商业银行信用风险评估的生存分析模型及实证研究

企业发生财务危机，不能归还到期贷款是商业银行信贷资产的主要风险来源，商业银行如何构建恰当的信用风险评估模型来预测企业的财务危机，从而避免这类信用风险的出现就显得尤为重要。本文以我国上市公司为研究对象，结合杜邦分析法建立了基于生存分析的信用风险评估模型，模型对于随机选取的预测样本，其提前1年、2年和3年的预测准确率分别达到86％、72％和68％。通过与Ahman模型、Ohlson模型预测结果的比较和鲁棒性检验的结果发现，该模型同时具有可以使用时间序列、无需样本配对、中远期预测能力强和高鲁棒性的特点．这些特点特别对于商业银行中长期信贷风险管理具有较高的应用价值．     

农村信用社产权制度改革:理论、绩效与出路

农村信用社产权制度改革不仅是一个金融问题,而且是一个复杂的社会问题.长期以来我国农村信用社按照合作制进行规范绩效差的主要原因是,农村信用社产权制度改革的国家偏好和农民的接受程度之间存在着巨大的矛盾.文章建议通过稳定农村信用社的经营、拉长农村信用社产权制度改革的周期、完善农村信用社产权制度改革的外部环境、增加农村信用社产权制度改革的途径等四个方面的措施来推动我国农村信用社的产权制度改革.     

美国高校会计的特征及其启示

传统上美国高校会计制度采用"双轨制"方法,私立大学遵从财务会计准则委员会的准则,公立大学采用政府会计准则委员会的准则,二者一般都采用"基金"会计核算方法.近年来,财务会计准则委员会和政府会计准则委员会制定的有关高校会计信息披露法规出现了融合的趋势,两类高校会计信息披露的内容开始向企业会计靠拢.我国高校会计改革应吸收美国已有的成果,应尽量缩小与企业会计的差别.     

The Impact of Basel II on Lending to Small- and Medium-Sized Firms: A Regulatory Policy Assessment Based on Spanish Credit Register Data

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact on bank credit exposures to small- and medium-sized Spanish firms of the current proposal for reform of the 1988 Capital Accord using information from the Spanish Credit Register. Capital requirements for exposures to those firms, according to the various revisions of the proposed capital reform (from the January 2001 consultative document to the April 2003 one), are calculated to analyze whether the existing pattern of bank financing of small- and medium-sized firms might be altered. Finally, the incentives for individual banks to adopt the advanced internal ratings-based approach proposed by Basel II are evaluated.     

Mutual fund characteristics, managerial attributes, and fund performance

This study provides a comprehensive examination of recent mutual fund performance by analyzing a large set of both mutual funds and fund attributes in an effort to link performance to fund-specific characteristics. The results indicate that the hypothesized relationships between performance and the explanatory variables are generally upheld. After taking into consideration general market conditions and fund investment objective, the characteristic variables that relate to fund popularity, growth, cost, and management also explain performance. Finally, after controlling for survivorship and benchmark error as well as fund-specific factors, the results refute the performance persistence phenomenon.     

浅析房地产开发企业融资方式之变革

中央人民银行出台《关于进一步加强房地产信贷业务管理的通知》，引发了房地产开发企业融资方式的变化，房地产开发企业应对当前融资环境变化，采取切实可行的融资渠道和资金运营方法，今后将成为主流房地产项目融资方式有：房地产信托投资、房地产企业上市、房地产基金、债券融资和住宅抵押贷款证券化等。     

房地产融资渠道分析

由于国家银根收缩，房地产融资难度增大，加上中国房地产金融体系尚未完善，融资渠道狭窄，在一定程度上限制了我国房地产业的发展。房地产业需要新的融资渠道，如信托、基金、债券等取代传统的银行贷款融资模式。针对新的市场现状，各房地产企业必须加强资本运作能力，扩大融资渠道，创新金融产品。     

The Credit Channel at the Zero Lower Bound through the Lens of Equity Prices

This study examines the impact of unconventional monetary policies on the stock market when the short‐term nominal interest rate is stuck at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Unconventional monetary policies appear to have significant effects on stock prices and the effects differ across stocks. In agreement with existing credit channel theories, I find that firms subject to financial constraints react more strongly to unconventional monetary policy shocks [especially large‐scale asset purchases (LSAPs)] than do less constrained firms. These results imply that the credit channel is as important as the interest rate channel in the transmission of unconventional monetary policies at the ZLB.     

Moments of renewal shot-noise processes and their applications

In this paper, we study the family of renewal shot-noise processes. The Feynmann–Kac formula is obtained based on the piecewise deterministic Markov process theory and the martingale methodology. We then derive the Laplace transforms of the conditional moments and asymptotic moments of the processes. In general, by inverting the Laplace transforms, the asymptotic moments and the first conditional moments can be derived explicitly; however, other conditional moments may need to be estimated numerically. As an example, we develop a very efficient and general algorithm of Monte Carlo exact simulation for estimating the second conditional moments. The results can be then easily transformed to the counterparts of discounted aggregate claims for insurance applications, and we apply the first two conditional moments for the actuarial net premium calculation. Similarly, they can also be applied to credit risk and reliability modelling. Numerical examples with four distribution choices for interarrival times are provided to illustrate how the models can be implemented.     

Examining the disclosures on the websites of English credit unions

This paper examines the disclosures made on English credit unions’ websites. Credit unions without a website are presumed to be small. Community credit unions with websites tend to offer basic services with a limited range of products that may appeal to poorer members of society. Occupational credit unions appear more likely to have a greater range of products.