利率全面开放时期的风险识别与防范

综观国际上实施利率市场化改革的经验和教训,不难看到虽然利率市场化是提高金融系统效率和效益的必要途径,然而它也将给该国的经济,金融系统带来许多严重的风险。我国目前正加紧利率市场化改革步伐,为使改革顺利进行,减轻负面影响,研究和探讨防范和管理利率市场时期的风险的方法和途径应是我们面临的迫切任务。本将利用保险理论中风险管理的思想,来分析,研究这类风险的管理与防范,希望能起到抛砖引玉的作用。     

Deregulation,Pricing Strategies,and Claim Behavior in the Taiwan Automobile Insurance Market

Stringent pricing regulations have long been in effect in the Taiwan automobile insurance market. In April 2009, a pricing deregulation was adopted, enabling insurers to establish their own auto insurance premium rates. This study examines the effects of deregulation in terms of three hypotheses that we propose pertaining to market shares, loading factors, and last policy month claims. The quantitative analysis results show that pricing deregulation prompts insurers to lower their rates. The effects of deregulation for insurers are determined by not only the decision to deduct premiums and the deduction percentages, but also by policy type.     

放松规制背景下的政府规制重构

传统的自然垄断理论主张政府应对自然垄断行业实施规制。但20世纪70年代以来,由于政府规制的失灵、技术和市场条件的变化以及规制理论的发展,自然垄断行业放松规制的改革之风盛行。在这一背景下,转变规制重点、强化对规制者的规制和改变规制方式的“三位一体”的政府规制重构是必然的选择。     

Modeling the growth and policy implications of Global System for Mobile Telecommunication （GSM） in Nigeria

This paper investigated the growth and policy implications of Global System for Mobile Communication in Nigeria. Stochastic economic modeling was used to analyze Nigeria＇s time series data. The models were adjudged reliable before they were used. The components of the model were defined and a prior expectation of the relationship among the variables explained for the purpose of giving the reviewers and users a deep insight into the phenomenon under study. The secondary data used for the study were processed using the E-View for windows electronic packages. The outcome of the empirical and stochastic investigations shows that Global System for Mobile Communication has a positive relationship with output growth in Nigeria. The impact is of a higher magnitude. The usage of Global System for Mobile Telecommunication led to 17 percent rise in the output growth. The findings suggest the need for the Nigerian Communication Commission （NCC） and the federal government of Nigeria to expand tele-density and directly make telephone communications cheap and accessible. To achieve this goal, more licenses should be given to GSM operators in order to allow for healthy competition among them. This will lead to improved quality of services, quality of product and consequently sustain the growth and development of the country.     

从金融体制视角分析粗放型增长模式产生的原因

管制金融体制在支撑早期经济增长的同时，也造成了进一步的资本集中，低利率和企业低效会造成社会总体的过度投资，使整个社会陷入粗放式、低效率的增长“陷阱”。而转变增长方式的根本途径是进行以市场化为导向的金融改革。     

Does Competition Affect Bank Risk?

Although policymakers often discuss trade-offs between bank competition and stability, past research provides differing theoretical perspectives and empirical results on the impact of competition on risk. We employ a new approach for identifying exogenous changes in the competitive pressures facing individual banks and discover that an intensification of competition materially boosts bank risk. With respect to the mechanisms, we find that competition reduces banks’ profits, pricing power, and charter values and increases banks’ provision of nontraditional, riskier banking services and lending to riskier firms.     

Labor Responses,Regulation, and Business Churn

We develop a model of sluggish firm entry to explain short‐run labor responses to technology shocks. We show that the labor response to technology and its persistence depend on the degree of returns to labor and the rate of firm entry. Existing empirical results support our theory based on short‐run labor responses across U.S. industries. We derive closed‐form transition paths that show the result occurs because labor adjusts instantaneously while firms are sluggish, and closed‐form eigenvalues show that stricter entry regulation results in slower convergence to steady state. Finally, we show that our theoretical results hold in a quantitative model with capital accumulation and interest rate dynamics.     

Financial risks,monetary policy in the QE era,and regulation

At the beginning of the present century, the literature on financial integration focused on the benefits of increased integration. In particular, the literature emphasized that a well-integrated financial system allows economic agents to engage in risk sharing while enhancing the smooth transmission of monetary policy. However, the international financial crisis of 2007-08 and the euro area sovereign debt crisis of 2009-15, brought to the fore the flip side of increased financial integration – namely, that higher financial integration among national jurisdictions creates the potential for destabilizing cross-country spillovers of capital flows. The papers in this Special Issue address financial system vulnerabilities in the aftermath of the 2007-08 financial crisis and the 2009-15 euro area crisis. In particular, the papers assess (1) vulnerabilities arising from such factors as the liberalization of financial systems, cross-country contagion, and climate change, and (2) policy responses, including macroprudential supervision and quantitative easing, to financial instabilities.     

Valuation Relevance of Allowance for Funds Used During Construction and Operating Income: The Effects of Regulatory Climates and Deregulation

This study considers the valuation relevance allowance for funds used during construction (AFUDC), operating income (OI), and their innovations across regulatory climates and regulatory reforms. Valuation relevance is assessed by examining the coefficients and R ²s from the regressions of returns on AFUDC, OI, and their innovations. Regulatory climate is predicted to affect valuation relevance of earnings components on the premise that different regulatory regimes enact and enforce policies that differently affect (1) the uncertainty of future earnings, (2) the recovery of deferred assets, and (3) the sustainability of earnings innovations. In an extended analysis, indicators of rate-base valuation method and leverage are added as control variables to isolate their mediating effects on returns for electric utilities. Additional analysis considers the effects of the Energy Policy Act (EPAct) of 1992 on the valuation of earnings components. The results reveal that AFUDC and OI are valued differently relative to each other and across regulatory climates. The results also show a significant decline in the explanatory power of earnings components after the passage of the EPAct in 1992. Rate-base valuation method has no discernible effects on returns for the utilities. On the other hand, the effect of leverage on returns for the utilities is reliably negative.     

British Bus Deregulation: Competition and Demand Coordination

Our framework formally explains some of the recent curious events surrounding deregulation of the British local bus industry. The winner-takes-all nature of this market induces competitive providers to engage in predatory or preemptive behavior in scheduling and pricing. Unlike previous works, we explicitly model consumers' responses to firms' schedule announcements. We show that the market is unstable if demand is uncoordinated, but stable otherwise. Our results highlight the important role played by demand-coordinating mechanisms in local bus markets and our results suggest that pure-strategy Nash equilibria exist in models à-la-Hotelling (1929) whenever demand is effectively coordinated.