Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth

China has been keeping high economic growth rate since it carried out managed floating exchange rate regimes in 1994, while now begins to face retrenchment pressure brought by the depression of internal and external economy. The establishment of RMB exchange rate regime should take account of the validity of macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic growth and the regional internationalization of RMB.     

福建农村六合彩参与度及影响因素分析——来自安溪县的实证研究

以福建安溪县为典型案例,采用等比例类型抽样法和半结构访谈法,对安溪县六合彩现状进行调研,通过对安溪县六合彩参与度分析,农村居民参与六合彩经济行为影响因素的实证研究,并结合新形势下六合彩出现的变化及新特点,为政府合理地解决农村六合彩问题提供决策参考。     

Shanxi Merchants’ Multilevel Financial System in Ming and Qing Dynasties,China

In the Ming and Qing Dynasties (1368–1911), China saw rapid development in industrial and commercial sectors. Over this period, a group of merchants originating from the inland province of Shanxi gradually built a multilevel financial system and became leaders in China’s banking sector. The system of financial institutions they established (pawnshops, seal shops, money shops, loan banks, and draft banks) each had a unique business model, with specific target client group and carefully designed risk management. They were also interconnected to allow for flexible capital flows, contributing to the fast economic growth in this period. Nevertheless, the traditional system also had limitations, leading to its replacement by modern banks eventually.     

上市公司如何在非理性世界中确定股权回报率

确定股权回报率是进行长期投资决策的关键步骤,但在现实非理性世界中难以直接运用传统财务理论所推荐的资本资产定价模型来确定股权回报率。针对FAR与NEER方法,本文首先探讨这两类方法的理论依据并揭示其本质内涵,然后说明:在非理性世界中,如果上市公司管理者追求公司价值最大化目标,那么就应该基于公司项目的基本风险来确定股权回报率;相反地,如果管理者追求近期股价最大化,那么就应该基于市场投资者的预期来确定股权回报率。     

利率对我国房价调控效应的实证研究

理论研究表明利率对房价的影响方向取决于房地产需求和供给对于利率变动反应的敏感性,但实践检验结论不一。为此,文章首先通过建立一个动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),从理论上分析了利率对房价的影响,然后基于我国1998年1季度-2013年4季度的房价和利率数据,采用协整、向量误差纠正模型和基于VAR的脉冲响应、方差分解等手段实证检验了利率调控我国房价的数量效应。研究发现,长期中利率推动了我国房价的上涨,但脉冲响应和方差分解表明利率对房价上涨的推动作用有限;VECM估计表明短期中调整利率与房价向其长期均衡水平回归的动态机制不存在,房价会进一步偏离其均衡状态,这意味着短期中利率对房价的调控效应更差,房价会进一步上涨。     

Demystifying the Meese–Rogoff puzzle: structural breaks or measures of forecasting accuracy?

Structural breaks have been suggested by several economists as a possible explanation for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle, in the sense that an exchange rate model can outperform the random walk in terms of the out-of-sample forecasting error if the period under investigation is free of structural breaks. The results indicate that structural breaks cannot explain the inability of the flexible price monetary model to outperform the random walk. The only plausible explanation for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle is that forecasting accuracy is traditionally assessed by magnitude-only measures. When forecasting accuracy is assessed by alternative measures that do not rely exclusively on the magnitude of error, the monetary model can outperform the random walk regardless of the presence or otherwise of structural breaks.     

金融危机以来我国沿海港口货物吞吐量影响因素研究——兼论我国经济由外需拉动向内需驱动转型的一个证据

通过建立基于贸易引力模型的我国沿海港口货物吞吐量影响因素的VAR模型,分别考察了交通运输业固定投资、人民币汇率、世界经济状况和国内经济状况对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响,并以金融危机以来的数据作为样本对该模型进行了实证检验.由脉冲响应和方差分解分析发现:世界经济发展状况对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响最大,且世界经济的复...     

The impact of sharing accommodation on the hotel occupancy rate in the kingdom of Swaziland

This paper examines the relationship and impact of sharing accommodation on the hotel occupancy rate (HOR) from a developing country perspective. Using panel data on the monthly HOR and the number of Airbnb room occupancy rate for the periods 2012–2016 and 2015–2016, respectively, the study applies a hierarchical regression model to respond to the research questions. The Pearson correlation test reveals a positive relationship between the HOR and Airbnb room occupancy rate, thus indicating that an increase in the hotel room occupancy rate moves in tandem with a rise in the Airbnb room occupancy rate. Further test revealed that increase in the Airbnb room occupancy rate coincided with an increase in the hotel room occupancy rate. In addition, the Airbnb platform was found to appeals to a different tourist market profile than does that of hotels, and that, therefore, the two products may be viewed as non-competitors. Furthermore, inconsistencies in regulatory provisions, in terms of which hotels are required to undergo various legal procedures as opposed to such platforms, are evident. The study recommends that the Swaziland Government should undertake stakeholder consultations aimed at developing regulations to manage and monitor sharing accommodation platform participants that will incorporate its innovative and diverse dimensions. The study is important as it provides insights into tourism destination managers on the impact of the sharing economy from a developing country perspective where empirically based research that could be useful in policy formulation is scant.     

人民币参考篮子货币的测定与实证分析

自2005年7月21日起,我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。那么,篮子货币的构成如何,已成为国际社会关注的焦点。文章借鉴东南亚发展中国家汇率制度的变迁经验,联系我国的实际情况,采用协整理论以及基于VAR的Granger因果关系检验方法,构造了一种参考货币篮子。建议以美元(USD)、日元(JPY)、欧元(EUR)、港元(HKD)、韩元(KRW)、台湾元(TWD)、英镑(GBP)和澳元(AUD)等8种货币为篮子货币。实证结果显示:篮子货币汇率均为人民币实际有效汇率的Granger原因,它们与人民币实际有效汇率之间存在长期的协整关系。人民币汇率转向参考一篮子货币汇率较单一钉住美元具有很好的弹性。文章还针对稳定贸易为目标的政策选择,计算了篮子货币的最优权重。最后,基于我国的实际汇率数据,构建了人民币参考一篮子汇率模型,分析了参考一篮子汇率制的制度优势。     

Non-binding sequential exchange between discounting agents

When exchange is sequential, and no binding agreements can be written, the agent acting first is exposed to the possibility that even if he honors the agreement his trading partner might not. Repeated interaction of this nature is modeled. Exchange will successfully occur when there are ample gains from trade for the second agent, implying that the first agent may be better off with less bargaining power. Thus, the first agent may want to bargain at less than his full ability in order to ensure that an otherwise unsuccessful transaction will successfully occur. Additionally, if the first agent can facilitate exchange by hiring an escrow service, he will do so when his bargaining advantage is sufficiently large.JEL subject classification C70, D40, L14