Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

网络口碑信息对消费者购买决策的影响：一个实验研究

本文通过实验法考察了网络口碑信息对消费者购买决策的影响，就网络口碑的影响力在口碑信息类型、传播方向和产品涉入度不同的情况下会表现出哪些差异等问题作了分析。实验结果支持了所提出的6项假设，网络口碑信息对于消费者购买决策的影响力可能会随着口碑传播方向、信息类型以及产品卷入度的不同而呈现出显著差异的预测得到了证实；信息类型、传播方向和产品卷入度之间所存在的交互效应也会明显地作用到网络口碑对消费者购买决策的影响效果。     

冲动性购买行为的实证分析及其营销策略

消费者的冲动性购买行为是多种因素共同作用的结果。其中，外在刺激起主要影响作用，个人内在因素也有不可忽略的影响。这一研究结果对企业的意义在于：消费者的冲动性购买行为是可诱导、可激发的；企业可以针对冲动性购买行为的影响因素采取相应的营销措施和手段，有效地引导或诱导消费者冲动性购买欲望，从而推动和促进冲动性购买行为的最终实现。     

Managerial judgment and forecast combination: An experimental study

This paper examines the role of managerial judgment in forming a final forecast, or judging the achievability of a critical level of sales, when multiple forecasts or opinions are available to the decision maker. Several factors that can help improve the quality of human intervention are identified and incorporated in a decision aid. Experimental results show that aided combination can help the decision maker exploit her relevant private information and mitigate the generally observed negative effects of human intervention. Further, the results suggest that emphasizing expected sales, even when the organization is primarily interested in go/no-go decisions, helps improve performance. Several suggestions for future research are presented.

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Exploring the boundaries of the framing effect: The moderating roles of disparate expected values and perceived costs of judgmental errors

Framing effects on retail store choice decisions were investigated in four experiments. Subjects preferred the store that guaranteed (a sure option) good prices (experiment 1), product availability (experiment 2), or a rebate (experiment 3) when consequences were framed in terms of gains; subjects preferred the risky option when consequences were framed in terms of losses. Consistent with fuzzy-trace theory, framing effects were reduced when the expected values of options were disparate in a direction that disfavored sure gain or probabilistic loss options (experiment 2) and when the perceived costs of committing a judgmental error were high (experiment 3). Experiment 4 shows that the moderating effects of disparate expected values and costs of judgment errors generalize to within-subject designs.     

Experimental Economics and the Theory of Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Following a brief review of the main experimental work into the economics of risk and uncertainty, both static and dynamic, this paper reports the results of an experiment testing one of the key assumptions of the theory of dynamic economic behaviour—that people have a plan and implement it. Using a unique design which enables the plan (if one exists) to be revealed by the first move, the experiment was implemented via the Internet on a subset of the University of Tilburg's ongoing family expenditure survey panel. The advantages of using such a set of subjects for the experiment are twofold: the demographic characteristics of the set are known and therefore demographic inferences can be made; the representativeness of the set is known and therefore inferences about populations can be made. The results suggest that at least 36% of the subjects had behaviour inconsistent with the hypothesis under test: that people formulate plans and then implement them. Interestingly demographic variables are unable to explain the consistency or inconsistency of individuals. One conclusion is that subjects simply make errors. An alternative conclusion, consistent with previous experimental research, is that people are unable to predict their own future decisions. The implications for dynamic theory (particularly relating to savings and pensions decisions) are important.     

盈利要求与投资决策

本讨论了公司盈利要求对经理投资决策行为的影响，并进一步将该结果与社会最优结果进行了比较分析。本研究结果表明，较高的盈利要求将导致经理选择高风险的投资项目，即使该投资项目的预期收益未必高于低风险投资项目。从社会福利最优角度来看，盈利要求对社会福利的影响取决于公司所面临的投资环境和投资项目性质。     

关于不确定情况下净现值投资评价指标的探讨

文章对在不确定性情况下净现值（NPV）投资评价指标的有效性进行了探讨，提出在运用该指标评价项目时必须要考虑到风险的大小对项目决策的影响，并根据投资项目的统计特征。阐述了在此情况下该指标的计算。最后以实例进一步说明该计算方法的有效性。从而使项目的投资决策更为科学合理。     

影响投标决策的典型因素

基于美国斯坦福大学Boyd C．Paulson．Jr．教授所准备的材料，本介绍了影响招标决策的典型因素，包括：企业的目标和现有能力，工程项目位置，投标时间和地点，如何获得设计图和规范，法定的和其他官方要求，工程特定范围，资源比较的决策。     

Trade-off Model of Debt Maturity Structure

In this paper, we suggest the trade-off model to explain the choice of debt maturity. This model is based on balancing between risk and reward of using shorter-term loans. Shorter-term loans have cost advantage over, but incur higher refinancing and interest rate risk than longer-term loans. Using the Compustat data, we show that the principal components of financial attributes are financial flexibility and financial strength. Therefore, only firms with greater financial flexibility and financial strength can use proportionately more short-term loans. We also document that financially strong firms take advantage of lower interest rates of short-term debt. They use proportionately more short-term loans when the term premium is high. The results of our study also provide evidence supporting the agency cost hypothesis, which is strongly supported by current literature.