国防支出与经济增长均衡关系的理论和实证研究——基于门槛回归模型的检验分析

文章首先将国防支出纳入Solow增长模型进行理论分析,假定国防支出通过影响技术进步对经济增长产生影响。与现有实证分析不同,文章基于1952-2008年中国的有关时间序列数据,尝试运用非线性门槛回归模型来分析国防支出与经济增长之间的数量关系。研究发现:国防支出与经济增长之间存在门槛效应,国防支出占GDP的比例低于3.434%时,国防支出占GDP的比例的增加不利于经济增长,且这种负面作用较为显著;当该比例高于3.434%时,该比例的增加将显著促进经济增长。当然,该比例并非越低越好,也并非越高越好,其局部最优规模由次级门槛值决定。     

国防科技工业发展战略性新兴产业的路径选择

文章系统分析了国防科技工业在发展战略性新兴产业中的地位作用,明确提出了新一代信息技术、高端装备制造、新能源、新材料、节能环保等国防科技工业发展战略性新兴产业的五大领域与重点任务,并从发挥军民两用高技术优势、创新产业发展模式、加强产学研商全方位结合、创建军民结合产业基地等方面对国防科技工业发展战略性新兴产业的路径进行了探究。     

从使用价值和虚拟价值不对称视角解读美国施压人民币升值问题

从使用价值和虚拟价值不对称视角分析美国施压人民币升值问题,提出基于使用价值的实物流和基于虚拟价值的信息流不对称导致了中美贸易的不平衡,信用体系不对称导致了中美经济结构的差异,以及对广义虚拟经济主导权的争夺是美国施压人民币升值的根本原因.最后给出政策建议:缓解人民币升值压力要大力发展文化产业,根本解决人民币升值压力要掌握...     

Off‐farm work,technical efficiency,and rice production risk in Taiwan

This article investigates the differences in yield production, production efficiency, and yield risk for farmers both with and without off‐farm work. Using a nationwide survey of rice farmers in Taiwan, we estimate two stochastic production frontier models that accommodate technical inefficiency and production risk simultaneously for farmers both with and without off‐farm work. The stochastic dominance criterion is then applied to compare the differences in the distributions of the estimated technical efficiency and yield risk between groups. The empirical results indicate that these two groups of farmers use resources in different ways, and off‐farm work is not necessarily associated with lower technical efficiency. For farmers in the lower percentiles of the efficiency distribution, those with off‐farm work are more efficient than their counterparts without off‐farm work. In addition, farmers with off‐farm work face higher production risk and this result is robust for the entire distribution.     

Stochastic efficiency analysis with risk aversion bounds: a correction

A recent paper by Hardaker et al. (The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 48, 2004a, 253) and book by Hardaker et al. (Coping with Risk in Agriculture, 2004b) describe a procedure for determining an efficient set from among a set of random alternatives. This procedure, called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF), is claimed to make the same assumption concerning the risk aversion measures as does stochastic dominance with respect to a function (SDRF). This is claim is incorrect. SERF imposes an additional requirement on the risk aversion measures of the decision makers. Both procedures assume a lower and an upper bound on risk aversion, but SERF also assumes that all risk aversion measures are of the same functional form as these lower and upper bound functions. This additional strong requirement on risk preferences implies that the efficient set identified under SERF is usually smaller than that identified using SDRF.     

Optimal Insurance Against Climatic Experience

An optimal insurance contract against a climatic risk is derived in the presence of an uninsurable and dependent aggregate production risk. The optimal design depends on the stochastic dependency between both sources of uncertainty and on the producer's attitude towards risk, especially on his prudent behavior. Rational weather insurance purchasing decisions are also derived. The prudent producer responds to actuarially fair weather insurance by increasing his exposure towards risk.     

后冷战时期国防科技工业的发展趋势

国防以经济发展为依托,国防离不开科技,并与国际政治密不可分。冷战后,世界主要国家调整了国防科技工业的发展战略,出现了国防科技工业发展的信息化、全球化、市场化和军民一体化趋势。同时,国防科技工业关系着一个国家科技发展水平,甚至关系着国家安全。世界大国国防科技工业的发展趋势对中国有重要的启示作用。     

国防工业高校科研能力趋势评价研究

通过对国防工业高校科研特点的分析,基于生态位理论的基本思想,运用数学建模的方法,构建具有速度特征的国防工业高校科研能力趋势评价模型,并通过算例证明该方法的可行性与有效性。     

Estimating Technical Efficiency and Production Risk under Contract Farming: A Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Dominance Methodology

We investigate production risk, technical efficiency and risk attitudes amongst contract and independent farmers. We use a Bayesian parametric approach and stochastic dominance quantile regression methods to compare technical efficiency and risk attitude of smallholders in Nepal. Using farm‐level data, we find that contract farmers appear to show lower inefficiency and lower production risk. Additionally, contract and independent farmers can increase output by reducing the scale of operation. Regardless of the commodity produced and farming arrangement (contract or independent production), we find that labour, land and other inputs are risk‐augmenting, while the role of capital is mixed. We find a second order stochastic dominance (SSD) for lentils, and first order stochastic dominance (FSD) for tomatoes, ginger and HYV paddy seed commodities. Finally, contract farmers are more risk averse than independent farmers, regardless of the commodity produced.     

国防科技重大工程技术总成的组织协同网络模型研究

面对着经济、科技全球一体化和军民融合式发展趋势,国防科技重大工程迫切需要进行有效的技术总成。本文首先结合国防科技重大工程的特点,在技术整合概念的基础上进一步深化提炼出了技术总成的概念,然后基于协同理论和网络组织理论,介绍了基于任务分解的国防重大科技工程组织协同网络模型的类型,最后根据不同类型模型的特征,构建了面向技术总成的两种国防科技重大工程组织协同网络模型。