Conditions for Optimality of a Currency Area

Two approaches to the theory of OCA are distinguished in this paper. The first, called the marginalistic approach, attempts to define the OCA from the point of view of a single country, and the second examines the optimality of a currency area of a given membership. The marginalistic approach and its limitations are discussed first. Then, the paper proceeds to the second approach which is discussed in the context of the cooperative game theory in characteristic function form; it argues that a currency area is optimal when the welfare functions of its constituent members are in the core. This implies that the welfare functions of all constituent members of the currency area are maximized and hence they are all better off with a common currency rather than with their own national currencies; hence, no member country has the intention to abandon the currency area. The paper concludes that the condition for the optimality of a currency area independently of the degree of economic similarity of its constituents requires that the characteristic function must exhibit non decreasing returns with respect to its size.     

中国共产党人继承和发展了马克思主义人口理论

中国共产党人的人口思想是以三代中央领导集体为代表的中国共产党人把马思主义人口理论同中国社会主义建设事业的具体实践相结合的产物,是中国共产党集体智慧的结晶.从多个方面论述了中国共产党人人口思想对马克思主义人口理论的继承和发展.     

行为科学对经济社会发展的推动作用

行为科学作为管理科学的基础之一，它的发展，为科技教育和经济社会发展带来了新的推动。它研究需要动机理论和群体行为、领导行为及劳动的心理活动，这些都直接促进人力资源的管理和开发，推动社会主义现代化建设。     

Keynes,investment, unemployment and expectations

In Keynes’ General Theory, investment determines effective demand, which determines unemployment and the labour market plays a negligible role. In New Keynesian models, labour market institutions determine the natural rate of unemployment and the speed at which unemployment adjusts to it. Investment is mostly ignored as a key variable behind the problem of high unemployment, despite a strong empirical association between investment and unemployment. We discuss the evolution of the ‘Keynesian’ model, and how in the process of domesticating the General Theory, the central relationship between unemployment and investment and the role of the state of confidence was bred out of the model. We then present some evidence of the centrality of investment and expectations to the long‐term evolution of unemployment in OECD countries. We also argue that recent results in finance, which find that individuals do not behave rationally and, moreover, that there may be no basis for rational calculation, provides support for Keynes’s notion that animal spirits play a central role in investment.     

Risky business: How social psychology can help improve corporate risk management

Drawing on research in management theory, risk analysis, and the social sciences, this installment of Business Law & Ethics Corner promotes diversity of thought in corporate governance as not only beneficial to business growth and creativity, but also imperative to managing risk successfully. The article begins with a review of four major worldviews and the risk preferences of each. Next, it examines psychological processes that guide human decision making and greatly influence risk perception. The article then applies these worldviews and psychological phenomena to the case of risk management. It offers a critique of current risk management practices, drawing on evidence from the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The article concludes by promoting increased diversity of worldviews in corporate governance as a way to prevent the same risk blindness that led to the Great Recession.     

CEO tenure and ownership mode choice of Chinese firms: The moderating roles of managerial discretion

Based on upper echelon theory, this study has explored how CEO tenure affects ownership mode choice of Chinese firms investing abroad, and how some organizational factors, such as firm size, firm age and CEO duality, moderate this relationship. Using secondary data, this study finds CEO tenure has a positive relationship with the choice of full control mode, CEO duality can reinforce this relationship, but firm size and firm age have no significant moderating effect.     

Linking Order Fulfillment Performance to Referrals in Online Retailing: An Empirical Analysis

Referral management for online retailers is a strategically important activity, as referrals offer a highly cost‐effective method of customer acquisition. In fact, online customers mention referrals as the second‐most common reason for choosing to shop at a particular retailer, second only to search engine suggestions. However, while online retailers are able to improve their visibility on search engines through focused keyword insertions, they are often unable to pinpoint the drivers of referral behavior among their customers. The current research examines the relationship between two key dimensions of online retailing: order fulfillment cycle times and referral behavior. Employing a theory of customer appraisal and empirically testing the ensuing model using structural equation modeling, we find that excellent order fulfillment is instrumental in generating referrals for the online retailer, even after factoring in product quality.     

FORECASTING VOLATILITY WITH THE MULTIFRACTAL RANDOM WALK MODEL

We study the problem of forecasting volatility for the multifractal random walk model. In order to avoid the ill‐posed problem of estimating the correlation length T of the model, we introduce a limiting object defined in a quotient space; formally, this object is an infinite range log volatility. For this object and the nonlimiting object, we obtain precise prediction formulas and we apply them to the problem of forecasting volatility and pricing options with the MRW model in the absence of a reliable estimate of σ and T.     

对管理学的理解和认识——基于理论的视角

管理学作为当代社会科学一门主流学科难以名副其实。理论研究中的方向迷失造成管理理论的异常混乱。管理理论与实践脱节在全世界都是严重的问题。中国管理学研究者的自娱自乐式研究和骗取科研经费的“伪装式”研究应当终止。有责任的管理学研究者应该致力于纠正偏失，以特有的使命感，为振兴中国管理学做出力所能及的贡献。     

从关联理论视角解读幽默言语的认知过程

关联理论作为解释人类交际的认知语用学理论,同样也适用于幽默言语的研究。幽默言语的认知过程遵循最佳关联原则,即从启动最大关联语境的第一阶段进入到寻找最佳关联语境的第二阶段。而幽默言语的幽默效应正是来自于最大关联与最佳关联之间意义的反差。