Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors

In this paper, I investigate the development and determinants of CDS spreads for 18 major European banks between December 2001 and January 2004 applying factor analysis to daily data. Two clear-cut conclusions can be drawn. First, the dominating first common factor that explains 88 percent of all variation in the system, impacts on all banks in a similar direction. This suggests a strong market integration. However the size of the response of each bank’s CDS spread to the first common factor differs substantially, probably reflecting differences in individual bank’s exposure and riskiness. Second, the first common factor appears significantly related to the European P/E ratio and the European-wide 2-year nominal interest rate. This finding suggests that the common factor may be interpreted as a general indicator of market conditions. JEL Classification Numbers: G12, G15, G21, C30     

China＇s Current Real Estate Cycle and Potential Financial Risks

I. Introduction Since the late 1990s, the debate on China’s current real estate cycle has aroused great attention. The People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, initiated a series of macroeconomic management policies to prevent the real estate market from overheating. Since the real estate bubble in the early 1990s, the Chinese Government is conscious to attach great importance to the possible financial risks and corresponding shocks to China’s economy of the real estate market ove…     

Research on Enterprise Credit Ratings Issue in China

With gradually deep construction in social credit system, the function of enterprise credit rating becomes increasingly emergence in prompting credit risk, maintain finance stable and impel society credit system construction. But due to the enterprise credit consciousness is not strong, the function of government impels to be insufficient and the enthusiasm of commercial bank in using exterior rating outcome is not high, and some local enterprise credit rating service is still bare to survive. Therefore, only exerting the government impetus function, enhancing the credit rating organization public credit power, guiding the society to increase credit product demand and establishing an integrated supervisory system combined government supervision with industry autonomy, can further impel the credit rating industry steady development in China.     

PRICING EQUITY DERIVATIVES SUBJECT TO BANKRUPTCY

We solve in closed form a parsimonious extension of the Black–Scholes–Merton model with bankruptcy where the hazard rate of bankruptcy is a negative power of the stock price. Combining a scale change and a measure change, the model dynamics is reduced to a linear stochastic differential equation whose solution is a diffusion process that plays a central role in the pricing of Asian options. The solution is in the form of a spectral expansion associated with the diffusion infinitesimal generator. The latter is closely related to the Schrödinger operator with Morse potential. Pricing formulas for both corporate bonds and stock options are obtained in closed form. Term credit spreads on corporate bonds and implied volatility skews of stock options are closely linked in this model, with parameters of the hazard rate specification controlling both the shape of the term structure of credit spreads and the slope of the implied volatility skew. Our analytical formulas are easy to implement and should prove useful to researchers and practitioners in corporate debt and equity derivatives markets.     

信用卡客户价值模型分析

提出了信用卡客户历史价值模型、潜在价值模型和特约商户价值模型,分析了各种模型的有效性和可操作性。     

Empirical study on the financial repression of rural households＇ debit and credit and the effects on their welfare in less developed regions --Take Suqian city of Jiangsu province as an example

This paper carries out empirical analysis of the ration behavior of rural credit cooperatives in less developed regions in providing loan services to rural households. It also inspects the interaction between rural households＇ demand for credit and the loan supply from rural credit cooperatives with simultaneous discrete model. The performance of supporting agriculture through a new round reform of rural credit cooperatives is doubtable in this sample region.     

Linear Correlation and EVT: Properties and Caveats

Due to the current credit crisis, critical questions are beingasked concerning some of the quantitative methods used in riskmanagement under the Basel II proposals. In this paper I havegiven a critical look at Extreme Value Theory and Copulas. Boththeir potential applications and the possible caveats are discussed,and this mainly with the subprime crisis as a background.     

金融危机背景下医药批发企业物流管理对策研究

在金融危机背景下，我国医药批发企业面临新的挑战。如何应对挑战．已成为业界关注的焦点。采用调查法、归纳法、比较研究法、定性与定量相结合的方法，剖析医药批发企业的现状．分析其在金融危机背景下所面临的主要问题及影响因素．从物流管理的角度为医药批发企业应对挑战提供了具有可操作性的七种方法。     

Consumer credit and monetary policy in Malaysia

What is the impact of monetary policy on the Malaysian consumer? The study addresses this issue by empirically investigating the consequences of interest rate shocks on consumer credit in Malaysia. The study relies on the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition analysis based on the structural Vector Auto‐regression methodology. Apart from analysing the responses of aggregate consumer loans (ACL) to interest rate changes, further disaggregation is made in efforts to arrive at more detailed findings. In particular, the ACL data are categorized into loans for purchase of residential property, loans for personal uses, loans for credit cards, loans for purchase of consumer durables, loans for purchase of passenger cars and loans for purchase of securities. Through this disaggregation, the study shows the relative sensitivity of the various types of consumer loans to interest rate shocks.     

Dual long-memory, structural breaks and the link between turnover and the range-based volatility

This paper investigates the issue of temporal ordering of the range-based volatility and turnover volume in the Korean market for the period 1995–2005. We examine the dynamics of the two variables and their respective uncertainties using a bivariate dual long-memory model. We distinguish volume trading before the Asia financial crisis from trading after the crisis. We find that the apparent long-memory in the variables is quite resistant to the presence of breaks. However, when we take into account structural breaks the order of integration of the conditional variance series decreases considerably. Moreover, the impact of foreign volume on volatility is negative in the pre-crisis period but turns to positive after the crisis. This result is consistent with the view that foreign purchases tend to lower volatility in emerging markets—especially in the first few years after market liberalization when foreigners are buying into local markets—whereas foreign sales increase volatility. Before the crisis there is no causal effect for domestic volume on volatility whereas in the post-crisis period total and domestic volumes affect volatility positively. The former result is in line with the theoretical underpinnings that predict that trading within domestic investor groups does not affect volatility. The latter result is consistent with the theoretical argument that the positive relation between the two variables is driven by the uninformed general public.