The Keynesian Multiplier Effect Reconsidered

In the standard Keynesian framework, government spending on useless public works has a larger multiplier effect than spending on government transfer payments does. In other words, spending on useless public works increases national income by more than an equivalent increase in government transfer payments would. Nevertheless, their effects on national benefit are identical. For both, the national benefit equals the direct benefit created by the spending. If there are two income classes, some transfers reduce both the national income and the national benefit. Some government purchases completely crowd out private consumption and reduce the national benefit.     

Optimal Social Insurance with Endogenous Health*

In this paper, I analyze optimal insurance against unemployment and disability in a private information economy with endogenous health and search effort. Individuals can reduce the probability of becoming disabled by exerting prevention effort. I show that the optimal sequence of consumption is increasing for a working individual and constant for a disabled individual. During unemployment, decreasing benefits are not necessarily optimal. The prevention constraint implies increasing benefits while the search constraint demands decreasing benefits while being unemployed. However, if individuals respond sufficiently to search incentives, the latter effect dominates the former and the optimal consumption sequence is decreasing during unemployment.     

The economics of the super‐multiplier: A comprehensive treatment with labor markets

This paper links the super‐multiplier to Keynesian macroeconomics, showing it to be the most Keynesian of growth perspectives. Next, the paper shows that the super‐multiplier is a micro‐economically coherent theory of investment and capital accumulation. Firms’ decisions regarding capital accumulation coordinate demand and supply growth in goods markets. The paper then explores the implications of incorporating the super‐multiplier in the neo‐Kaleckian and Cambridge growth models. Lastly, it shows how labor markets and unemployment can be added into super‐multiplier models to provide a comprehensive growth model that addresses Solow's (1956, Journal of Economics, 70, 65–94) labor market knife‐edge problem. Incorporating labor markets does not change the fundamental super‐multiplier result that growth is determined by the growth of autonomous demand.     

Is the unemployment–inflation trade-off still alive in the Euro Area and its member countries? It seems so

The unemployment–inflation trade-off can be interpreted as a proposition concerning the response of these two variables to aggregate demand shocks. In this paper, we study the possible presence of the trade-off in the Euro Area and in a wide group of Euro-area countries in the last 20 years, that is, since the start of EMU. We use the structural VAR methodology that allows the separation between supply and demand shocks. Our main finding is that the existence of a trade-off is largely confirmed both at the Euro Area and at the national level. Nevertheless, the size of the trade-off, measured at different horizons, shows some heterogeneity among countries. No less important, when we augment the VAR model by introducing monetary policy in the context of an open economy, we find that monetary policy shocks push inflation and unemployment in opposite directions in the currency area. Another interesting result concerns the evidence of a relatively flat relation between unemployment and inflation, conditionally to monetary policy shocks. The bulk of these conclusions seem to be confirmed by a number of robustness checks.     

经济政策主要变量对控制中国失业率有效性的实证检验

随着中国经济的增长,失业率却一直居高不下,因此国家采取各种手段进行宏观调控。在回顾各种经济学派对失业理论研究的基础上,着眼于经济政策对控制失业率是否有效,在简要分析货币政策和财政政策对失业率影响的基础上,选取1991—2011年中国城镇登记失业率、货币发行量以及财政支出,通过对三者进行单位根检验和Johansen协整检验,得到三者存在唯一的协整关系,并建立误差修正模型,得出货币发行量对失业率影响较大并且较稳定的结论,并通过格兰杰因果检验,得出货币发行量和财政支出与失业率之间都不存在因果关系,最后在实证研究的基础上对当前中国如何控制失业率提出相应的对策。     

PERSONALITY TRAITS AND THE PERCEPTION OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: SURVEY EVIDENCE

I examine the determinants of both perceived inflation and unemployment in one single survey and include Big Five traits in the analysis. This is the first survey on this topic in Germany. My sample consists of 1771 students from different fields and levels. Using PhD students’ estimates as a reference, I create categories for underestimation and overestimation of both variables. Multinomial logit regressions show that females overestimate both variables. Education and news consumption reduce misestimation. A higher level of Neuroticism is related with a higher probability to overestimate unemployment. Overstating (understating) one indicator is associated with overstating (understating) the other.     

Labor Unemployment Concern and Corporate Discretionary Disclosure

We investigate how firms strategically vary their disclosure policies in response to labor unemployment concern. Using changes in state unemployment insurance laws as exogenous variations of labor unemployment concern, we show that firms provide more bad news forecasts when unemployment concern is low. This relation is stronger when firms are financially constrained, when CEOs and CFOs have higher equity incentives, and when workers are likely to be affected more by unemployment. Our findings are not driven by earnings management reversal or underlying performance changes, and are robust to a battery of identification tests. Finally, we find a similar effect of unemployment concern on disclosure using the tone of 10‐K and 10‐Q filings as an alternative proxy for corporate disclosure. Overall, our findings suggest that labor unemployment concern is an important consideration for corporate discretionary disclosure.     

The Greek economic crisis: causes and alternative policies

The Greek economic crisis is primarily structural and the result of an international economic impasse that developed in 2007, with devastating implications for the struggling peripheral economies of Europe. This article suggests that falling profitability led to the stagnation of profits, which in turn discouraged new investment, decreased production and increased unemployment. The resulting recessionary economic environment, in conjunction with the mounting public debt and the austerity policies imposed on the Greek economy by the so-called ‘troika’ of creditors in 2010, has decimated the Greek economy even further, causing one of the worst economic crises since the Second World War. The article also provides some broad guidelines for an alternative economic policy.     

Spot market wages,implicit contracts and technological change: skill-level evidence from Finland

This article investigates the relevance of the theories of implicit contracts and spot market model to the skill-level wages in Finland. We use linked worker-firm panel data over the period from 1991 to 2004, which included major institutional and technological changes. We find similar patterns in the wage flexibility of primary and highly educated workers: their wages increased with the decreasing spot market unemployment rate after the EU membership still exhibiting some weak backward linkages. The wages of the secondary-educated did not follow the decreasing spot market unemployment, but instead some signs of the full commitment risk sharing were found.     

关于菏泽市失业保险促进就业和稳定就业的调查与思考

为充分发挥失业保险在新形势下促进就业和稳定就业的作用,文章从实践的角度对菏泽市近两年失业保险促进就业和稳定就业的作用进行了调查研究分析,找出了目前存在的问题,并提出相应的意见和建议。