基于体积分方程法的起伏地形三维电场正演

利用体积分方程实现了起伏地形三维电场的正演模拟。首先推导了起伏地形条件下的积分方程,在求解电并矢格林函数积分这一关键问题时,将其分解为一次电流项、一次电荷项和二次项;随后进行了模型试算,结果表明电场在地形和地下不均匀体处均有异常出现。     

电气绝缘材料耐热性能的探讨

电气绝缘耐热性多年来一直是国内外重点研究项目之一,本文通过介绍其现阶段的研究发展现状和选用的基本原则,旨在提高相关从业人员对电气绝缘材料耐热性的认识。     

应力函数法计算蠕变地层套管的载荷

本文采用应力函数法研究蠕变地层中套管载荷的分布规律。将套管看成弹性体,把地层看成无穷大的粘弹性体,根据开尔文模型平面应变的本构方程,极坐标形式的平衡方程、变形协调方程及几何方程,采用应力函数法,解出了均匀地应力条件下蠕变地层套管载荷的解析解。为寻求非均匀地应力条件下蠕变地层套管载荷的解析解提供了理论参考。     

中国和印度规范荷载组合的对比

改革开放三十年来,中国经济发生翻天覆地的变化,各行各业也得到了蓬勃发展,工程建设行业纷纷走向国际市场。印度是一个巨大的市场,基础设施的建设存在很大发展空间。在国内各大公司进军印度市场的设计市场时,不免会遇到印度规范的问题。本人参与多年的印度电厂的设计工作,对印度结构规范有了一些了解,本文就中印两国规范的荷载组合进行对比分析,希望对大家在进军印度设计市场时有点帮助。     

道路运输行业面向节能减排的I/M制度检测方法研究

I/M制度是保证汽车处于良好的技术状况,投资最少、最有效、最根本的途径。文章介绍了适用于我国道路运输行业现状的I/M制度在实施时所能采用的检测方法。并且对这些检测方法进行了详细的分析及比较。     

负载均衡技术概念及应用

网络负载均衡是分布式业务中调度系统的一种实现。负载均衡器作为网络请求分配的控制者,要根据集群节点的当前处理能力,采用集中或分布策略对网络服务请求进行调配,并且在每个服务请求的生命周期里监控各个节点的有效状态。本文在阐述拒绝服务攻击基本概念的基础上,分析并探讨了网络负载均衡技术在网络抗拒绝服务中的应用。     

岩滩水电站水文预报方案研究

文章介绍了红水河岩滩水电站水文预报的方案、内容及作业方法。     

Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters?

We investigate the relative impact of internal Delphi process factors - including panelists' degree of confidence, expertise, majority/minority positioning - and an external factor, richness of feedback - on opinion change and subsequent accuracy of judgmental forecasts. We found that panelists who had low confidence in their judgmental forecast and/or who were in a minority were more likely to change their opinion than those who were more confident and/or in a majority. The addition of rationales, or reasons, to the numeric feedback had little impact upon panelists' final forecasts, despite the quality of panelists' rationales being significantly positively correlated with accurate forecasts and thus of potential use to aid forecast improvement over Delphi rounds. Rather, the effect of rationales was similar to that of confidence: to pull panelists towards the majority opinion regardless of its correctness. We conclude that majority opinion is the strongest influence on panelists' opinion change in both the ‘standard’ Delphi, and Delphi-with-reasons. We make some suggestions for improved variants of the Delphi-with-reasons technique that should help reduce majority influence and thereby permit reasoned arguments to exert their proper pull on opinion change, resulting in forecast accuracy improvements over Delphi rounds.     

Technology level evaluation methodology based on the technology growth curve

Technology has been the driving force of development for knowledge-based economies. As competition in technology innovation among nations becomes more intense, there is a growing need for improved judgment, evaluation and prediction of scientific technology capacity in order to enhance national competitiveness. Until now, a country's technology level has been evaluated on a relative basis by comparing it with that of the country with the world's best technology. However, this kind of static methodology makes the interpretation of results unclear and makes time series analysis difficult. One of the most important limitations of this methodology is that it cannot be used to establish a strategy to improve the technology level. This paper examines the methodological problems of technology level evaluation and develops a dynamic methodology by applying the technology growth curve model. We also analyze the real technology level by using a new model application and review the relevance of this method. Finally, we discuss how to use the results in order to create a dynamic technology strategy.     

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.