Experimental Economics and the Theory of Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Following a brief review of the main experimental work into the economics of risk and uncertainty, both static and dynamic, this paper reports the results of an experiment testing one of the key assumptions of the theory of dynamic economic behaviour—that people have a plan and implement it. Using a unique design which enables the plan (if one exists) to be revealed by the first move, the experiment was implemented via the Internet on a subset of the University of Tilburg's ongoing family expenditure survey panel. The advantages of using such a set of subjects for the experiment are twofold: the demographic characteristics of the set are known and therefore demographic inferences can be made; the representativeness of the set is known and therefore inferences about populations can be made. The results suggest that at least 36% of the subjects had behaviour inconsistent with the hypothesis under test: that people formulate plans and then implement them. Interestingly demographic variables are unable to explain the consistency or inconsistency of individuals. One conclusion is that subjects simply make errors. An alternative conclusion, consistent with previous experimental research, is that people are unable to predict their own future decisions. The implications for dynamic theory (particularly relating to savings and pensions decisions) are important.     

盈利要求与投资决策

本讨论了公司盈利要求对经理投资决策行为的影响，并进一步将该结果与社会最优结果进行了比较分析。本研究结果表明，较高的盈利要求将导致经理选择高风险的投资项目，即使该投资项目的预期收益未必高于低风险投资项目。从社会福利最优角度来看，盈利要求对社会福利的影响取决于公司所面临的投资环境和投资项目性质。     

关于不确定情况下净现值投资评价指标的探讨

文章对在不确定性情况下净现值（NPV）投资评价指标的有效性进行了探讨，提出在运用该指标评价项目时必须要考虑到风险的大小对项目决策的影响，并根据投资项目的统计特征。阐述了在此情况下该指标的计算。最后以实例进一步说明该计算方法的有效性。从而使项目的投资决策更为科学合理。     

影响投标决策的典型因素

基于美国斯坦福大学Boyd C．Paulson．Jr．教授所准备的材料，本介绍了影响招标决策的典型因素，包括：企业的目标和现有能力，工程项目位置，投标时间和地点，如何获得设计图和规范，法定的和其他官方要求，工程特定范围，资源比较的决策。     

Trade-off Model of Debt Maturity Structure

In this paper, we suggest the trade-off model to explain the choice of debt maturity. This model is based on balancing between risk and reward of using shorter-term loans. Shorter-term loans have cost advantage over, but incur higher refinancing and interest rate risk than longer-term loans. Using the Compustat data, we show that the principal components of financial attributes are financial flexibility and financial strength. Therefore, only firms with greater financial flexibility and financial strength can use proportionately more short-term loans. We also document that financially strong firms take advantage of lower interest rates of short-term debt. They use proportionately more short-term loans when the term premium is high. The results of our study also provide evidence supporting the agency cost hypothesis, which is strongly supported by current literature.     

我国基金选股选时能力实证分析

本文运用西方基金绩效评价中较为常见的选股选时能力模型及其FF3改进模型对我国证券投资基金进行实证研究,在处理过程中考虑了不同取样频率和不同样本区间的影响.研究结果表明:(1)我国基金只存在很小程度的选股能力,而基本不存在选时能力,更没有基金同时具有选时能力和选股能力;(2)多因素改进模型与原模型相比显著提高了解释能力,说明在可能的情况下应尽可能使用多因素模型;(3)加快取样频率后基金表现出更强一些的选股能力,但在各年度内基金的选股能力有所差异.     

浅谈工程项目投资的全过程控制

章简述了工程项目投资全过程控制的原理，以及各阶段对工程项目投资控制所起的作用和控制的方法。在工程建设中投资控制应注意抓住投资决策控制和设计控制，它们是工程项目投资的全过程控制的关键性环节。     

浅析房地产开发企业融资方式之变革

中央人民银行出台《关于进一步加强房地产信贷业务管理的通知》，引发了房地产开发企业融资方式的变化，房地产开发企业应对当前融资环境变化，采取切实可行的融资渠道和资金运营方法，今后将成为主流房地产项目融资方式有：房地产信托投资、房地产企业上市、房地产基金、债券融资和住宅抵押贷款证券化等。     

房地产投资分析浅析

房地产投资分析是房地产投资决策的基础，所涉及的内容较多。章通过对消费、投资地域、资金筹集和投资项目4个方面分析，详细地阐述了影响房地产投资决策的各种主要因素，提出将房地产投资风险降至最低的建议。     

小区建设项目管理规划研究

从项目管理工作的实际出发，借鉴房地产行业的项目管理成功经验，运用管理学的理论和方法。总结了某小区的项目管理及其开发工作整体运作过程。从前期选址、可行性研究到决策，以及从设计到施．工和竣工验收各个环节，全面分析小区建设项目的管理规划及控制要点。