西汉前期的农本思想与农税政策分析

在中国古代史上,西汉前期的农本思想与农税政策所表现出的思想深度及其取得的重大成效在中国历史上影响深远,值得重视和深入分析。这一思想与政策,强化了举国上下的重农意识,充分发挥了财税杠杆对农业的激励作用,调动了农民的生产积极性,极大地促进了农业的恢复与发展,从而开创了中国古代史上著名的"文景之治",成为后来治国的范例。     

沪深交易所上市公司退市政策新风向对上市公司的影响分析

本文在深入剖析上海证券交易所《关于完善上海证券交易所上市公司退市制度的方案(征求意见稿)》和深圳证券交易所《关于改进和完善主板、中小企业板上市公司退市制度的方案(征求意见稿)》的基础上,对陕西省上市公司的相关退市风险和存在问题提出了可行对策和政策建议,为促进和引导资本市场健康有序发展提供参考。     

区域可持续发展预警系统研究

从系统观念出发，研究了区域可持续发展预警系统的功能与基本结构问题，并结合洛阳实际，设计了预警系统指标体系、衡量与评价方案，旨在尝试构建可持续发展预警系统的框架，为可持续发展的定量研究提供一个新的思路。     

高校贷款融资风险评估与预警模型研究

创新高校贷款风险评估与预警模型,共筑财务系统防火墙。通过深入剖析高校债务风险凸显成因、影响路径及其特殊性,探索建立一套系统性强、涵盖面广、操作性强的风险评估与预警模型。并实证研究分析福建省A高校实施新校区项目所面临贷款规模、风险评估等问题,切合实际提出对策建议,为政府、高校和银行共同防范债务风险提供理论与实证依据,形成防范债务风险合力,促进高校健康、稳定、可持续发展。     

经济安全审计预警系统架构研究

通过对次贷危机的反思及对未来国际经济形势发展中如何掌获主动权的绸缪,本文站在政府审计角度,以维护国家经济安全为目的,以监控宏观经济事态发展及具体经济事项为审计对象,提出通过政府审计预警国家经济安全的构想,重点对如何构筑经济安全审计预警系统框架进行研究,并提出可操作性方案。     

Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic

Traditionally, financial crisis Early Warning Systems (EWSs) have relied on macroeconomic leading indicators when forecasting the occurrence of such events. This paper extends such discrete-choice EWSs by taking the persistence of the crisis phenomenon into account. The dynamic logit EWS is estimated using an exact maximum likelihood estimation method in both a country-by-country and a panel framework. The forecasting abilities of this model are then scrutinized using an evaluation methodology which was designed recently, specifically for EWSs. When used for predicting currency crises for 16 countries, this new EWS turns out to exhibit significantly better predictive abilities than the existing static one, both in- and out-of-sample, thus supporting the use of dynamic specifications for EWSs for financial crises.     

大型装备制造业企业关键设备备件预警策略

近些年,国内一些大型装备制造企业为提高国际竞争力,从国外引进不少先进设备,但当这些设备发生故障需要更换备件却不能得到满足时,给企业造成了不同程度的损失。文章应用设备失效模式与后果分析(MFMEA)方法制定关键设备备件预警策略,有效降低关键设备停机风险及其所造成的损失。     

浅论准备工程的合同管理

在大型工程项目的建设过程中,加强准备工程的合同管理,对整个工程项目的顺利进行具有不可忽视的作用。章针对准备工程合同的特点,提出了加强准备工程合同管理的对策和建议。     

财政分权如何加剧了养老保险基金失衡?——基于收支二维视角的分析

基金失衡是当前养老保险制度改革面临的困境。本文从财政分权角度构建基金失衡的解释框架,并对其影响效果与作用机制进行实证检验。结果发现,财政分权显著加剧了养老保险基金的失衡风险,在经内生性与稳健性处理后,这一结果依然成立,且财政分权的影响效应主要通过征缴效率和提前退休两个机制实现。具体而言,财政分权诱发地方政府放松缴费监管,导致养老保险缴费收入遭受损失;财政分权引起地方政府降低退休审核,以致职工提前退休现象较为普遍,进而加大了基金支付需求;制度环境对财政分权的两种作用路径具有门槛效应,在基金相对富余、对财政补贴依赖度低以及总体法定费率较高时,财政分权的作用机制更加突显。本文验证了宏观经济体制对养老保险基金运行的影响,深化了对分权体制与养老保险制度关系的理解。     

Do significant risk warnings in annual reports increase corporate bond credit spreads? Evidence from China

Based on listed companies issuing bonds on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2007 to 2017, this study analyzes the relationship between significant risk warnings in Chinese companies’ annual reports and corporate bond credit spreads. The main findings are as follows. First, in the Chinese market, “substantial warnings of significant risks” can significantly improve corporate bond credit spreads, reflecting the risk-warning effect; second, state-owned property rights weaken this effect, which only pertains to listed companies with poor risk management and low information quality; third, significant risk warnings increase investors’ heterogeneous beliefs, also affecting credit spreads; and fourth, through textual analysis, it is found that the corporate bond credit spread is greater when the disclosed risk factors are more pessimistic and less similar to those of the previous year. The findings of this paper help to enrich the literature on credit spreads and risk disclosure.