ESG,risk, and (tail) dependence

While environmental, social, and governance (ESG) trading activity has been a distinctive feature of financial markets, the debate if ESG scores can also convey information regarding a company’s riskiness remains open. Regulatory authorities, such as the European Banking Authority (EBA), have acknowledged that ESG factors can contribute to risk. Therefore, it is important to model such risk dependencies and quantify what part of a company’s riskiness can be attributed to the ESG scores. This paper aims to question whether ESG scores can be used to provide information on (tail) riskiness. By analyzing the (tail) dependence structure of companies with a range of ESG scores, that is within an ESG rating class, using high-dimensional vine copula modeling, we are able to show that risk can also depend on and be directly associated with a specific ESG rating class. Empirical findings on real-world data show positive not negligible ESG risks determined by ESG scores, especially during the 2008 crisis.     

Manufacturer–reseller e-business arrangements: The impact of inequity on relationship performance and the moderating role of dependence

Manufacturer–reseller e-business arrangements are changing the nature of channel relationships. When manufacturers supply e-business tools to their resellers, resellers may perceive that the benefits of technology are not shared equitably. This research explores this issue by examining two technology based antecedents of perceived inequity from the reseller perspective. We also examine the impact of perceived inequity on relationship performance, and the moderating role of reseller dependence on the proposed inequity–performance link. The results of the empirical test involving a sample of 224 resellers suggest that perceived inequity negatively impacts relationship performance, while reseller dependence plays a moderating role. Implications of these findings for researchers and managers are discussed.     

The t copula with multiple parameters of degrees of freedom: bivariate characteristics and application to risk management

The t copula is often used in risk management as it allows for modeling the tail dependence between risks and it is simple to simulate and calibrate. However, the use of a standard t copula is often criticized due to its restriction of having a single parameter for the degrees of freedom (dof) that may limit its capability to model the tail dependence structure in a multivariate case. To overcome this problem, the grouped t copula was proposed recently, where risks are grouped a priori in such a way that each group has a standard t copula with its specific dof parameter. In this paper we propose the use of a generalized grouped t copula, where each group consists of one risk factor only, so that a priori grouping is not required. The copula characteristics in the bivariate case are studied. We explain simulation and calibration procedures, including a simulation study on the finite sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimators and Kendall's tau approximation. This new copula is significantly different from the standard t copula in terms of risk measures such as tail dependence, value at risk and expected shortfall.     

Investigating the stationarity of insurance premiums: international evidence

This article explores whether there is support for the stationarity hypotheses of life and non-life insurance premiums during the period 1979–2007 for 40 heterogeneous countries. The stationarity of insurance premiums affects insurance companies’ prediction on their future inflow of premium income, which affects the liquidity of insurance companies and their investment plans and thus is relevant to the insurers’ operation. This article employs the advanced nonlinear panel unit-root test with a sequential panel selection method to classify the entire panel into two groups: stationary countries and non-stationary countries. We apply Monte Carlo simulations to derive empirical distributions of the test, which allows us to correct for the finite-sample bias and to consider the cross-country effects. We find relatively stationary life insurance premiums in countries from the following groups: high-income, Europe, and common law origin; relatively stationary non-life insurance premiums exist in the following groups: low-income, Middle East and Africa, and common law origin. Evidence herein shows that different classifications, including income levels, geographic regions, regionally or economically integrated blocs, and legal system, affect the stationarity of life and non-life insurance premiums.     

Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions II

Market cycles play a great role in reinsurance. Cycle transitions are not independent from the claim arrival process: a large claim or a high number of claims may accelerate cycle transitions. To take this into account, a semi-Markovian risk model is proposed and analyzed. A refined Erlangization method is developed to compute the finite-time ruin probability of a reinsurance company. Numerical applications and comparisons to results obtained from simulation methods are given. The impact of dependency between claim amounts and phase changes is studied.     

Untersuchung über die Kränklichkeit in den staatlich unterstützten Krankenkassen Schwedens

Abstract

Von den Vorschriften, die für die staatlich unterstützten Krankenkassen gelten, werde ich hier nur so viel mitteilen, was für den Aufbau der mathematiscben Formeln notwendig ist, sowie einige Tatsachen, die bei Vergleichen mit anderen Kränklichkeitsmaterialien von Bedeutung sind. Im übrigen wird auf das Gesetz über Krankenkassen hingewiesen.     

Ruin probabilities in models with a Markov chain dependence structure

In this paper we derive explicit expressions for the probability of ruin in a renewal risk model with dependence among the increments (Z _k ) _k>0. We study the case where the dependence structure among (Z _k ) _k>0 is driven by a Markov chain with a transition kernel that can be described via ordinary differential equations with constant coefficients.     

Classical meets modern in the IDEA protocol for structured expert judgement

Expert judgement is pervasive in all forms of risk analysis, yet the development of tools to deal with such judgements in a repeatable and transparent fashion is relatively recent. This work outlines new findings related to an approach to expert elicitation termed the IDEA protocol. IDEA combines psychologically robust interactions among experts with mathematical aggregation of individual estimates. In particular, this research explores whether communication among experts adversely effects the reliability of group estimates. Using data from estimates of the outcomes of geopolitical events, we find that loss of independence is relatively modest and it is compensated by improvements in group accuracy.     

Daily income target effects: Evidence from a large sample of professional commodities traders

We provide evidence of rational reference-dependent preferences in the proprietary trading of professional traders. We find increased trading effort and risk taking by traders following morning losses. Further analysis provides no evidence of a deterioration in trading performance subsequent to losses, as neither risk-adjusted performance nor trade execution appear to be negatively affected by prior losses. The evidence supports the existence of rational reference-dependent preferences in the form of trader daily income targets: these professional traders exhibit increased work effort subsequent to abnormal morning losses. The evidence is inconsistent with the alternative explanation of costly loss aversion.     

开放经济下的产业安全问题探析

本文认为,随着经济全球化进程的不断深化,开放经济、引进外资已经成为发展中国家促进本国经济发展的基本国策。但是如果不加限制地扩大外资的规模也会产生负面影响,即出现产业控制倾向,进而引发产业安全问题,这是事关国家经济安全的重大问题。对产业安全问题的研究,无论在现实经济运行还是在理论研究中,都具有非常重要的意义。随着国家经济结构的调整和产业升级的进程,产业安全的内涵和外延也将会有所拓展,金融安全、能源安全、网络安全、幼稚产业保护、经济结构、产业结构调整等都将成为产业安全研究所应关注的问题。