Last resort gambles, risky debt and liquidation policy

This paper develops a real option model in which the interaction between debt, liquidation policy and risky investments is studied. We consider a manager who owns the firm and faces the opportunity to invest in risky projects which may boost current profits at the cost of bankruptcy if they turn out to be unsuccessful. These investments are “last resort gambles” in the sense that, if successful, they save the company from insolvency, while, if unsuccessful, they make liquidation unavoidable. It is shown that last resort gambles delay liquidation. We study how the liquidation trigger and the last resort investment decisions are affected by the firm's capital structure.     

相互制农业保险在我国的困境及适用性

相互制保险在农业保险领域有着明显的优势。然而,相互制保险管理制度上的缺陷及其与农业保险的矛盾制约着相互制农业保险的发展。目前,在我国合作意识不强、农村合作经济组织发育不健全的情况下,开展相互制农业保险还有一定困难。因此,要开展相互制农业保险,必须选择合适的范围和地区,并对相互制保险进行制度创新,为相互制农业保险提供财政补贴,建立再保险机制,加强引导,减少行政干预。     

中国进口与经济增长关系的区域差异分析

利用面板数据对中国东、中、西部的进口额和GDP增长关系进行的实证研究。在短期内，GDP增长对进口额影响最小是中部地区，在长期，西部GDP增长对进口额影响最大。中国经济增长对拉动世界经济增长起了十分重要的作用，中国经济增长减速也会影响全球经济。     

深圳中心商务区的区位转移及其机制

20世纪80年代形成的罗湖商业区可以看作是深圳目前的中心商务区，正在建设中的深圳中心区（福田中心区）将会是未来深圳的中心商务区。在深圳城市经济重心西移等内外固定的作用下，深圳商务中心区西移趋势已经形成。本文主要就福田中心区的成长和深圳中心商务区由罗湖向福田转移的机制作了探讨。     

China＇s Regional Disparity and Its Policy Responses

The fruits of China＇s rapid economic development over the 3 decades have not been distributed fairly across different regions. Using data from a sample of 815 Chinese listed firrns during 1998-2004, our error-correction investment model showes evidence of different financial constraints on firms＇ investment in different regions. We argue that China＇s regional development policies have contributed greatly to the regional inequalities. To control the rising inequality, China has shifted its focus from the coast to the interior regions. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the government to direct the economy, as market mechanisms now have afar greater influence on the economy than the government does. The people-centered approach of the current leadership has meant that substantial attention has been placed on regional development disparities in an attempt to build a ＂harmonious society. ＂ China needs further extensive reforms if all the measures for reducing regional disparity are to be effective.     

欧盟成员国银行业政策主要特点分析

本文认为欧盟《第二银行指令》全面推动了欧盟各成员国银行业规制协调,可将成员国近20年以来的银行业政策主要特点归纳为四个方面,即全面放松管制、私有化、鼓励银行并购和对外扩张,金融监管体制一体化。这些政策促进了各成员国银行业竞争和快速发展,提高了欧盟银行业效率和盈利,有助于降低消费者和企业的融资成本,提高欧盟银行业整体抗风险能力。     

Analysis on effects of modern service industry to economy

This article analyzes the contribution of modern service industry to the economic development in six aspects： the modern service industry can promote economic growth, expand employment, promote economic restructuring, enhance the level of urbanization, improve people＇s standard of living and help enterprises to convert business ideas.     

THE CHANGING VOLATILITY OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY

During the last decade economic literature explored the presence of and reasons for what became known as “the great moderation” in the US and other G7 countries. “The great moderation” describes the decrease in economic volatility experienced in many of the G7 countries. This paper finds that in South Africa volatility is also not constant (it even finds that there are autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic effects present) and that volatility also decreased, particularly since 1994. Following the literature, the paper explores several reasons for this decrease and finds that smaller shocks, better monetary policy and improvements in the financial sector that place less liquidity constraints on individuals and allow them to manage their debt better are some of the main reasons for the reduction in the volatility of the South African economy. The literature on the G7 also suggests that better inventory management contributed to the lower volatility. However, this seems not to be true for South Africa.     

政府公职人员经济人性边界界定与启示

政府公职人员是特殊经济人,并且从"经济人"角度、从历史性角度、从社会契约论角度、从初始社会分工及分工发展过程角度看,政府公职人员经济人性应有必要的边界。其经济人性发挥应符合作用空间的"非市场性"、经济人性范围的日趋"紧缩性"、经济人性目标满足渠道的"单一性"及较强的"社会性"这些内在规律。把握这些规律,可有效地建立针对政府公职人员的约束机制和非市场性的竞争机制,还可有效地促进民主发展,这对提升基本公共服务综合绩效及构建和谐社会都具有重要意义。