气候变化下湖北省稻谷生长期降雨量指数保险设计

[目的]气候变化对我国粮食生产造成巨大损失,传统农业保险存在较多问题,天气指数农业保险作为金融创新工具,成为转移农业天气风险的有力路径。[方法]文章在分析降雨量指数保险合约设计思路的基础上,依照天气指数保险合约定义,选取稻谷生长期每日降水的累积降雨量作为天气指标,采用经济—气候模型和湖北省78个县市的面板数据,按风险区域分别设计了干旱指数保险合约和暴雨灾害指数保险合约。[结果]虽然湖北省全省累积降水的影响总体是负向的,但累积降水量对稻谷单产在十堰、襄阳等干旱区域的边际影响是正向的、显著的,累积降水量在暴雨集中区域江汉平原地区、咸宁市及辖内县市,有着显著的负向影响。[结论]气候变化对粮食生产的影响显著,根据面板数据的估计结果,有必要按不同的风险区域分别设计天气指数保险合约。该文的研究在天气指数保险设计方面做出了一定的探索,进一步使天气指数保险合约成为转移农业天气风险的有力创新工具。     

中国名山旅游气候资源及气象景观评价

分别从发生学、外部形态、位置高度对名山气象景观进行了分类,选取了我国六大名山,对其气象景观类型和旅游气候资源进行了分析,提出了评价名山气象景观的量化方法,把名山气象景观分为3个等级,对我国六大名山进行了评价,结果表明该方法在名山气象景观评价中具有很好的应用价值。     

Optimal Insurance Against Climatic Experience

An optimal insurance contract against a climatic risk is derived in the presence of an uninsurable and dependent aggregate production risk. The optimal design depends on the stochastic dependency between both sources of uncertainty and on the producer's attitude towards risk, especially on his prudent behavior. Rational weather insurance purchasing decisions are also derived. The prudent producer responds to actuarially fair weather insurance by increasing his exposure towards risk.     

危险品运输及其决策支持系统研究

参考了20世纪80年代以来有关危险品运输风险分析与决策支持系统的主要研究文献,总结和介绍了风险评估的标准、决策支持系统的主要框架,以及GIS等现代信息技术在危险品运输管理中的应用。     

State‐contingent analysis of farmers’ response to weather variability: irrigated dairy farming in the Murray Valley,Australia

The agricultural sector is commonly regarded as one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Current understanding of the impact of climate change on this sector relies on the underlying assumptions about farmers’ possible responses to weather variability, including changes in crop choice, input combinations and land management practices. Many previous analyses rely on the implicit (and restrictive) assumption that farmers operate under a fixed technology set across different states of nature. This assumption, represented through stochastic production or profit functions, is commonly made but seldom tested and may understate farmers’ responses to climate change if state‐contingent production technologies are, in reality, more flexible. The potential for farmers to adapt production technologies in response to unforeseen events is at the core of the state‐contingent approach. Advanced in Chambers and Quiggin (2000), the theory contends that producers can manage uncertainty through the allocation of productive inputs to different states of nature. In this article, we test the assumption that farmers’ observed behaviour is consistent with the state‐contingent production theory using farm‐level data from Australia. More precisely, we estimate the milk production technology for a sample of irrigated dairy farms from the southern Murray–Darling Basin over the period from 2006–2007 to 2009–2010.     

沙尘暴对人体健康的影响及防治措施

沙尘暴是我国北方主要的灾害性天气。沙尘天气可造成烟尘与粉尘携带细菌侵入人体呼吸道,沉积在人体的肺部,引发呼吸道疾病并被肺泡吸收进入血液循环,导致其他器官疾病,危害人的身体健康。本文从沙尘暴天气的形成及对人体健康影响入手,提出了指导性的防治措施。     

大唐克旗#3机组电气整套启动试验危险点分析

发电机组的电气整套试验是一种综合性试验,主要包括发变组短路试验、发变组空载试验、励磁系统试验、同期系统试验等试验项目。在整个电气整套试验的过程中,该机组存在着一些可能导致机组试验失败和人身设备安全的危险点,通过对这些危险点的分析处理,可以为其他试运机组出现同类现象提供借鉴和参考。     

略论发展我国天气衍生产品市场

作为金融工程创新的结晶,天气衍生产品在防范由非灾难性天气因素产生的风险方面显示了巨大的活力和创造性。在我国发展天气风险市场,将有利于保障我国重要行业的发展,推动金融市场和资本市场的繁荣,提高我国在国际市场的竞争力。     

Assessment of non-recurrent congestion caused by precipitation using archived weather and traffic flow data

Since precipitation has a negative impact on traffic congestion, there have been various studies for modeling the relationship between precipitation and its impact on traffic flow. However, due to limitations on existing data, none of the previous studies have accounted for the estimation of the total delay caused by precipitation. The objective of this study is to estimate the non-recurrent traffic congestion on freeways caused by precipitation. To accomplish this objective, archived weather and traffic data for the year 2008 from the Korean Freeway Systems was collected and analyzed. As a result, non-recurrent traffic congestion was about 1.6 million vehicle-hours due to rainfall and 186,000 vehicle-hours due to snowfall in 2008. In addition, simple analyses were performed to describe the average non-recurrent traffic congestion per unit distance as a function of precipitation and a function of the time period of precipitation. Although precipitation events might not be handled by human efforts, these results will assist in making strategic plans such as active speed management and contingency planning for mitigating traffic congestion due to precipitation.     

基于国产DSP“魂芯一号”的天气雷达信号处理器设计

中国电子科技集团公司第三十八研究所研发了首款国产高端数字信号处理芯片“魂芯一号”(BWDSP100),为了打破国外高端芯片的垄断,该国产信号处理器在天气雷达中的应用具有重要意义。在自主开发的软件环境中,通过傅里叶变换法、脉冲对法和批处理方法等3种处理模式实现了天气雷达回波参数估计的处理过程,硬件上利用了“魂芯一号”,它具有4个核并行处理,能高效实时完成3种主要处理模式。论证结果表明,“魂芯一号”在精度和速度上均优于国外高端信号处理器。国产信号处理器应用于天气雷达上将突出其优越的实用价值。