Hot money in disaggregated capital flows

We explore the possible existence and behavior of hot money in six categories of disaggregated bilateral capital flows (equity inflows, equity outflows, bond inflows, bond outflows, banking credit inflows, and banking credit outflows) for 12 emerging markets vis-à-vis the US from 1995 to 2012 and provides several new findings. First, we identify the existence of hot money in all six categories above and conclude that both gross inflows and gross outflows can be the sources of hot money. Second, hot money in equity inflows (outflows) engages in positive (negative) feedback trading regarding local stock market returns. Third, some categories of hot money have a temporary influence on local stock market returns while the others have a permanent influence, supporting the explanations of both price pressures and information advantage. Finally, local stock market returns in half of our sample countries, which have tightened capital controls during the late 2000s global financial crisis (GFC), are more affected by hot money than in the other half. Our findings confirm several popular conjectures of hot money, and endorse the use of capital controls to limit financial vulnerability in the run-up to and during the GFC.     

Marriage between credit cards and the Internet: Buying is just a click away!

This paper examines whether Internet access positively affects credit card balances. To that end, we compare the 2010 and 2013 Surveys of Consumer Finances, analyze the consistency of the results over time, and provide the rationale for any resulting differences. Using the censored techniques, our results indicate that Internet access has a positive effect on credit card balances, which suggests that consumers with Internet access are prone to higher balances compared to those without. The probability of carrying positive balances was larger in 2010 compared to 2013. Overall, the results suggest that, while the financial crisis might have contributed to higher balances in 2010, the economic recovery afterward seems to have eased the burden of credit card debt.     

Investments,Credit, and Corporate Financial Distress: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

Although they are instrumental for economic development, productivity-enhancing corporate investments may increase the financial vulnerability of companies, especially in an economic and financial crisis. We employ an instrumental probit model with the aim of finding evidence for the investment and credit patterns that led companies into financial distress during the global financial crisis 2009–2010. The company-level micro-data for our study on three Central and East European countries—Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and two Baltic countries, Latvia and Lithuania—originates from two independent surveys, the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey conducted in 2008 and the Financial Crisis Survey conducted in 2009/2010. Both were carried out jointly by the EBRD and the World Bank. Our results emphasize a substantial adverse impact from investment intensity and debt financing on company financial soundness during a crisis. On top of that, we discover a strong non-linear pattern in the sensitivity of company distress to its investment-financing nexus.     

Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda

This article provides a comprehensive review of scholarly research on credit risk measurement during the last 57 years applying bibliometric citation analysis and elaborates an agenda for future research. The bibliography is compiled using the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science (WOS) database and includes all articles with citations over the period 1960–2016. Specifically, the review is carried out using 1695 articles across 72 countries published in 442 journals by 2928 authors. The findings suggest that credit risk research is multifaceted and can be classified into six streams: (1) defaultable security pricing, (2) default intensity modeling, (3) comparative analysis of credit models, (4) comparative analysis of credit markets, (5) credit default swap (CDS) pricing, and (6) loan loss provisions. The article contributes through synthesizing and identifying existing as well as emerging research streams.     

信贷供给、资产配置及企业绩效——来自中国制造业上市公司的证据

近些年,中国“金融与实体经济”的研究愈发成为热点。宏观层面,资金“脱实入虚”“金融空转”的讨论亦此起彼伏。然而,针对微观层面的企业资金“脱实入虚”的研究则寥寥无几。本文选取2003—2016年中国A股制造业上市公司的年度报告数据,利用2009年宏观调控措施营造的“准自然实验”环境,采用双重差分方法探究在资金资源充足的前提下,企业配置金融资产的倾向性,并进一步研究企业绩效的后续变化情况。实证结果表明,当制造业企业获得更多的信贷资金支持,同时缺乏有效的外部监管时,企业更倾向于配置金融资产,金融活动也会在企业的日常生产经营中扮演愈发重要的角色。在此基础上,企业的主营业务却未得到发展,反而盈利能力、成长能力均受到损害,且后者受到的影响更大,即进行过多金融投资对中国A股制造业上市公司的远期影响更为深重。基于上述结论,本文从实体经济从业者、资金提供方以及监管层三个角度提出了相关政策建议。     

试论农民教育消费力——以高等教育消费力为例

我国农民教育消费力低下对农民的生产、生活造成很大负面影响,应采取多种措施提高农民教育消费力,这对维护社会公平、构建社会主义和谐社会具有重要意义.     

农民专业合作社信贷难成因及对策研究——以广东省为例

在发展壮大过程中,大多数农民专业合作社会遇到信贷难题。通过对广东省农民专业合作社的调查,得到有效数据,文章从4个方面入手对广东省的农民专业合作社信贷难成因及其对策进行分析。分析结果表明以下几个因素是形成广东省农民专业合作社信贷难的成因:(1)省内农村金融支持与服务供给不足,金融机构的服务产品缺乏多样性;(2)信贷政策与信贷产品无法根据农民专业合作社的特点而随机应变,缺乏创新性产品;(3)政府对农民专业合作社信贷扶持的配套措施落实不到位;(4)农业专业合作社的信用水平有待提升。针对以上引起信贷难的成因,提出应对策略与建议:(1)加强金融支持的供给,优化金融机构服务,保障正规信贷资金到位;(2)针对农民专业合作社的需求层次,创新信贷品种,贴近市场,着力推进农村金融创新与发展;(3)政府部门对农民专业合作社信贷给予充分的支持与鼓励,逐步完善金融支持政策环境;(4)农民专业合作社要主动提升自身水平,增强自身经济实力,提高自身盈利能力,实现可持续发展。     

基于Elman神经网络的商业银行信贷风险识别及评估模型

建立了基于Elman神经网络的商业银行信贷风险识别及评估模型,并通过实例验证了模型的准确性和可靠性。研究过程及结果表明,基于Elman神经网络的商业银行信贷风险识别及评估模型能够很好地反映信贷过程中的非线性因素,准确地预测出完整的信贷风险评估指标和信用等级之间的映射关系,能快速评估和有效减低商业的信贷风险。一组实例结果显示该评估模型的准确率接近90％。     

从信用繁荣到大萧条的演化及其启示

信用快速扩张和乐观情绪交织导致经济繁荣,贸易顺差快速增长,本币升值。本国为了减轻本币升值的压力,采用更宽松的货币政策,导致房地产泡沫和股市泡沫。信用支撑的繁荣必然导致资源错配,坏账大量积累,迫使商业信用和银行信用的停止,生产和消费不能继续,大萧条降临。要保持国民经济持续、快速发展,必须控制信用规模,走共同富裕的道路。     

信用修复国际比较研究

在社会信用体系中,信用修复机制是适用失信主体改正自新、为其重塑信用的新方式,是信用惩戒的有机组成.通过梳理信用修复的定义、原则、对象及作用,从信用修复立法、不良信息保存、异议及投诉处理机制、信用修复机构设立等方面比较分析美国、英国、韩国和中国的信用修复机制,同时分析英美在信用修复监管、美韩及中国在诚信教育、韩国及中国在...