基于ARMA模型的气温衍生品定价研究：以武汉市为例

随着气候异常变化频率的增加以及极端天气事件的频繁发生,天气风险对农业的影响尤其严重,天气风险管理成为了关注的热点.天气衍生品作为国外进行天气风险管理和转移的金融创新工具,为应对天气风险提供了重要的途径,定价问题则是天气衍生品研究中的核心问题.本文使用武汉市1990.1.1-2009.12.31的每日气温数据,采用了基于ARMA的时间序列模型分析了武汉市气温动态变化的过程,对模型进行了估计、检验了模型的预测准确度,结果表明：ARMA模型具有较好的拟合优度,能以此为基础对气温期权等天气衍生产品进行合理定价.基于以上分析,本文提出应提供有利的技术环境、政策环境和制度环境以推进农业天气衍生品开发与市场发展的政策建议.     

试析人类耗用能源对气候变暖的贡献

在对地球气候变暖原因的探讨中，人们较注意“温室气体”的贡献，但与“温室气体”排放几乎同时进行的巨额热量的释放也是不应 忽视的；由205个国家和地区在1年内消耗的商品能源量数据。计算出每年释放的热量相当于地球接受30分钟的太阳辐射量，在绝热情况下可使全球陆地2m厚的表层、全球海洋2m深的水体和全球大气温度提高0.06℃；对上述结果进行了讨论。     

Agricultural disaster payments in the southeastern US: do weather and climate variability matter?

Governments around the world are forced to react to disasters caused by weather. The agricultural sector is particularly susceptible to weather extremes and adverse climate conditions. In the US, agricultural disaster payments account for a significant part of total agricultural subsidies. The payments, and their distribution, are more important in the areas most affected by disastrous weather events, usually coinciding with areas of pronounced impact of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this article, the impact of weather and climate, as well as some economic variables, on disaster payments is analysed using county level data from four states in the southeastern United States. The results suggest that weather and climate variables explain most of the crop disaster payments at the county level while socioeconomic variables do not, suggesting that advancements in weather and climate forecasts could be helpful in planning for disaster compensation.     

我国危险货物运输标准体系及几个重要问题

文章就我国危险货物基础标准及标准体系间的渊源及发展进行探讨，结合现行危险货物和危险化学品标准的基本状况，就其修订和使用中的一些重要原则和关键问题提出建议。     

“危险驾驶”行为不宜独立设罪——对刑法修正案（八）第二十二条的评析

危险驾驶行为有巨大的社会危险性,刑法修正案（八）将飙车、醉酒驾驶等危险驾驶行为纳入刑法打击的范围,迎合了社会公众要求打击此类行为的舆论。但是,单独设立危险驾驶罪有悖刑法谦抑性,会造成刑法规范之间的不协调和实践操作上的困难。通过解释和完善现有刑法规范,完全可以满足对高危驾驶行为进行刑事处罚的需要。因此,在刑法中单设危险驾驶罪没有必要。     

Tourist Perceptions of Climate Change: A Study of International Tourists in Zanzibar

A study was conducted in Zanzibar, Tanzania, in order to understand tourist perceptions of climate change, the importance of climate for travel decisions, and the likely consequences of ongoing climate change for travel decisions. The results show that climatic characteristics of destinations are important, though not the only factor shaping travel decisions. Under a scenario of climate change, certain climate variables, such as more rain, storms, and higher humidity are also likely to negatively influence travel decisions, rather than higher temperatures alone, which are not necessarily perceived as negative. Regarding the contribution of travel to climate change, the study reveals that leisure tourists in Zanzibar are largely unaware of their impact on the natural environment, while the analysis of stated travel behaviour shows that they frequently travel by air. Overall, the results indicate that travel flows might change in more complex ways than currently assumed, and that a small share of high-intensity air travellers is responsible for a considerable environmental impact in terms of climate change.     

高速公路地质灾害危险性评估及其防治对策研究——以青兰高速公路邯郸至涉县段为例

地质灾害危险性评估是对高速公路建设可能遇到的地质灾害或诱发新的地质灾害进行预测或评估,提出防治措施,为项目的建设提供科学依据。文章以青兰高速公路邯郸至涉县段地质灾害危险性评估为例,介绍了岩溶塌陷,采空塌陷及伴生的地裂缝,膨胀土胀缩,泥石流,崩塌,黄土湿陷等地质灾害危险性评估的目的、依据、范围及防治措施。     

基于支持向量回归的现代气象雷达寿命预测

为了准确地预测气象雷达使用寿命, 提高气象雷达运行可靠性、安全性和可维护性, 提出了一种新的基于多元回归的气象雷达使用寿命预测框架。在该框架内,采用了支持向量 回归(SVR)方法来求解气象雷达使用寿命的多元回归问题;提出了基于SVR的气象雷达特征参 数选择FSSSVR（Feature Subset Selection SVR）算法去掉冗余和无效的特征参数。实验结 果表明,基于SVR方法的预测算法能够准确地预测气象雷达的使用寿命,能够为雷达全寿命 周期管理提供参考依据。     

Well-being effects of extreme weather events in the United States

The increase in weather and climate disasters in recent years has prompted an interest in analyzing their consequences and the mitigation and adaptation measures that can help minimize their potentially large impacts on individuals’ welfare. We match thirty-one billion-dollar disasters with individual survey data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to estimate the effect of extreme weather events on the subjective well-being of U.S. residents. Our results indicate that natural disasters have a negative and robust impact on subjective well-being in the affected communities, and that, on average, this impact peaks 6 months after the event, and then decays over time. We then investigate the attenuating impact of health care access, flood insurance, and governmental assistance programs and find a partial compensating role for risk-transfer and relief measures. We also find that stronger emotional and social support mitigates the negative impact of natural disasters.     

铁路危险品运输过程中不安全因素的识别与控制

通过对铁路危险品运输过程的分析,从人、机、货、环境、管理五个方面对不安全因素进行了识别。从工程技术、教育、强制三个方面提出了控制措施,提出构建铁路危险品运输监测系统框架,为铁路危险品的安全运输提供了依据。