Regional heterogeneity and U.S. presidential elections: Real-time 2020 forecasts and evaluation

This paper exploits cross-sectional variation at the level of U.S. counties to generate real-time forecasts for the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The forecasting models are trained on data covering the period 2000–2016, using high-dimensional variable selection techniques. Our county-based approach contrasts the literature that focuses on national and state level data but uses longer time periods to train their models. The paper reports forecasts of popular and electoral college vote outcomes and provides a detailed ex-post evaluation of the forecasts released in real time before the election. It is shown that all of these forecasts outperform autoregressive benchmarks. A pooled national model using One-Covariate-at-a-time-Multiple-Testing (OCMT) variable selection significantly outperformed all models in forecasting the U.S. mainland national vote share and electoral college outcomes (forecasting 236 electoral votes for the Republican party compared to 232 realized). This paper also shows that key determinants of voting outcomes at the county level include incumbency effects, unemployment, poverty, educational attainment, house price changes, and international competitiveness. The results are also supportive of myopic voting: economic fluctuations realized a few months before the election tend to be more powerful predictors of voting outcomes than their long-horizon analogs.     

Short reports

In this study, we assessed the epidemiological patterns of suicide terrorism in the civilian population of Pakistan. Information about suicide terrorism-related events, deaths and injuries was extracted from the South-Asian Terrorism Portal (SATP) for the period from 2002 to October 2009. Of 198 events, civilians were involved in 194 events. Civilians accounted for 74.1% (N = 2017) of those who died and 93.8% (N = 6129) of those who were injured. In nine districts, mortality rates were more than one death per 100,000 inhabitants per year. The yearly trend showed a shift of attack targets from foreigners and sectarian targets in 2002–2005 to security forces or general public in 2006–2009. Attacks on public installations (mosques) or political gatherings resulted in a significantly greater (P ≤ 0.02) number of deaths (22 vs. 8) and injuries (59 vs. 24) per event compared with security installations. These results show that prevention might focus on political negotiation with armed groups and that appropriate measures should be taken to protect mosques and political gatherings.     

Young People's Attitudes Towards British Political Advertising: Nurturing or Impeding Voter Engagement?

SUMMARY

This article presents findings from a national survey of ‘potential’ first time voters at the 2001 British General Election–specifically their attitudes towards the print advertising used by the main political parties during this election. In analysing the data, the authors were particularly interested in examining the claim that political advertising contributes to a sense of malaise–most acutely apparent among young people. While we found high levels of claimed advertising awareness, this was coupled with largely unfavourable attitudes towards most of the print advertising used in the election. Despite these judgements, most young people considered the advertising to be at least as persuasive as its commercial cousins. Not surprisingly the evidence provides a mixed picture in terms of the role political advertising plays in the political dispositions of young people. As a familiar discourse advertising offers the political classes an entry point to establish a dialogue with young sections of the electorate. However, for many young people, political advertising appears to help reinforce their predilection about politics being something one naturally distrusts.     

Marketing communications implications of children's new electronic media use: a survey of parental opinions and perceptions

Currently new electronic media, the Internet in particular, are poised to become a major part of the marketing and communications mix, not only for adults but also children. This poses challenges and heralds a new debate on both protection of the young vis‐à‐vis more equitable access and the need, nature and forms of regulation warranted. This paper reviews the literature on this debate and related issues. It reports on a New Zealand empirical study of parental perceptions of their children's electronic media use and examines the findings and the insights obtained on the use of the Internet and its role as a marketing communications medium. It also reports on what these parents consider to be the key concerns in this area and their Internet site preferences. The issues relating to children, the Internet and the link between violence and video games are examined and implications for marketing communications are discussed.     

Information and communications technologies in the two Koreas: Contrasts,commonalities, challenges

The purpose of this study is to review the relationship of electoral system and democracy in the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia. The study looks at the transformation process of the electoral system in each country, and performs a comparative study on post‐democratization electoral reforms using the concepts of competitiveness and fairness. It is found that electoral systems displayed low levels of competitiveness and fairness before democratization, but that their reforms have led to an increase in competitiveness and an improvement in fairness in all three countries. Also, while the post‐democratization electoral reforms have facilitated the above‐mentioned democratic virtues, there have been significant country differences in the details of their progress. The Philippines promoted the competitiveness of the electoral system by adopting a party list system and guest candidate system. Although Thailand and Indonesia showed competitiveness in their electoral systems, they prohibited the participation of non‐partisan candidates in elections for the sake of stability of party politics. The differences are reflections of their particular political histories and contexts.     

Global monitor

Until recently, theories of war in Africa and other underdeveloped social formations have foundered on notions of ‘poverty=war” and vice versa. Newer thinking, however, asks questions in line with classical Marxist perspectives veering away from dependencia, relating war in the ‘dark continent’ to issues of class formation and (“primitive”) accumulation. Christopher Cramer's Civil War is not a Stupid Thing in particular raises historically and comparatively grounded questions about the relationship between coercion and ‘development’ that challenge both dependency and liberal thinking. Yet, as assessments of contemporary writing on similar issues (including ‘post-conflict studies’) illustrate, the quality of this type of thinking in no way guarantees its intellectual hegemony.     

基于人类智能研究的电气自动化系统设计思想初探

科学技术日新月异,已成为当今世界经济和社会发展的决定性力量。而人作为实现科学技术不断进步的主体,在自身特别是人的智能研究和开发方面,取得了突破性的进展。文章认为,现代电气自动化系统的设计,其思想逻辑完全符合自然法则及人脑生物学的科学原理和方法,有效地促进了电力事业的高速发展,为人类的生产和生活提供了技术支撑及保证。     

Balancing Civil Rights With Safety at Work: Workplace Violence and the ADA

Workplace violence has become an increasingly common occurrence in recent years. During the years 1992–1996, there were over 5,000 job-related homicides in the United States, and in 1996 alone there were 1,364 nonfatal assaults committed by coworkers or former coworkers. Although it would be both inaccurate and inappropriate to suggest that these acts have generally been committed by persons suffering from severe emotional and mental disorders, this is clearly one of the possible explanations. In light of these facts and given the recent Equal Employment Opportunity Commission's Guidance on the Americans with Disabilities Act and Psychiatric Disabilities, the obligations and prerogatives of employers in terms of hiring and posthiring actions need to be discussed. This paper examines the legal issues, the EEOC's Guidance, and offers specific suggestions for developing an effective hiring process, as well as methods to use when dealing with current employees who pose a threat of violence because of mental and emotional disorders.