巩固和发展扶贫攻坚成果 实现奔小康目标

实施《国家八七扶贫攻坚计划》后，广西贫困地区的经济和社会得到了快速发展。然而，一些已经解决温饱的农户，由于尚未建立稳定的收入来源，极易返贫。对策：充实和完善村级组织，选好“领头雁”；大搞农业综合开发，建设好“三田”；加强农产品流通工作，增加农民收入；扎实抓好小额信贷工作；落实中央政策，减轻农民负担；组织劳务输出，增加农民收入；搞好计划生育，减轻人口压力。     

Shaken or Stirred? Financial Deregulation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Norway

Is there a credit channel for monetary policy? Has the deregulation of financial markets had any temporary or permanent effects on the monetary transmission mechanism? We present empirical evidence on these issues for Norway by estimating a dynamic system of money, credit, real income and inflation. We find that the deregulation process has not caused any permanent shifts in the long‐run demand functions. Within a small simultaneous dynamic model, there is some evidence for the credit view of the monetary transmission mechanism, as both credit and money exhibit strong and stable effects on aggregate demand. JEL classification: E50; E44; C51     

金融危机背景下套利定价模型的浅析

金融危机给资本市场投资带来了更大的风险,也使得证券投资在定价分析上更加复杂化。从现代投资组合模型的演化和目前投资人普遍规避风险的倾向来看,套利定价模型是更有效的分析模型。投资者可以在结合资本市场实际情况和偏好的同时运用套利定价模型,以便在危机中做出理性的选择。     

Why Sweden's pension reform was able to be successfully implemented

Governments that do not reform pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension systems will eventually face a pension crisis. In a democracy, reforms require majority support. The problem is that pension reform requires today's generation to bear the burden to avoid burdening tomorrow's generation. Sweden recently passed pension legislation that specifies a gradual transition from a public defined-benefit plan to a defined contribution plan. Why was Sweden successful in reforming its pension system? We find that a political economy perspective helps to answer this question: there are more winners who would vote in favour of the reform than non-winners who would vote against it. When comparing the net effect (present value of expected benefits minus present value of remaining contributions) of the new and old systems, contributions of the working generation (age < 53) are reduced by more than their expected benefits.     

加快区域信用体系建设 促进地区经济和谐发展

文章阐明了在建设社会主义和谐社会中,区域信用体系建设的现实意义;列述了目前我国各地进行区域信用体系建设的实践形式和存在问题,最后,就所认识的五个问题作者提出了自己的研究看法。     

Pricing Bonds and Bond Options with Default Risk

The pricing of bonds and bond options with default risk is analysed in the general equilibrium model of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985). This model is extended by means of an additional parameter in order to deal with financial and credit risk simultaneously. The estimation of such a parameter, which can be considered as the market equivalent of an agencies' bond rating, allows to extract from current quotes the market perceptions of firm's credit risk. The general pricing model for defaultable zero-coupon bond is first derived in a simple discrete-time setting and then in continuous-time. The availability of an integrated model allows for the pricing of default-free options written on defaultable bonds and of vulnerable options written either on default-free bonds or defaultable bonds. A comparison between our results and those given by Jarrow and Turnbull (1995) is also presented.     

Is Acting Prosocially Beneficial for the Credit Market?

This article argues that behaving prosocially reduces regional finance differentials in terms of interest and insolvency rates. This is because prosociality implies more transparent information and cooperation among the parties engaged in a financial contract. The context of study is Italy, well known for its regional economic and financial disparities. The analysis is developed through a cross-regional two period panel model during the years 1998 and 2003. Empirical evidence shows that regions with a higher proportion of prosocial individuals report lower interest and insolvency rates. When legal enforcement is included in the specified model, evidence suggests that more efficient third-party enforcement can transmit a stronger sense of legal abidance and facilitate the internalisation of social norms of cooperation.     

金融危机对能源发展的影响及我国的应对策略

金融危机的爆发使得全球能源产业格局发生了重要变化,对全球能源新秩序产生了巨大影响。本文分析了金融危机对能源发展的影响及呈现的新特征,在此基础上提出我国的应对策略。     

China and the Global Financial Crisis： Assessing the Impacts and Policy Responses

The present paper explores the role of China in the creation of the current global financial crisis and the impacts of the crisis on its economy. It argues against the view that the ＂saving glut＂ in China （along with other Asian emerging economies） played a significant causal role in the crisis. The global financial crisis did not engender much damage in China＇s financial structure, thanks to the relatively closed, bank-centered financial system. However, the impacts on the ＂real＂ side of the Chinese economy were hard felt. Growth and employment have fallen, largely due to the decline in exports and foreign direct investment. The crisis reveals the vulnerability of the export-dependent growth pattern. Policy responses of the Chinese Government, including monetary, fiscal and social policies, have helped to stem the downfall of the economy in the immediate term, but some of the policies have not addressed the structural problems of the Chinese economy and might well aggravate such problems over time. The present paper proposes a tentative reform blueprint to rebalance the economy and to sustain long-term growth.     

The winner-loser anomaly: recent evidence from Greece

This article finds evidence of significant reversals in returns over the medium term in Greek stocks. In contrast with previous research, return reversals are more pronounced for past winners, suggesting that the market overreacts to a greater extent to good news. These contrarian returns are particularly elevated when portfolios are formed using quartiles and during tranquil and bull markets. The optimum contrarian strategy involves skipping the first 6 months of the holding period and implementing the contrarian strategy for a period of 18 months, as returns exhibit continuation followed by reversal. The profitability of the contrarian investment strategy is robust to adjustments for risk and seasonalities. It is the tranquil times and not the crisis/volatile times that generates a significant and profitable contrarian strategy. The recent credit crisis and resulting stock market falls, resulted in extreme movements in some Greek stocks and testing of the contrarian strategy problematic, especially when portfolios are decile ordered. Our findings also highlight the importance of survivorship bias and also suggest that contrarian strategies that just use market beta may be ill-equipped to take into consider extreme market movements, illiquidity and short-sales constraints.