48 基于分类矩阵的街道定位及设计框架 研究——伦敦《街道景观指南(2019)》及 相关实践解读

新版伦敦《街道景观指南(2019)》(以下简称《指 南》)通过构建基于移动性与场所性的街道分类矩阵框架, 精准定位街道功能与服务优先性,使得街道设计从单纯追求 交通网络效率转变为复合社会公共空间景观营造。根据新版 《指南》,深入解析主要内容与编制更新机制,剖析分类矩 阵认知框架构成及其在街道规划设计中的作用。结合实际应 用案例,反映《指南》及相关引导的实施情况。针对国内街 道景观设计引导提出应当构建顶层框架,明确街道分类,优 化街道指南编制完善引导体系,并提出案例机制提升指南可 操作性的建议。     

Viewing Tax Policy Through Party‐Colored Glasses: What German Politicians Believe

Abstract. The process of globalization has an important impact on national tax policies. Most of the literature does not focus directly on the political decision‐making process and assumes that the desired tax policy is responding to objective underlying tradeoffs. Based on an original survey of members of the German national parliament (Bundestag) in 2006/07, we document a strong ideological bias among policy‐makers with respect to the perceived mobility of international tax bases (real capital and paper profits). Ideology also influences, directly and indirectly, the perceived national autonomy in tax setting and preferences for a European Union minimum tax for companies. There seems little consensus as to what the efficiency costs of capital taxation in open economies are, even though our survey falls in a period of extensive debate about, and actual adoption of, a company tax reform bill in Germany.     

Cyclical wage movements in emerging markets compared to developed economies: The role of interest rates

This paper documents that, at the aggregate level, (i) real wages are positively correlated with output and, on average, lag output by about one quarter in emerging markets, while there are no systematic patterns in developed economies, and (ii) real wage volatility (relative to output volatility) is about twice as high in emerging markets compared with developed economies. We then present a small open economy model with productivity shocks and countercyclical interest rates. The model incorporates a working capital requirement and the Jaimovich and Rebelo (2009) preference that allows for flexible parameterization of the strength of income effects on labor supply. The model can account for the high volatility of wage and consumption relative to output and countercyclical trade balances that characterize emerging-market economies. During economic downturns, rising interest rates in emerging markets induce relatively large income effects on labor supply, so households would not reduce their labor input as much even though wages drop significantly.     

R&D, risks and overreaction in a market with the absence of the book-to-market effect

Prior studies document that the book-to-market (BM) effect is absent in the Taiwan stock market. Using Taiwanese data covering from 1991 to 2006, we show that, after controlling for the size effect and the Fama and French's (1993) risk factors, the BM effect only exists for those firms with low R&D intensity essentially because these stocks suffer less from investors’ underreaction to R&D investment. The BM effect arises primarily from fundamental reversals acting as a proxy for investors’ overreaction.     

Forecasting the volatility of S&P depositary receipts using GARCH-type models under intraday range-based and return-based proxy measures

We employ four various GARCH-type models, incorporating the skewed generalized t (SGT) errors into those returns innovations exhibiting fat-tails, leptokurtosis and skewness to forecast both volatility and value-at-risk (VaR) for Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts (SPDRs) from 2002 to 2008. Empirical results indicate that the asymmetric EGARCH model is the most preferable according to purely statistical loss functions. However, the mean mixed error criterion suggests that the EGARCH model facilitates option buyers for improving their trading position performance, while option sellers tend to favor the IGARCH/EGARCH model at shorter/longer trading horizon. For VaR calculations, although these GARCH-type models are likely to over-predict SPDRs' volatility, they are, nevertheless, capable of providing adequate VaR forecasts. Thus, a GARCH genre of model with SGT errors remains a useful technique for measuring and managing potential losses on SPDRs under a turbulent market scenario.     

本科生的科研实践能力培养的一些尝试

社会发展对本科毕业生提出了比以往更高的要求,毕业生不仅仅是从课堂获得一些专业知识,社会对学生提出的“零适应期”,要求学生在离开学校前,应该具备一定的科研工作能力。从加强专业课程的实践环节、开放实验室平台的建设、导师制、学生参与教师的科研教学团队活动以及开展科技论文竞赛活动等多方位教学环节出发,对提高学生的科研能力培养进行了一些探索与思考。     

Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications

This study looks at the characteristics and determinants of booms and busts in housing prices for a sample of eighteen industrialised countries over the period 1980–2007. From an historical perspective, we find that recent housing booms have been amongst the longest in the past four decades. Estimates of a Multinomial Probit model suggest that domestic credit and interest rates have a significant influence on the probability of booms and busts occurring. Moreover, international liquidity plays a significant role for the occurrence of housing booms and—in conjunction with banking crises—for busts. We also find that the deregulation of financial markets has strongly magnified the impact of the domestic financial sector on the occurrence of booms.     

谬误分类新探

谬误是与论证相关的概念,是错误的推理形式。文章考察了谬误的定义概况,区别于以往谬误的分类方法,根据谬误产生的过程,即一个错误的由前提,经过推理,到达结论的论证过程,将谬误区分为前提错误的谬误、推理错误的谬误和结论错误的谬误三类,以期为谬误的研究工作提供新的思路。