Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade

Based on a French firm-level database that combines information on balance-sheet and destination-specific export information over the period 1995–2009, we document a new stylized fact related to the heterogeneous reaction of exporters to RER volatility: we show that strongly multi-destination firms tend to reduce significantly more their exports to a destination that faces higher exchange-rate volatility. We also show that, following an exchange-rate volatility shock in a given country, strongly multi-destination firms increase exports to all other destinations served. This specific behavior of multi-destination firms has significant aggregate implications. First, the bilateral aggregate impact is increasingly negative with the weight of multi-destination firms in total exports towards the considered destination. Second, the reallocation behavior of large, multi-destination firms ultimately translates into stable total French exports (summed over all destinations).     

Genetic multi-model composite forecast for non-linear prediction of exchange rates

The existence of non-linear deterministic structures in the dynamics of exchange rates has already been amply demonstrated. In this paper, we attempt to exploit these non-linear structures employing forecasting techniques, such as Genetic Programming and Neural Networks, in the specific case of the Yen/US$ and Pound Sterling/US$ exchange rates. Forecasts obtained from genetic programming and neural networks are then genetically fused to verify whether synergy provides an improvement in the predictions. Our analysis considers both point predictions and the anticipating of either depreciations or appreciations.First version received: July 2003 / Final version received: June 2004We wish to thank Pacific Exchange Rate Service for providing us the data.     

A contribution to the empirics of convergence in real GDP growth: the role of financial crises and exchange-rate regimes

This paper investigates the convergence in real gross domestic product growth focusing on the impact of financial crises (i.e. banking crises, currency crises and debt crises) and nominal exchange-rate regimes (i.e. fixed, intermediate and flexible) on convergence. To that end, we compute four convergence indicators (σ-convergence, γ-convergence, absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence) for 163 countries classified into four income groups during the period 1970–2011. The results suggest that (i) there is evidence in favour of σ-convergence and γ-convergence only for high-income countries; (ii) absolute and conditional β-convergence are present in each of the four income groups of the countries under study; (iii) exchange-rate regimes seem to play some role in upper-middle and lower-middle-income countries; and (iv) financial crises have a negative and significant impact on GDP growth independently of the income level of the countries.     

三频段准连续波雷达信号目标检测性能分析

准连续波雷达是一种低截获概率雷达,结合了脉冲雷达收发隔离和连续波雷达截获概率低的优点,但其检测性能的优劣很大程度依赖于信号形式,普通的编码信号和线性调频信号已经不能满足其对目标探测的要求。为解决这个问题,设计了一种三频段信号和与之相应的收发系统,对系统结构及三频段信号的参数选择原则、目标检测原理、模糊函数、抗近距离盲区性能做了详细分析,并指出了三频段信号相对于相位编码信号和分时发射信号的优势所在,最后通过仿真证明,将三频段信号应用于准连续波体制雷达中时能准确探测目标,得到目标的各个参数并且能有效消除近距离盲区。     

人民币汇率对中国物价影响的实证研究

物价和汇率是开放经济体中两个核心的经济变量,两者间的相互作用对各国经济的影响也日渐显著。采用规范分析以及定量分析与定性分析相结合的研究方法,在研究汇率的传递效应基础上,利用Eviews6.0软件,采用协整检验和因果检验等方法,对人民币汇率改革以来的汇率对物价的传递效应进行实证研究,可以发现在2005年7月到2009年2月这一特定时期内,汇率不是物价变动的原因。     

Long-run consequences of finite exchange rate bubbles

This paper draws on the literature on exchange rate instability and on sunk-cost hysteresis to analyze the long-run effects of exchange rate bubbles. To address the issue, after discussing the implications of sunk-cost hysteresis for aggregate supply, we propose two versions of the Dornbusch (1976) model of exchange rate determination. We modify it so as to allow for endogenous adjustment in productive capacity, with the aggregate investment function being linear with respect to the exchange rate in one version and non-linear in the other. For both versions, we provide solutions for a Blanchard-type bubble developing on the foreign exchange market. We find that, if capacity adjusts non-linearly, such a bubble will affect the steady state of the economy.     

An Assessment of the Currency Board Regime in Bosnia and Herzegovina

This paper describes currency board regime operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina and assesses their performance and sustainability in the context of the economic, political, and institutional environment. To the best of our knowledge, our study seems to be unique in this respect. Based on our analysis, we judge that Bosnia and Herzegovina's currency board regime is well suited and appropriate, given the country's history, its current state, and its future goals. Nevertheless, we believe that the key to the currency board's sustainability, and an eventual accession to the European Union, is a stronger legal and regulatory infrastructure and a more unified political system.     

An input–output model of exchange-rate pass-through

The impact of the exchange rate on price formation is often debated through a mechanism called the exchange-rate pass-through. Studies of the pass-through generally rely on econometric analysis implemented on time series data. This study examines pass-through to the domestic price level through an input–output model. The proposed model is implemented on a sample of countries, and a number of different variables connected to the pass-through are examined. A comparison across countries and sectors highlights the importance of the construction sector in price formation. National income is negatively related to the pass-through. A high dependence on intermediate imports implies higher pass-through. Price level volatility and pass-through are positively related; whereas a country’s monetary policy stance has no apparent effect. The effect of exchange-rate volatility is unclear; it is negative for the real effective exchange rate, the connection is very weak in the case of the nominal exchange rate.     

“WTO能解决汇率争端吗?

本文围绕WTO对汇率问题是否有管辖权、是否有解决汇率争端的规则、WTO是否适合解决汇率争端等几个方面进行了分析,指出汇率问题宜磋商解决,在WTO成员方没有就影响贸易的汇率问题达成约束性纪律之前,现有规则难以解决这一争议。