Winners and Losers during a Deep Economic Crisis: Firm‐level Evidence from Indonesian Manufacturing*

What happens to firms during periods of deep economic crisis? Depending on the nature of the crisis, the general effects are well known. However, owing to data availability, there are relatively few detailed firm‐level studies. With the aid of an unusually rich database, the present paper investigates the effects of Indonesia's 1997–1998 crisis on manufacturing establishments. Consistent with studies of other crisis episodes, foreign ownership and prior export orientation are found to be highly significant determinants of survival and recovery. The effects of firm size are ambiguous. The industry in which firms are located, in particular its factor proportions, is also found to be significant.     

宏观经济因素对企业财务危机影响的实证分析

以上市公司息后经营现金流为负作为公司陷入财务危机的标志,选用1999~2007年符合条件的上市公司作为样本,利用随机效应Logistic面板数据模型,在考虑公司特质、行业因素的基础上,着重探讨宏观经济因素对于企业陷入财务危机的当前和滞后影响。实证结果表明,GDP增长率、真实贷款利率、信贷余额增长率和消费物价指数增长率四个宏观经济变量,其当年和滞后一、二年值对于公司陷入财务危机的概率有着不同的显著解释作用。     

国际金融监管历史变迁的启示

随着金融业的发展，金融监管也经历了由萌芽、全面监管，到放松监管，再到重新监管的演变过程。在这一演变过程中，金融机构与金融监管机构相互博弈、共同改革、共同进步，金融监管理念、监管手段也不断更新。金融监管不再仅仅是对金融机构进行监督管制、保护国家经济安全，更肩负起了引导金融改革、扶持金融机构加强国际竞争力、促进经济发展的重任。     

山东上市公司财务危机预警研究

以1998年ST制度实施后山东省被ST的上市公司为研究对象,配以上市时间相同或相近的省内财务健康公司做控制样本,选取财务指标和非财务指标通过二元Logit回归建立了预测准确率高的模型,体现盈利能力的总资产收益率预测效果最显著。     

论大学生诚信教育

本文以实证的手法,阐述了当代大学生在学习、就业和经济方面存在的诚信缺失的现象,深刻分析了产生该现象的历史背景和现实原因,在此基础上提出了加强大学生诚信教育的措施和对策:一是开展以诚信为主要内容的社会主义荣辱观教育;二是加强有关诚信的法律教育;三是加强师德教育,发挥教师诚实守信的表率作用;四是发挥大学生主体作用,坚持知行合一的实践原则。     

The Basic Ways of Solving the Problems of Underlying Liabilities of China＇s Endowment Insurance

The supply of basic pension is seriously lacking, the personal accounts is operated with no money. This is a problem belonging to conversion cost in essence. This paper points out that the government should undertake the responsibility to solve the problem by using the increment method and stock method to repay the latent liability; then the government can enrich the personal accounts in response to the aging population crisis and the concussion brought by the endowment insurance system＇s conversion.     

Digital Security Tokens and Their Derivatives

Digital objects in network commerce cause new credit risks (e.g., by an unpredictable certificate revocation). Financial theories can be used to estimate these risks but theories firstly need models. This paper models the objects as security token (setok). Each setok has its price, values, timestamp, and contents. Not only the price but also the values can be uncertain and cause risks. In order to hedge such risks, an option written on the value is introduced and priced. The pricing can be used to estimate parameters which describe the uncertainty. Discussions include how systematic the revocation risk is.     

企业财务信用缺失及其治理

我国企业中普遍存在着财务信用问题。企业财务信用产生的原因既有企业自身造成的,社会环境存在的缺陷造成的,又有法律及信用管理滞后造成的。本文认为,治理企业财务信用危机,提高企业信用水准,需要通过完善法制,强化全社会的道德意识,树立新型的企业经营理念,建立和加强企业内部财务信用管理,构建和逐步完善起我国财务信用管理系统,并形成有效的财务信用管理机制,从根本上治理和消除财务信用缺失,使市场经济健康有序地运行。     

浅议工程项目人力资源危机管理

工程项目往往具有建设周期长,投资大,回报期长,涉及多利益主体,存在多种风险因素的特点,在各类风险因素中,人力资源危机是其中一个很重要的危机源,文章分析了工程项目人力资源危机的原因、特点,并有针对性地提出了应对策略。     

国际贸易中信用证欺诈例外及相关法律问题

迄今为止,我国有关信用证欺诈例外的成文法制建设尚处于空白状态,为了更好地借鉴国外的经验完善国内体制,本文拟对信用证欺诈例外的产生、发展、特征及具体司法操作中何谓欺诈、欺诈例外的排除适用问题等作一系统研究,并就我国在司法实践中存在的问题进行探析,提出自己的一些看法。