农村金融资源分配扭曲的现象与对策——基于兰州市榆中县、永登县、皋兰县的数据分析

本文调查了兰州市榆中县、永登县、皋兰县的农村金融情况,发现在信息不对称和缺乏合规抵押物的情况下,农村信贷资源的分配存在着向高收入农民集中的情况。最需要得到信贷资源的中低收入农民却难以获得正规农村金融机构的信贷支持,转而求助于民间金融;对信贷需求不那么迫切的高收入农民却成为农村金融机构争抢的优质客户资源,造成农村金融市场供给和需求的脱节。本文认为要解决农村信贷资源分配扭曲的问题就必须降低农村金融的门槛、打破农村金融的垄断和给予民间金融以合法地位,并且建立一套惠农政策提高农民收入,改善农村金融的服务基础。     

信贷配给理论及其对中国银行业改革的启示

在商业银行占据主导地位的发展中国家中 ,由于现存金融市场的种种结构缺陷以及银行体系内外部建设的不完善 ,在发育成熟的金融市场出现以前 ,政府将被迫肩负着维持对银行部门部分控制的义务。     

基于熵权法和MADM的电力客户信用风险评价

电力客户的信用程度直接影响到供电企业的正常运营,也是保证我国电力工业健康发展的前提。因此,采用科学的方法对电力客户的信用进行评价具有重要的理论和现实意义。电力客户的信用风险评价是典型的多属性决策问题,决策者往往很难对每个评价指标赋予一个确定数值,但凭借经验可以给出大致范围。鉴于此,这篇论文在描述电力客户的各个属性值时采用了区间数的表示形式,随后,利用正态分布3σ原则,将区间数形式表示的属性值转化为单点值,运用熵权法确定出各评价指标的权重,最后计算各个电力客户的综合评价值并进行排序优选。实例研究结果表明这是一种科学实用的评价比较方法,为供电企业规避客户信用风险提供了重要的参考依据。     

货币经济学新范式下我国货币政策对信贷的影响

本文首先介绍并对比了传统货币经济学与新范式所持的观点,指出在由货币政策到信贷的传导过程中两者观点的主要不同之处在于传导方式和影响程度,新范式认为银行行为决定信贷总量并且在货币政策向信贷的传导过程中存在多种效应。其次基于VAR模型对我国货币政策对信贷量的影响进行了实证研究,结果表明新范式观点在我国现阶段基本正确。最后提出了相应的政策建议:在法定存款准备金政策的运用上,要把握稳、准、狠的原则;在利率政策的运用上,要着重强调对存贷利差的调节,引导银行的贷款行为。     

银行风险偏好对企业发展影响的实证研究

从行业层面和企业层面实证研究了银行信贷选择对行业和企业发展的影响。结果发现:在行业层面,银行偏好于固定资产比率较高的行业,因此在信贷资源较为紧张的地区,固定资产比率较高的行业会发展得较好,可见长期内银行选择会影响一个地区的产业结构;在公司层面,银行偏好于行业中固定资产比率较高的企业,而企业为了获得信贷资源也会调整其发展策略,倾向于积累固定资产。指出:中国应该大力发展非银行融资渠道,减弱金融系统对经济发展的扭曲。     

助贷违约学生行为成因及防范对策研究

国家助学贷款为高校贫困生完成学业、促进教育公平起到很大的作用,但我国在实施国家助学贷款政策过程中,由于有的学生偿还能力较低、偿还意愿较差,贷款制度设计欠缺,社会信用环境不佳等原因,发生学生助学贷款违约行为,贷款违约率较高,加大了政府、高校和银行管理成本,制约着助学贷款的持续良性发展。解决这些问题,应从提高高校教育质量、增强学生诚信意识、建立社会信用体系、完善贷款制度设计、健全高校资助制度等方面采取有效措施。     

Firm credit in the euro area: a tale of three crises

Using survey data from 2009 to 2011, we analyse the effects of the recent euro area economic, financial and private debt crisis on the supply of and demand for bank finance for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). At the country level, we identify three distinct aspects of the recent crisis in the euro area affecting firm credit through different channels. Controlling for country fixed effects, the impact of a weak real economy on firm credit operates both by reducing firms’ demand for bank financing and by lenders increasing loan rejections and tightening terms and conditions on credit allocated. On the other hand, financial conditions have no significant effect on demand, but they do affect credit supply as we find that financial tensions worsen the chances of obtaining credit and its terms and conditions. We interpret this as evidence of a bank balance sheet channel negatively impacting credit provision. We find that private sector indebtedness has important effects on SMEs’ credit access and its terms and conditions.     

Credit growth,current account and financial depth

Exploring the determinants and dynamics of the current account balance is one of the priorities of academic literature and policy circles. Although the effects of structural variables are deeply analysed, a lesser attention has been paid to the impact of financial variables. Drawing on standard empirical current account models and with a large sample of industrial and developing countries, we report a significant deterioration in the current account balance in case of an increase in the credit growth. Moreover, we find that this link is substantially stronger for the developing ones motivating a closer examination. Therefore, we further advance our analysis and show that credit growth causes a stronger impact on the current account balance for lower levels of financial depth. In other words, at the early stages of financial development, acceleration in the credit growth might cause a larger deterioration in the current account balance; thus, it might be suggested that monetary policy and macro-prudential measures aimed at preventing financial excess might be more effective to reduce the external imbalances at the early stages of financial deepening.     

From real estate to consumption: the role of credit markets in the USA

The aim of this article is to test whether the credit market conditions affect the strength of transmission of real estate wealth effects on household consumption in the US economy. Although many different works have dealt with the analysis of the existence of a real estate wealth effect, most of them as a reaction to the dramatic increase of housing prices in several OECD countries, there are only few papers analysing whether the consumption response depends on the positive or negative sign of the wealth shock and, as far as we know, none of them takes the effects of credit market conditions on that asymmetric response into account. This article tries to fill the existing gap in the literature on this matter. From an econometric perspective, we estimate the asymmetries in the consumption response within the momentum threshold autoregressive model (M-TAR) proposed by Enders and Siklos (2001), but following Stevans (2004), it is applied to a multivariate framework. The main results show that the credit market conditions play a significant role in the transmission of changes in real estate wealth to consumption. In addition, we find that there exists an asymmetric behaviour in the US aggregate consumption spending responses to real estate wealth and credit market shocks, which is only significant when a negative shock takes place.     

Credit constraints and margins of import: first evidence for German manufacturing enterprises

This study uses tailor-made enterprise-level data for 2008–2010 from various sources for firms from manufacturing industries to test for the link between credit constraints, measured by a credit rating score provided by a leading credit rating agency, and imports in Germany for the first time. We find empirical evidence that a better credit rating score is positively related to extensive margins of import – firms with a better score have a higher probability to import, they import more goods and they source from more countries of origin. The intensive margin of imports – the share of imports in total sales – is found not to be related to credit constraints.