Calibration of deterministic NWP forecasts and its impact on verification

Deterministic forecasts (as opposed to ensemble or probabilistic forecasts) issued by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models require post-processing. Such corrective procedure can be viewed as a form of calibration. It is well known that, based on different objective functions, e.g., minimizing the mean square error or the mean absolute error, the calibrated forecasts have different impacts on verification. In this regard, this paper investigates how a calibration directive can affect various aspects of forecast quality outlined in the Murphy–Winkler distribution-oriented verification framework. It is argued that the correlation coefficient is the best measure for the potential performance of NWP forecast verification when linear calibration is involved, because (1) it is not affected by the directive of linear calibration, (2) it can be used to compute the skill score of the linearly calibrated forecasts, and (3) it can avoid the potential deficiency of using squared error to rank forecasts. Since no single error metric can fully represent all aspects of forecast quality, forecasters need to understand the trade-offs between different calibration strategies. To echo the increasing need to bridge atmospheric sciences, renewable energy engineering, and power system engineering, as to move toward the grand goal of carbon neutrality, this paper first provides a brief introduction to solar forecasting, and then revolves its discussion around a solar forecasting case study, such that the readers of this journal can gain further understanding on the subject and thus potentially contribute to it.     

Asset Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing: Disaster-coping Strategies in Noncontiguous and Contiguous Destitute Areas

Do households sell assets in order to smooth consumption? The empirical evidence is mixed. Using household- and village-level data in the context of China's poverty alleviation policy, we analyze the relationship between climate shocks and household coping behaviors from the perspective of whether coping strategies to deal with weather shocks are sensitive to the contiguity of destitute areas. Our results indicate that, unlike households living in noncontiguous destitute areas, households struck by weather shocks in contiguous destitute areas tended not to reduce or liquidate assets. To overcome weather shocks, households in contiguous destitute areas instead reduced household consumption, such as food consumption and increased nonfarm working hours. Our findings point to the possibility that the implicit assumption of consumption smoothing coupled with a failure to incorporate explicitly the factor of contiguous regions has led to seemingly divergent findings in the literature regarding consumption smoothing.     

Risk effects of GM corn: Evidence from crop insurance outcomes and high-dimensional methods

This study evaluates whether genetically modified (GM) corn hybrids with rootworm resistant traits (GM-RW) have lower yield risk. A crop insurance actuarial performance measure, the loss cost ratio (LCR), is used to represent yield risk. High-dimensional methods are utilized in this study to maintain parsimony in the empirical specification, and facilitate estimation. Specifically, we employ the Cluster-Lasso (cluster-least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) procedure. This method produces uniformly valid inference on the main variable of interest (i.e., the GM-RW variable) in a high-dimensional panel data setting even in the presence of heteroskedastic, non-Gaussian, and clustered error structures. After controlling for a large set of potential weather confounders using Cluster-Lasso, we find consistent evidence that GM corn hybrids with rootworm resistant traits have lower yield risk.     

Early growing season weather variation,expectation formation and agricultural land allocation decisions in Ethiopia

Using unique crop-specific data gathered over 7 years, we study if and how maize-producing farmers in Ethiopia adjust their land allocation decisions in response to pre-planting-season weather variations. We show that farmers adjust their land allocation decisions in response to increased temperatures early in the growing season. In addition to quantifying a substantial adaptation margin that has not been documented before, our study also reveals the presence of a weather variation-induced expansion of maize production into areas that are less suitable for maize cultivation.     

Dust storms and human well-being

Dust storms are extreme weather events that can lead to sharp short-duration reductions in environmental quality. Is the US and elsewhere, dust storms are becoming more frequent due to climate change and altered land-use patterns. However, our present understanding of their impacts to social welfare is limited. To address this gap, I undertake the first nationwide US study of dust storm impacts on subjective well-being using life satisfaction (LS) data from the CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) over 2005–2010. I find that LS is lower by 0.008 points on a 4-point scale on days when a dust storm occurred in a respondent’s county-of-residence, as identified by the National Weather Service. The observed LS impact is precisely estimated; occurring only on a dust storm event day and not the days immediately before or after. I calculate that individuals are willing-to-pay $111 to avoid a single dust storm event day, on the basis of the estimated well-being externality. I also show that public dust storm alerts on event days can offset more than 50% of the negative LS effect, suggestive of an important role for public risk communication.     

时空环境因素对无信号交叉口事故严重程度的异质性影响

为了明确无信号控制交叉口事故的诱发机理、降低事故损失，对美国西南部某州2016年7月至2020年12月的5 956起发生在无信号交叉口的事故数据进行统计分析，构建考虑均值和方差异质性的随机参数Logit模型，并分别针对白昼事故和夜间事故，选取周时间、季节、道路空间因素和环境因素作为影响因素，对模型进行参数估计和边际效应分析。结果表明：夏季对昼夜事故的严重程度有异质性影响；恶劣天气条件仅对夜间事故严重程度存在异质性影响，伴随大雾或者强风的降雨天气是加剧事故严重程度的最主要原因，且影响因素在春、夏季节的交互作用更加复杂；人行横道、交通稳静化措施对轻伤、重伤事故有助于减少人员在事故中的受伤概率；大型交通枢纽以及特殊状态下的路段附近，易发生人员伤亡事故。研究结果可为交通安全改善措施的制定提供参考，为降低道路交通事故风险提供新思路。     

Climate,weather and child health in Burkina Faso

It is now clear that anthropogenic climate change is having a negative impact on human health. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive assessment of the impact of climatic stressors on child health in Burkina Faso. We undertake a rigorous empirical analysis of the impact of climate and weather shocks on mortality, stunting (height-for-age Z-score) and wasting (weight-for-age Z-score), using Demographic and Health Surveys, combined with high-resolution meteorological data, controlling for household and individual covariates. We find robust evidence that both lifetime and short-term exposure to high temperatures and droughts have a negative impact on child health, as do increased temperature anomalies during crop seasons, suggesting a link between climate and health through domestic food production. Income and household wealth, access to electricity, sanitation and a health facility for childbirth negate some adverse impacts of climate change. Combining our econometric estimates with updated CMIP6 scenarios, we compute policy-relevant projections of future child health. Our results show that future warming is projected to significantly increase child mortality, and share of underweight and stunted children, in all but the Paris Agreement scenario. Given the links between health, a key element of human capital, and economic growth, our findings and projections provide yet more evidence of the importance of a rapid reduction in global emissions combined with adaptation funding, if lower-income countries are to achieve poverty reduction and increasing prosperity.