Predicting the geo-temporal variations of crime and disorder

Traditional police boundaries—precincts, patrol districts, etc.—often fail to reflect the true distribution of criminal activity and thus do little to assist in the optimal allocation of police resources. This paper introduces methods for crime incident forecasting by focusing upon geographical areas of concern that transcend traditional policing boundaries. The computerised procedure utilises a geographical crime incidence-scanning algorithm to identify clusters with relatively high levels of crime (hot spots). These clusters provide sufficient data for training artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of modelling trends within them. The approach to ANN specification and estimation is enhanced by application of a novel and noteworthy approach, the Gamma test (GT).     

Analysing Materials and Energy Flows in an Industrial District using an Enterprise Input–Output Model

Recent approaches to sustainable development leave much room for policies at a local level. In fact, it is becoming evident that targets such as increasing resource productivity, preserving natural cycles, or extending the present level of welfare, are best pursued within the confines of a local area. In particular, environmental changes are best brought about by considering local systems of firms as cornerstones of cooperative strategies and using data on materials and energy use in physical terms. In this paper, an enterprise input–output model is developed for an industrial district, i.e. a local group of firms specialized in the production of a single final output. The model allows for a detailed quantitative analysis of materials and energy flows and the consequent generation of waste and pollution. As a planning tool, the model may be used to evaluate alternative scenarios, such as the possibility of re- using waste taking account of sustainability requirements. An empirical case study applies the model to an industrial district in Southern Italy producing leather sofas.     

会计在风险管理中的作用

风险无处不在,如何在管理中规避或利用风险是企业成功的关键之一.企业应在分析风险成因的基础上,对风险计量、会计披露制度、会计信息的反馈控制功能在风险管理活动中的作用进行分析,从会计学角度采取风险管理的具体措施.     

实现企业高成长的价值创新利基、途径及风险

作为一种新的战略逻辑,价值创新逻辑已经在一些高成长企业的战略实践中显示出巨大效力。价值创新的利基和途径依企业的类别而异。本文将以企业价值链及其多重联系为切入点,提出中间投入品生产型企业实现高成长的价值创新利基和途径,并对价值创新的风险进行了初步的探讨。     

Empirical Investigation on China＇s Private Enterprises Performance Change Before and After Listing

This paper evaluates the performance change of the private enterprises listed on China＇s two exchanges during 2 years before and after listing in the period of 1996-2001. It is concluded that earning ability, real sales and financing are significantly improved, while only profitability decline a little bit after the private firms listed. In addition, we find that IPO private firms have appreciably better performance than that of BS ones as well as the financing condition becomes finer, which is relative to both the attributes of the private enterprises and Chinese regulatory rules. Therefore, we figured out that the outcome of private firms listing is positive, and China＇s economic reform will be a step-by-step process.     

企业合同管理制度创新初探

合同是企业与外部进行物流、资金流、信息流交换的基本形式；当前我国市场规则和秩序还不很规范，合同极易被不法分子利用，进行各种违法犯罪活动，企业就可能因此蒙受巨大的经济损失。因此，搞好合同管理，是维护企业合法权益的最基本的要求。文章从分析目前企业合同管理中存在的问题人手，提出完善和创新企业合同管理的建议。     

The approach to transforming the traditional agricultural economy: a research on the multiple paths of poverty alleviation and transformation in rural China

Transforming a traditional agricultural economy into a modern economy is one of the main themes in economic development. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper finds out that the key to transformation is to raise the economic value of people, to improve human capital investment and to match the stocks of physical and human capital. China’s rural economy is on the edge of economic take-off, and different zones may pursue different paths for transformation. The source of rural poverty is not the scarcity of income or consumption, but the deficiency of education, social security, medical care and economic opportunity, which we define as “capability poverty”. __________ Translated from The Journal of World Economy (世界经济), 2005,(2) (in Chinese)     

An investigation of transformation-based prediction interval for the Weibull median life

Statistical inference based on the Weibull distribution, a distribution widely used in reliability and survival analysis, is usually difficult as it often involves numerical computation and approximation. However, this distribution can be transformed to near-normality by a simple power transformation. Based on this transformation, a prediction interval (PI) for its median can be easily constructed through an inverse transformation. The procedure for selecting the best power transformation through minimizing Kullback-Leibler information is described. The property of this transformation-based PI is investigated. Simple correction factors are also proposed. It is shown that the transformation-based PI with corrections performs well, irrespective of the sample size and parameter values. Simulation results show that the new PI generally outperforms the existing PI. Numerical examples are given for illustration.     

信息服务模式及网络利用

当今的用户获取信息的渠道越来越广,这使得信息服务面临着多方面的竞争。对于从事信息服务的工作者而言,如何让信息真正有效地服务于各行各业和广大用户,以及依据什么因素来选择恰当的服务模式与推动模式的更新都是非常重要的。文章初步探讨了信息服务模式的变化,以及网络在信息服务中的利用。     

转型与经济信息生产方式的演化创新

一定制度下的经济信息生产方式是决定其资源配置效率的重要基础。从制度或资源配置方式的转型角度,分析了经济信息生产方式与一定制度下资源配置的效率关系;指出与传统自由市场经济相对应的现行的会计、统计理论方法及其制度属于经济信息个体性生产方式,不适应以混合经济为特征的现代市场经济对经济信息的需求;最后以现代市场经济的混合经济特征为基点,从市场经济活动的广泛联系性、经济信息的公共物品性和满足社会需求出发,提出了建立经济信息社会化生产方式与制度模式的构想。