我国商业银行风险预警模型的构建与检验——基于企业风险管理（ERM）的视角

从企业风险管理（ERM）角度利用Logit模型构建商业银行风险预警模型，并使用上市银行2000—2010年的面板数据进行检验，发现所构建的预警模型是可信的。     

电话语音自动报警系统

提出利用电话网传递报警信息的方案，并给出了详细的电路设计方法。它可用于家庭、办公室及仓库的安全报警。     

监测预警型建设用地爬坡分级方法及应用

研究目的：提出一种建设用地爬坡程度分级方法，为认识和管控坡地建设活动提供参考。研究方法：结合两个临界坡度与两个关键点坡度，构建建设用地爬坡程度指数（CCDI）并划分绿、黄、橙、红4个等级，以中国南方519个山区县城为例开展实证应用分析。研究结果：（1）基本统计特征表明CCDI等级能够稳健表达和较好区分建设用地爬坡严重程度；（2）2000—2020年CCDI等级数量持续以绿色为主，但黄、橙、红等级的数量不断增多，主要表现为依次逐级上升；（3）CCDI等级上升主要出现于以贵州为中心的西部“9”字形态区和以福建为中心的东部“1”字形态区；（4）预测2020—2025年CCDI等级变动仍将在原有空间格局下延续上升趋势。研究结论：CCDI可满足统一衡量建设用地爬坡程度并划分风险等级的需求，建议对橙色等级重视预警提醒，对红色等级加强压力疏解和风险管控。     

Evaluating early modern lockdowns: Household quarantine in Bristol, 1565–1604

We know the policy of quarantining plague victims and their families together within their households entailed considerable costs and controversy in early modern Europe. Less clear is the extent to which the authorities implemented the policy in the face of this. This paper presents a novel approach to the measurement of enforcement which relies on linking deceased individuals listed in parish registers into household groups and then measuring changes in within-household mortality between parishes and epidemics. This provides a more complete assessment of the scale of implementation than would be possible using documentary sources alone. Measuring within-household mortality allows us to understand patterns of quarantine enforcement in settlements across early modern Europe. Here the focus is restricted to three epidemics that occurred in Bristol – one of England's most populous and prosperous cities. The analysis reveals household quarantine was enforced in 1603–4 with unprecedented vigour. The effects of quarantine are particularly pronounced in the affluent parishes where elite residence was highest. Greater evidence for enforcement is explained by greater elite oversight and control, as well as their desire to protect their own households. The scale of the impact is shocking. Household quarantine could double within household mortality.     

Modeling an early warning system for household debt risk in Korea: A simple deep learning approach

We construct an early warning indicator for household debt risk by analyzing the relationship between household debt and certain important macroeconomic determinants using a simple deep learning approach. A precise and informative indicator can help inform economic policies, especially in light of the recent growth in the ratio of household debt to income. Although several studies have analyzed the determinants of the household debt crisis, very few have examined early warning indicators for household debt risk. Some studies suggest that a situation can be regarded as a crisis if the household debt ratio is greater than 50% or 85%. However, as the household debt ratio in Korea is already over this threshold, this criterion is neither informative nor useful. Accordingly, we propose a transformed index that addresses long-term memory characteristics. Moreover, five categories for the degree of household debt crisis are considered instead of the binary variable that has been frequently used in previous studies. Furthermore, we use a well-known deep learning approach to find a non-linear relationship between crisis indices and many factors. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed early warning indicator explains the household debt crisis quite well.     

反隐身预警雷达的发展动态与新技术

预警雷达一直是战场防空和国土防御的基本装备之一，而隐身飞行器的出现迫使现代预警雷达必须提高其反隐身能力。首先从雷达的工作频率、目标的极化信息和非后向散射特性剖析了现代预警雷达的反隐身关键技术，然后根据不同的雷达体制对典型反隐身预警雷达进行分类综述，最后总结了多输入多输出、低截获概率、太赫兹超宽带、微波光子相控阵、第三代半导体和基于数学模型的网络优化等新技术的特点和难点，并展望了反隐身预警雷达需进一步研究的方向，以期为反隐身预警雷达相关设计人员提供一定的帮助和参考。