企业道德风险含义、产生根源及其危害的基础上,分析了企业道德风险的防范对策。应把激励与监督机制相结合、法律与信誉机制相结合来防范企业道德风险。     

RECOVERING PORTFOLIO DEFAULT INTENSITIES IMPLIED BY CDO QUOTES

We propose a stable nonparametric algorithm for the calibration of “top‐down” pricing models for portfolio credit derivatives: given a set of observations of market spreads for collateralized debt obligation (CDO) tranches, we construct a risk‐neutral default intensity process for the portfolio underlying the CDO which matches these observations, by looking for the risk‐neutral loss process “closest” to a prior loss process, verifying the calibration constraints. We formalize the problem in terms of minimization of relative entropy with respect to the prior under calibration constraints and use convex duality methods to solve the problem: the dual problem is shown to be an intensity control problem, characterized in terms of a Hamilton–Jacobi system of differential equations, for which we present an analytical solution. Given a set of observed CDO tranche spreads, our method allows to construct a default intensity process which leads to tranche spreads consistent with the observations. We illustrate our method on ITRAXX index data: our results reveal strong evidence for the dependence of loss transitions rates on the previous number of defaults, and offer quantitative evidence for contagion effects in the (risk‐neutral) loss process.     

从转型发展看我国的城镇化战略

金融危机爆发以来,国家对转变发展方式愈益重视,一系列基础性制度、重大基础设施和区域规划加速实施,必将对经济社会发展和城镇化道路带来深远影响.城镇化作为结构调整的重要内容和手段,理应在国家转型发展中发挥重要作用.要通过深化改革、正确处理城乡关系、促进就业增长、优化城镇空间布局、发挥各地竞争优势,推动经济社会发展与城镇化互促共进,是中国实现转型发展的必由之路.     

Testing purchasing power parity for Japan and the US: A structural-break approach

In this work we empirically assess the weak and strong forms of purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for the economies of Japan and US. Monthly data for the, traded-goods price indices and the JPY/USD exchange rate are employed for the, period from January 2000 to October 2012. This period includes large shocks, such as, the US subprime crisis and the 2011 Tsunami in Japan. We take into account possible, structural shifts and breaks by employing the class of Lee and Strazicich, 2003, Lee and Strazicich, 2004 unit, root tests. Empirical analysis suggests that a break corresponding to the start of the US subprime crisis is not rejected. Furthermore, utilizing the Gregory and Hansen (1996) and, Hatemi (2008) cointegration methodologies, the weak form of PPP is not rejected. We, also test the strong PPP hypothesis by using Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares, (DOLS). The empirical evidence rejects the strong form of PPP for the period, preceding the US subprime crisis in contrast to the period after.     

在当前经济形势下扩大内需与旅游业发展

2008年，以美国次贷问题引起的金融风暴席卷全球，国际经济环境中不确定不稳定因素明显增多，全球经济面临危机，各类人群消费信心逐日下探，需求方面出现严重不足，导致供给出现剩余，旅游业也未幸免。为了促进我国经济稳定快速发展，扩大内需成为当务之急，旅游业发展有助于扩大内需，同时，旅游业自身的发展，也要依靠扩大内需。     

建交三十年以来中美贸易的回顾及展望

中美两国正式建立外交关系以来,两国在经济上已成为战略合作伙伴.美国已是我国第二大贸易伙伴,第一大出口市场,我国是美国第二大贸易伙伴国,第二大进口来源地和第三大出口市场.随着中美贸易额的扩大,中美贸易失衡问题也浮出水面,美国对华采取的反倾销、反补贴及特别保障措施等所带来的贸易摩擦问题越来越多.解决中美经贸摩擦问题、特别是在金融危机导致我国出口增长趋缓、出口产品成本升高导致中国输美产品竞争优势下降的前提下解决好双方的贸易问题,我国必须要充分运用世界贸易组织争端解决机制;完善市场经济体制,推进外贸增长方式的转变,提高自我创新能力及竞争力,实施出口市场多元化策略.     

The reflective accountant: towards a new model for professional development

The accounting profession in recent times has been under intense scrutiny. Questions have been raised about, among other things, the right of the profession to regulate its activities, the behaviour of accounting firms and the usefulness of accounting information, a situation that would seem to indicate the existence of a crisis. This paper argues that the present crisis facing the accounting profession can be attributed to the inability of the tradional (technical rationality) model for professional development to cope with the new demands placed on the modern accounting profession which is characterized by professional pluralism. The paper proposes an alternative model for professional development based on the concept of the ‘reflective practitioner’. It is argued that the proposed model would equip accounting professionals with a degree of flexibility which is considered essential in carrying out their functions in a changing environment.     

当前金融危机的根源及启示探析:一种马克思主义的视角

对于当前全球性金融危机产生的原因,中外学者有不同的见解;有的从技术层面或运行层面或监管层面去解释,有的从体制层面或制度层面去解释,都有各自的道理。但从深层次的根源上说,这次金融危机并未超越马克思关于经济危机的理论逻辑,其根源依然是由资本主义基本矛盾引发的。我国应对此次金融危机,首先要坚持和发展中国特色社会主义,抵制和消除新自由主义对我国的影响;其次要重视虚拟经济与实体经济的结合;再次要减少我国过高的外贸依存度;最后要防止金融与经济危机危害的继续扩大,加强对虚拟经济的有效监管。     

全球金融危机对台湾决策思维的影响

2008年全球金融海啸使得发达国家面对自上世纪30年代以来最大的衰退，但是发展中国家如金砖四国却依然持续发展。许多经济学家严厉地警告，家计单位及企业的消费支出减少，而对产出的影响更为严重，此举迫使台湾不得不通过扩大消费的方式，来挽回疲弱的经济力。本文针对此次全球金融危机对于台湾当局在因应策略上，关于全球金融体制的崩溃分析、有关当局的处理布局、国际经济组织及先进国家处理经验及建立新的清算机制等因应之道做分析与探讨，提供政策建议，希望封尔後的金融布局有所帮助。     

危机下中小企业跨国经营的“危”与“机”

2008年开始的金融危机冲击了世界经济,加快了世界经济结构调整的步伐,金融危机产生的威胁影响到了各国企业的跨国经营活动,使企业跨国经营的风险增加;但是金融危机也为企业的跨国经营带来了机遇,各国恢复经济的政策减少了对外资的限制,中国逆市发展也为我国中小企业的跨国经营奠定了基础,中小企业通过制定适合时宜的战略就可以利用危机带来的机遇实现跨国经营的目标。