Investigating first‐stage exchange rate pass‐through: Sectoral and macro evidence from euro area countries

In this paper, we evaluate the first‐stage pass‐through, namely the responsiveness of import prices to the exchange rate changes, for a sample of euro area (EA) countries. Our study aimed to shed further light on the role of microeconomic factors versus macroeconomic factors in influencing the extent of the exchange rate pass‐through (ERPT). As a first step, we conduct a sectoral analysis using disaggregated import prices data. We find a much higher degree of pass‐through for more homogeneous goods and commodities, such as oil and raw materials, than for highly differentiated manufactured products, such as machinery and transport equipment. Our results confirm that cross‐country differences in pass‐through rates may be due to divergences in the product composition of imports. The higher share of imports from sectors with lower degrees of pass‐through, the lower ERPT for an economy will be. In a next step, we investigate for the impact of some macroeconomics factors or common events experienced by EA members on the extent of pass‐through. Using the system generalised method of moments within a dynamic panel‐data model, our estimates indicate that decline of import‐price sensitivity to the exchange rate is not significant since the introduction of the single currency. Our findings suggest instead that the weakness of the euro during the first 3 years of the monetary union significantly raised the extent of the ERPT. This outcome could explain why the sensitivity of import prices has not fallen since 1999. We also point out a significant role played by the inflation in the Eurozone, as the responsiveness of import prices to exchange rate fluctuations tends to decline in a low and more stable inflation environment. Overall, our findings support the view that the extent of pass‐through is comprised of both macro‐ and microeconomic aspects that policymakers should take into account.     

不确定环境下的财务柔性理论及其本质

不确定环境下,企业需要具备一定的财务柔性。企业财务柔性的本质是以柔性组织理论、资源约束理论、动态能力理论、权变理论及融资理论为基础,与财务保守、财务冗余有着本质区别;不确定性和环境波动是财务柔性的前提条件;为应对不确定性和环境波动,企业需要通过不同的融资渠道和融资方式获取柔性财务资源,储备财务柔性;财务柔性具有缓冲、适应及创新的功能。对财务柔性本质的探讨踏实了财务柔性的理论基础,丰富了财务柔性的理论,对财务柔性实践具有一定的理论指导意义。     

Do sovereign rating announcements affect emerging market exchange rate correlations? A multivariate DCC-GARCH approach

This article investigates the effects of sovereign credit rating announcements on time-varying exchange rate return correlations for a sample of 11 emerging market countries over the period 2002–2015. The data set covers daily exchange rates and long-term foreign currency sovereign ratings, outlooks and watch list. The pairwise time-varying correlations are derived by corrected Dynamic Conditional Correlation (cDCC) modelling which is a member of multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models family. Furthermore, to capture the global factor effect, a dynamic-weighted index is created by using dynamic principal component (DPC) analysis. Findings suggest that some of the emerging market exchange rate co-movements are affected by rating announcements. Upgrades of Moody’s and downgrades of Fitch lead to spillovers. Main source of these spillovers are sovereign credit rating changes of European countries, especially Czech Republic and Turkey. Countries with high amount of external debt, large current account deficit and speculative grade are more prone to be influenced by announcements on a foreign country’s long-term sovereign rating.     

我国未来几年技能型紧缺人才状况与趋势分析

通过我国目前技能型紧缺人才的现状分析,对未来几年技能型紧缺人才的状况与演变趋势加以研究和讨论,进一步提出我国的技能型人才的短缺已成为制约我国经济发展的瓶颈。     

电子审计体系研究

国家十二五规划纲要提出建设和完善电子审计体系。本文通过对电子审计体系的研究,提出了电子审计体系的顶层设计、总体规划和效能目标三个特性,以及电子审计体系在国家电子政务体系中的地位和作用;提出了审计业务信息化、审计管理数字化、电子审计标准化和审计队伍信息化的电子审计体系框架;提出了电子审计体系的功能演进,包括从重点查处违纪违规问题到重点促进公共财政管理规范的转变、从重点关注财政财务收支审计到重点关注国家经济安全审计评价的转变,从传统审计方式到现代审计方式的转变。     

Live and let die: A survival analysis of foreign R&D units in Swedish MNEs

This paper develops and tests a set of hypotheses regarding factors that influenced the longevity of foreign research and development units in Swedish multinational enterprises over the period 1992–2012. The results reveal an underexplored aspect of the R&D internationalization—the volatility of foreign R&D laboratories. During the investigated period, more than 40% of the R&D units in the sample had been terminated. The results substantiate earlier research regarding the negative effects of mergers and acquisitions on R&D in acquired units but show that these effects are not immediate. They appear – if at all – with a time lag of several years. The hazard of closure for an individual unit seems to be more strongly related to its role and position within the MNE than to local country characteristics. It was smaller for strongly locally embedded units and units with global mandates, but – contrary to expectations – the hazard was greater for units highly integrated with the rest of the MNE.     

我国建筑工程造价动态管理刍议

加强工程造价动态管理必须贯穿于工程的全过程,从项目的可研阶段、设计阶段、施工阶段到项目的竣工结算都要对各种信息进行动态分析。本文从以上各阶段出发探讨,提出了加强造价动态管理的措施。     

On the Differential Effects of European Patents

Since the invention of the European Patent System, national patent systems have continued to co-exist, although they did lose appeal. How have the different national systems been affected in view of their characteristics? In order to answer this question a constant-market-share (CMS) analysis is carried out. While on a theoretical level, the different elements adding to the appeal of each patent system are discussed, the CMS-analysis reveals the importance of country size in that the national systems of smaller countries lose.     

Destination development in China: towards an effective model of explanation

This paper addresses the dynamics of the evolution of a nature-based destination in China. Based on longitudinal studies in Zhangjiajie (Hunan Province), it focuses on the roles of institutions in tourism development in China, demonstrating the centrality of institutions and governments in fostering destination development through policy orientations, attracting investments and regulations in their capacity as producers, protectors and promoters of desired processes of change. It describes a five-stage development process from Exploration, through Starting and via Fluctuation and Acceleration to the current stage of Transition leading towards a Destination seeking Better Service Quality. The study, by incorporating institutions as a driving force, develops an RICI model (Resource, Institution, Capital and Innovation) accounting for destination development in China. The key role of policies implemented by local governments and the roles of institutions are critical in the process of its development, especially in the earlier stages, contrasting with many western countries, where the private sector and central government tend to dominate. The paper notes the role of inter-institution rivalries, and the impact of those rivalries on sustainable development. It is suggested that the proposed model could be empirically verified and tested in other cultural or regional destination development contexts.     

The Evolution of R&D Laboratories in the Brazilian Polymer Industry

ABSTRACT

Ronstadt observed that R&D laboratories in foreign subidiaries of American multinationals follow an evolutionary pattern of development. First, these laboratories adapt foreign technology to the local conditions and local raw materials. Later, laboratories focus their activity in obtaining product quality. In the last stage, these R&D units generate new technology of a long-term or exploratory nature for the corporate parent. Based on this theoretical background, this paper studies the evolution of R&D investments in polymer firms in Brazil. The methodology used was a case study conducted in 5 firms from the polymer area, complemented with secondary sources.

RESUMEN. Según Ronstadt, los laboratorios de I&D de las subsidiarias extranjeras de las multinacionales norteamericanas, cumplen un programa de desarrollo evolucionario. En primer lugar, estos laboratorios adaptan las tecnologías extranjeras a las condiciones locales y las materias primas existentes. A continuación, los laboratorios orientan sus actividades en obtener un producto de alta calidad. En la última etapa, estas unidades de I&D generan nueva tecnología de características a largo plazo o naturaleza exploratoria para la corporación matriz. Usando como base estos antecedentes teóricos, este documento estudia la evolución de las inversiones realizadas por las empresas de polímeros en el campo de la I&D en el Brasil. La metodología utilizada fue un estudio de caso realizado en 5 empresas fabricantes de polímeros, complementado con otras fuentes secundarias.

RESUMO. Ronstadt observou que os laboratórios de R&D em subsidiárias estrangeiras de multinacionais americanas seguem um padrão evolutivo de desenvolvimento. Primeiro, estes laboratórios adaptam a tecnologia estrangeira às condiç[otilde]es e às matérias-primas locais. Posteriormente, os laboratórios focalizam a sua atividade na obtenção da qualidade do produto. E, finalmente, estas unidades de R&D geram uma nova tecnologia para a matriz de natureza exploratória ou de longo prazo. Baseado nesta experiência teórica, este trabalho investiga a evolução dos investimentos de R&D em empresas de polímeros no Brasil. A metodologia usada foi um estudo de caso conduzido em cinco empresas da área de polímeros, complementada por fontes secundárias.