广东省终端能源消费碳排放增长的驱动因素

将居民能源消费的二氧化碳排放纳入研究范围,采用LMDI分解法对2000—2011年广东省终端能源消费碳排放增长的驱动因素进行分析。结果显示:在影响碳排放增长的各种因素中,经济规模、人口规模和收入对碳排放增加整体上表现为正效应;产业结构、生产部门能源强度、生产部门能源结构和能源碳排放因子整体表现为负效应;生活部门的能源强度和能源结构的效应不确定;总体上正向驱动效应超过负向驱动效应,致使广东省的碳排放量呈不断上升态势。     

中国钢铁产业国际市场势力实证研究

本文首先运用边际成本模型估算了中国钢铁产业的国际市场势力,发现中国加入世贸组织后钢铁产业的国际市场势力下降,且加入世贸组织前后钢铁产业国际市场势力均较小;然后选取SITC(Rev.2)中两位码为67的钢铁产品,运用剩余需求弹性模型实证研究了其在韩国、印度、日本和美国这些主要出口国市场上的国际市场势力,发现在韩国、日本和印度市场的国际市场势力依次降低,在美国市场的国际市场势力尚未形成,说明中国钢铁产业出口具有一定的国际市场势力,但与此同时,总体上出口单价和进口单价之比有下降趋势,其低成本优势也趋于减弱,中国从钢铁产业贸易中获得的比较利益正不断减少,钢铁产业没有明显的现实国际市场势力。     

厚煤层大倾角煤顶下掘进围岩控制数值模拟研究

为研究大倾角煤层开采过程中巷道围岩的稳定状况,以青东矿837机、风巷为工程背景,进行煤层顶底板岩石力学参数实验室测试,利用FLAC3D软件建立不同掘进工艺条件下的数值计算模型,分析软弱特厚煤层巷道分别在跟顶板掘进、全煤层掘进、破底掘进(不同破底深度)条件下巷道围岩破坏范围和变形特征。结果表明：跟顶板掘进方式下,围岩的塑性破坏主要发生在巷道底板下方,需要特别注意加强对底板的支护;跟底板掘进时,底板中部靠近帮脚处产生严重底鼓,应当加强对帮脚和巷帮的支护;在全煤层掘进时,巷道主要变形为底鼓与顶板下沉,顶底板破坏严重。研究成果对于指导大倾角厚煤层开采围岩控制具有一定的理论与工程意义。     

主产区粮食生产时空格局及驱动因素

在国内国际双循环背景下厘清现阶段粮食生产的时空格局及驱动因素的空间分异规律,以更好地发挥粮食主产区对保障中国粮食安全的战略作用.基于粮食主产区2001—2017年粮食生产面板数据,利用探索性空间数据分析检验粮食主产区粮食生产格局的空间模式,采用地理加权回归模型分析粮食主产区粮食产量驱动因素的空间异质性.结果显示:主产区粮食产量处于高-高和低-低集聚的省份较多,处于高-低和低-高集聚的省份较少,且空间相关性随着时间波动下降;2001年及2017年种粮人数对粮食产量的驱动作用呈现出明显的空间异质性,其他因素对各地区粮食产量的驱动作用基本一致.基于上述研究结论,必须在充分考虑粮食主产区地域发展差异的基础上,从提升粮食单产、坚守耕地红线、规范化肥使用、推进农业科技化、防范农业灾害等方面着力改善,以期为中国粮食安全提供科学保障.     

Socially optimal replacement of conventional with electric vehicles for the US household fleet

In this study, a framework is proposed for minimizing the societal cost of replacing gas-powered household passenger cars with battery electric ones (BEVs). The societal cost consists of operational costs of heterogeneous driving patterns' cars, government investments for charging deployment, and monetized environmental externalities. The optimization framework determines the timeframe needed for conventional vehicles to be replaced with BEVs. It also determines the BEVs driving range during the planning timeframe, as well as the density of public chargers deployed on a linear transportation network over time. We leverage data sets that represent US household driving patterns, as well as the automobile and the energy markets, to apply the model. Results indicate that it takes 8 years for 80% of our conventional vehicle sample to be replaced with electric vehicles, under the base case scenario. The socially optimal all-electric driving range is 204 miles, with chargers placed every 172 miles on a linear corridor. All public chargers should be deployed at the beginning of the planning horizon to achieve greater savings over the years. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the timeframe for the socially optimal conversion of 80% of the sample varies from 6 to 12 years. The optimal decision variables are sensitive to battery pack and vehicle body cost, gasoline cost, the discount rate, and conventional vehicles' fuel economy. Faster conventional vehicle replacement is achieved when the gasoline cost increases, electricity cost decreases, and battery packs become cheaper over the years.     

顾客虚假忠诚前置因素研究

本文依据行为和态度两个维度对顾客虚假忠诚的内涵进行了界定，并指出其与顾客真正忠诚的区别。通过对现有文献的梳理。将顾客虚假忠诚的前置因素划分为态度、行为驱动因素和外部、内部情景调节因素，通过深入分析，提出了顾客虚假忠诚的形成机理模型，并提出了维系现有顾客的策略建议。     

城市边缘区空间重构的驱动机理研究述评

20世纪70年代以来,全球生产方式变革和资本积累体制变迁推动着我国快速城市化进程中社会经济体制转型和城市空间重构,城市边缘区作为城市空间增长的前沿阵地和社会异质性最强的地域类型,其驱动机理研究成为当前世界城市研究的热点。西方相关研究在结构-行为-社会行动者三个维度上不断实现理论整合,但考虑到我国独特的制度演化路径和社会经济结构,城市边缘区空间重构机理的构成和运作方式迥异于国外。国内当前研究成果偏重于宏观结构性驱动因素分析,而在相对微观的行为因素和关系因素研究方面还有待深入。因此,强化空间重构的行为过程和社会行动者关系研究,对于推动城市边缘区空间整合与社会融合,研拟空间重构调控策略具有非常重要的理论价值和现实意义。     

Macroforces driving change into the new millennium — major challenges for the hospitality professional

The fast pace of change will present many challenges in the new millennium. The success of the leader of tomorrow will depend on how well he or she is able to identify the forces that will drive change, invest in industry leading competitive methods that will take advantage of the opportunities presented by these forces and consistently allocate resources to these methods. Identifying the forces driving change is the most challenging aspect of this co-alignment concept. This paper explores the macroforces, which can be expected to drive change, and possible impact they will have on the hospitality organization. These forces include: globalization and economic change, a knowledge-based environment, the future of labor and quality in service delivery systems, and the growing consumer desire for improved well-being. These forces are presented along with the key variables making them up with the goal of understanding their complexities and interdependencies.     

喀什地区城市(镇)经济区空间组织研究

本研究基于喀什实例,结合喀什地区的社会经济基础及发展潜力,运用SPSS软件分析并在城市中心性和场强模型基础上,指出在现有人口-产业集聚区基础上构建多层次、高效运转的城镇经济区空间组织体系是增强喀什地区竞争能力的关键.     

Seat-belt use still low in Kuwait: self-reported driving behaviours among adult drivers

Kuwait mandated seat-belt use by drivers in 1976 and by front seat passengers in 1994. The study objectives were to identify and estimate current factors associated with seat-belt use and levels of potentially unsafe driving behaviours in Kuwait. In 2010, 741 adults were surveyed regarding driving habits and history. Only 41.6% of drivers reported always using a seat belt. Front seat passenger belt use was more common (30.5%) than rear seat belt use (6.5%). Distracted driving behaviours were common, including mobile phone use (‘always’ or ‘almost always’: 51.1%) and texting/SMS (32.4%). Logistic regression indicated that drivers who were young (18–19 years), male, Kuwaiti nationals or non-Kuwaiti Arabs, drove over the speed limit, had traffic violation tickets or >1 car crashes in the last year, were less likely to use seat belts. Targeted initiatives to increase public awareness and to enforce car-safety legislation, including use of seat belts, are necessary to decrease the health burden of car crashes in Kuwait.