How much do plant guarantees reduce perceived risk?

Abstract

Consumers do perceive risk in purchase decisions and seek to reduce both uncertainty and probability of loss. Risk also varies across persons and purchasing situations. Retailers promote product guarantees as risk reducers, but the quantitative evidence is lacking. They offer guarantees to help resolve outcomes from post-purchase problems mainly, product performance. We used an online survey to investigate the role of risk mitigation by money-back guarantees (MBGs) on a live product: plants. We obtained online responses from 504?US residents?≥?age 18 years who had made at least one live plant purchase in the six months prior to the study. As MBG length increased, perceived risk (PR) decreased. PR was higher for men than for women and declined as income increased. Subjects with a higher level of product involvement, expertise, delight, repurchase intentions, and regret had a higher level of PR. We conducted separate Chow tests for annual and perennial plants by price and MBG length and found several break points. As price increased from $5 to $10, a 30-d MBG reduced PR for annual plants while the reduction in PR was incrementally decreased for all guarantee lengths when annuals were priced over $20. With perennial plants, the MBG had an increasingly larger effect on reducing PR for each $10 increase in price. Overall, for each day increase in MBG length, we observed a 0.0337 decrease in PR, which meant that a 90-d MBG on a plant would reduce PR by 3%. This quantitative evidence of reduction in PR should encourage the use and communication of MBGs which have the potential to improve purchases, customer retention, and profitability.     

A framework for assessing financial stability?

I worked as a consultant in the Financial Stability Department (FSD) of the Bank of England for several years (2002–2004). In this paper I reflect on issues relating to the work of such an FSD, starting with the difficulty of defining or measuring ‘financial stability’. Stress tests are commonly used, but, for an FSD, should relate to the system as a whole, not just to individual institutions. FSDs need to assess the probability, virulence and speed of occurrence of potential shocks. There is a need to develop appropriate analytical models. The focus on capital adequacy has diverted attention from concern about having sufficient liquidity.     

化学法二氧化氯发生器转化率测定方法的研究

为衡量化学法二氧化氯发生器运行费用,分析发生器产物的成分、计算产率、二氧化氯转化率等性能指标,本文设计研究了化学法二氧化氯发生器的二氧化氯转化率、氯酸钠耗率等的测定方法.采取恒定进口原料溶液的流量,时监测出口吸收水溶液流量和取样分析各组分浓度,以抵消原料在反应器停留时间的影响,对商品化学法复合型二氧化氯发生器在应用现场进行了实际测定.结果显示出口溶液流量波动也会影响个别结果.选择的两个分析方法测定有效氯结果无显著性差异.整体试验结果在可接受范围     

Sequential control of time series by functionals of kernal-weighted empirical processes under local alternatives

Motivated in part by applications in model selection in statistical genetics and sequential monitoring of financial data, we study an empirical process framework for a class of stopping rules which rely on kernel-weighted averages of past data. We are interested in the asymptotic distribution for time series data and an analysis of the joint influence of the smoothing policy and the alternative defining the deviation from the null model (in-control state). We employ a certain type of local alternative which provides meaningful insights. Our results hold true for short memory processes which satisfy a weak mixing condition. By relying on an empirical process framework we obtain both asymptotic laws for the classical fixed sample design and the sequential monitoring design. As a by-product we establish the asymptotic distribution of the Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoother when the regressors do not get dense as the sample size increases.Acknowledgements The author is grateful to two anonymous referees for their constructive comments, which improved the paper. One referee draws my attention to Lifshits paper. The financial support of the Collaborative Research Centre Reduction of Complexity in Multivariate Data Structures (SFB 475) of the German Research Foundation (DFG) is greatly acknowledged.     

On the finite sample behavior of testing whether new is better than used of a specified age

Hollander, Park and Proschan (1986) proposed a test of new is better than used of a specified age. It is based on large sample normality of the test statistic. There is, however, no study in the literature on its actual size for small and moderate sample sizes. To shed some lights on this, the results of a Monte Carlo simulation study as well as two real data examples are reported and these indicate that the test can have a quite liberal size, especially for small to moderate sample sizes. In order to improve on this weakness, a modified test is proposed and studied. It is noticed that this modified test seems to over-correct the original test to an extent that it becomes unduly conservative sometimes. Hence we propose another modification that combines the original test and the modified test turns out to have its size quite close to the nominal level and is therefore preferable to both the original and modified tests.     

Non-convex Technologies and Cost Functions: Definitions,Duality and Nonparametric Tests of Convexity

This contribution is the first systematic attempt to develop a series of nonparametric, deterministic technologies and cost functions without maintaining convexity. Specifically, we introduce returns to scale assumptions into an existing non-convex technology and, dual to these technologies, define non-convex cost functions that are never lower than their convex counterparts. Both non-convex technologies and cost functions (total, ray-average and marginal) are characterized by closed form expressions. Furthermore, a local duality result is established between a local cost function and the input distance function. Finally, nonparametric goodness-of-fit tests for convexity are developed as a first step towards making it a statistically testable hypothesis. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Financial Sector Risk and the Stock Returns: Evidence from Tokyo Stock Exchange Firms

We investigate whether the activity of financial firms creates value and/or risk to the economy within the asset pricing framework. We use stock return data from nonfinancial firms listed in the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The value-weighted index that is solely composed of nonfinancial firms is augmented with the index of the firms from the financial sector, and we estimate multivariate asset pricing model with these two indices. We note that our procedure can simultaneously take into account the cross-holding phenomena among Japanese firms, especially between the financial sector and the nonfinancial sector. Our augmented index model performs well both with cross-sectional Fama and MacBeth regression test and GMM test. Our two index model with additional Fama and French's HML factor can capture cross-sectional variations of the returns of sample portfolios better than the original Fama and French model can, when measured by Hansen and Jagannathan distance measure. We find that this additional new sector variable can be a substitute for Fama and French's size factor, but not related to the bond index return. This variable has similar factor characteristic as money supply growth or the term structure, but the latter variables contain more information than the former. Morever, our financial sector model helps explain the return and risk structure of Japanese firms during the so-called bubble period.     

债务期限结构和区域因素——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文采用参数和非参数检验方法经验检查中国上市公司注册地所在区域因素与公司债务期限结构之间关系。研究发现：（1）不同区域之间的债务期限结构存在系统性差异：（2）区域因素能解释公司债务期限结构3％左右的变异；（3）中部地区的债务期限显著高于东部、西部地区的债务期限；（4）市场化程度高、经济发达的地区具有相对低的债务期限。     

以市场检验推动公共服务型政府建设

20世纪80年代以来,在"新公共管理"运动的推动下,以英国、新西兰、澳大利亚为代表的一些国家普遍实行了"公共服务市场化"改革。这一改革浪潮席卷世界,并逐步发展成为大多数国家转变政府职能的一种主流模式。实践证明,与传统的政府"自给自足"和"垄断供应"模式相比,以市场检验为标志的公共服务改革大大降低了公共服务供给成本,提高了公共服务效率,改善了公共部门运行绩效,并为充分运用市场力量推动政府改革提供了新的机遇和动力。     

促进科技进步的税收政策研究

税收政策对科技进步具有重要影响。我国现行科技税收政策尚有不完善之处,需要根据国家产业政策、科技发展规划和税制改革方向进行适当调整。调整的思路是:扩大增值税抵扣范围;允许工业企业提取研究与开发基金;实行加速折旧或摊销办法;突破区域和内外资企业的限定,对高科技企业实行同一税收政策;对个人科技所得实施税收优惠;等等。