Coalition formation in general apex games under monotonic power indices

An apex game consists of one apex player and a set of minor players. We identify two key properties of apex games and use them to introduce the class of general apex games. We derive players' preferences over winning coalitions by applying strongly monotonic power indices on such a game and all its subgames and investigate whether there are core stable coalitions in the induced hedonic coalition formation game. Besides several general results, in particular, we develop conditions on the game for the Shapley–Shubik index, the Banzhaf index, and the normalized Banzhaf index.     

Asymmetric Exchange Rates and Unofficial Exchange Rate Interventions: The Case of South Korea

Applying Milton Friedman's ‘plucking’ model of output fluctuations, we investigate the behavior of the Korean won/dollar exchange rate using a state-space model with Markov switching, which incorporates both symmetric and asymmetric shocks. We find that the Korean won/US dollar exchange rate rarely falls below its trend, but is plucked upward from time to time by transitory shocks. This asymmetry suggests that the monetary authority unofficially intervenes in the foreign exchange market to support its own target level from below. Further evidence from changes in reserve assets indirectly supports our finding.     

Monetary and banking policy transmission through interest rates: an empirical application to the USA,Canada, the UK and the Eurozone

The main purpose of this paper is an examination of the pass‐through interest rate transmission from the wholesale rates (central bank and/or money market rates) to the retail rates (deposit and lending rates) of the banking system. Knowledge of the transmission substantially helps us to calculate the pass‐through interest rate margin or mark‐up in the banking systems under examination (USA, Canada, the UK and the Eurozone). The selection of the wholesale interest rate is also an important part of this pass‐through transmission framework because it is related to the money supply process and therefore the central bank's policy capabilities. In the empirical part, a Johansen (1988) cointegration based error‐correction procedure (ECM‐GE) is implemented for the wholesale interest rate selection. Then an LSE–Hendry general‐to‐specific model (GETS) is applied, for the revelation of the banking sector pass‐through interest rate behaviour. In the empirical part, on the issue of the wholesale interest rate selection, the USA and the Eurozone seem to favour the Money Market rate while the UK and Canada favour the central bank policy rate. The results indicate two types of interest rate pass‐through behaviour, with market structure implication – namely, the US and UK banking systems contrasted with Canada–Eurozone.     

利率规则与通货膨胀：一个模型分析

物价水平居高不下是我国政府和广大居民目前所面临的一个严峻问题。调控货币数量和名义利率水平是治理通货膨胀的两大举措。一部分投资者只能参与产品交易,而另一部分投资者既可以参与产品交易,也可参与债券交易,且存在速度冲击,交易者初始禀赋是同一的条件下,通过公开市场操作而购买债券会降低利率水平;在速度冲击是独立同分布的情况下,速度冲击对货币增长率的影响是暂时性的。     

Central bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates

In this paper, we estimate ARFIMA–FIGARCH models for the major exchange rates (against the US dollar) which have been subject to direct central bank interventions in the last decades. We show that the normality assumption is not adequate due to the occurrence of volatility outliers and its rejection is related to these interventions. Consequently, we rely on a normal mixture distribution that allows for endogenously determined jumps in the process governing the exchange rate dynamics. This distribution performs rather well and is found to be important for the estimation of the persistence of volatility shocks. Introducing a time-varying jump probability associated to central bank interventions, we find that the central bank interventions, conducted in either a coordinated or unilateral way, induce a jump in the process and tend to increase exchange rate volatility.     

Balance of payments accounting and exchange rate dynamics

The balance of payments is an accounting identity. Many wonder how the current and capital accounts, which add up to zero, can influence exchange rates. This paper shows how payment flows arising from balance of payments imbalances affect the demands for different currencies in the foreign exchange market over time. Based on a dynamical system approach, the paper demonstrates how international payments evolve depending on the joint dynamic behaviour of different balance of payments components. It finds that international payments and exchange rates interact in fundamentally different ways depending on whether a country restricts its capital inflows and outflows, whether capital flows are accommodating or autonomous and whether the exchange rate is fixed, flexible or, say, governed by a crawling peg. Empirical evidence from major industrial countries as well as from countries hit by currency crises support the paper's theoretical predictions.     

Measurement of Technology Spillovers

This paper builds an externality-based model with physical and R&D capital, proves the linearity of technology functions, and derives two measures of spillovers from the relative differences between social and private rates of return. China’s regional empiric studies exhibit a reverse direction of spillovers between foreign invested firms and local economy and provide an estimation of the spillover measures of between 13% and 18%.     

The microstructure of exchange rate management: FX intervention and capital controls in Brazil

This article uses a microstructure approach to analyse the effectiveness of capital controls introduced in Brazil to counter an appreciation of the Real. Based on a rich data set from the Brazilian foreign exchange market, we estimate a reduced-form VAR to characterize the interaction of the central bank, financial and commercial customers in times of regulatory policy measures. We find that capital controls change market participants’ behaviour, and that central bank interventions elicit a significant response in financial order flow. Referring to the source of order flow, we find no direct price impact by financial flows and thus no evidence that the appreciation of the Real is driven by financial customers’ activity. Instead, commercial customers seem to be a primary driver of the Real within our model.     

基于气候区划的中国建成区绿地率 区域差异研究

气候是影响城市绿地的基础性自然因素,定量研究气候对建成区绿地率的影响,利于合理调控城市绿地建设。以中国县级市及以上城市为样本,综合运用标准差、变异系数和锡尔系数等方法,探究1996—2015年不同气候区划建成区绿地率区域差异状况。结果表明：1)从发展水平看,不同气候区划具显著差异,热带高于温带,湿润、半湿润区高于半干旱、干旱区,其中,热带与湿润区、半湿润区城市重合度高,是气候优势区位;2)从差异度看,不同气候区划差异度具明显区别,温带差异度高于热带,干旱、半干旱区高于湿润、半湿润区;3)从差异分解看,温度带间建成区绿地率不平衡对全国总差异的影响度大于干湿区间,温度带间差异是我国总体差异的主要原因。以期为揭示气候对城市绿地建设水平的影响作用提供理论依据。     

我国公共财政制度的完善

消费与投资增长不协调是我国当前宏观经济中的重要问题,这个问题已成为我国经济社会协调发展的严重障碍,公共财政制度不完善是这一问题产生的财政体制根源。所以, 加快公共财政体制建设就成了解决这一问题的根本途径。就我国当前来说,公共财政应该加大对义务教育、公共卫生、社会保障、"三农"问题、收入分配和就业问题的支持力度和调控力度。