商业银行流动性过剩与区域金融资源配置失衡

本文从区域金融学的角度对我国商业银行流动性变化及其区域差异进行了剖析.研究发现,东部沿海发达地区信贷资金投放量过度,城乡金融资源配置差别太大,区域金融资源配置的失衡导致了全国城市商业银行流动性过剩.文章认为,疏通、引导社会资金流向,改善、优化欠发达地区的金融生态,防范、控制发达地区的金融风险,分步实施我国地区均衡开发战略,这是解决当前全国流动性过剩的根本路径.     

农村金融生态研究:一个新制度经济学的分析框架

农村金融生态问题是金融支农和新农村建设中的焦点话题.如何从理论上解释农村金融生态主体与金融生态环境之间的互动机理是金融生态研究中的盲点.本文试图从新制度经济学视角构建一个理论分析框架,来诠释农村金融生态运行中存在的问题,旨在为改善农村金融生态环境提供理论参考.     

Multimarket trading and liquidity: a transaction data analysis of Canada–US interlistings

We use transaction data for Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) listed stocks to examine the impact on trading costs of the decision to interlist on a US exchange. We measure trading costs using both ‘posted’ bid-ask spreads and ‘effective’ bid-ask spreads that measure actual transaction prices relative to standing bid-ask quotes. After controlling for price level, trade size and trading volume effects, we find that overall posted and effective spreads in the domestic (TSE) market decrease subsequent to the interlisting. However, the decrease in trading costs is concentrated in those TSE stocks that experience a significant shift of total trading volume (TSE and US) to the US exchange after listing. We interpret this result in the context of theories of multimarket trading as a competitive response by TSE market makers to the additional presence of US market makers.     

Regional trade and food security in SADC

A number of pertinent questions on regional trade and food security in southern Africa is addressed in this paper, namely: Should a country go it alone or should it belong to a regional trade bloc? Within the SADC region, should countries be content to be cereal importers? How can free trade be phased in? How can intra-SADC trade be expanded? Potentially sensitive agricultural products are listed and the sensitivity in grain milling and cereals is discussed in detail. The major conclusion is that trade in the region can contribute substantially to provide improved food security. There is also considerable scope for greater intra-regional trade in grain and other food products, and for greater cross-border investment in agriculture and agro-industry.     

从我国国民经济“软着陆”看金融宏观调控的作用

国民经济的高速发展往往伴随着高通货膨胀,既保持经济的适度增长,又维持较低的通货膨胀,这是许多国家都想达到而又难以达到的理想境界。本文从我国近几年的经济发展情况出发,论述了金融宏观调控政策的内容、目标及手段,介绍了我国进行宏观调控的措施和方法,说明了金融宏观调控政策在国民经济"软着陆"中的作用。     

An empirical comparison of bankruptcy models

Four types of bankruptcy prediction models based on financial statement ratios, cash flows, stock returns, and return standard deviations are compared. Based on a sample of bankruptcies from 1980 to 1991, results indicate that no existing model of bankruptcy adequately captures the data. During the last fiscal year preceding bankruptcy, none of the individual models may be excluded without a loss in explanatory power. If considered in isolation, the cash flow model discriminates most consistently two to three years before bankruptcy. By comparison, the ratio model is the best single model during the year immediately preceding bankruptcy. Quasi-jack-knifing procedures suggest that none of the models can reliably predict bankruptcy more than two years in advance.     

我国金融业“营改增”的现实考量和路径选择

我国金融业税负偏高、重复课税比较严重，不利于金融企业专业化分工协助和国际竞争力提高，也影响了增值税抵扣环节的完整性。金融业“营改增”是规范金融业流转税制的必然选择，可以避免货物和其他劳务重复课税，是解决税负不公、促进金融业发展的内在要求。金融业“营改增”应该合理确定应税项目和税基，合理确定税率和课税时点，合理确定税收收入的划分和归属。     

Business Incubators in China: A Financial Services Perspective

The business incubation industry in China has been booming since the mid-1990s. However, the lack of a well-developed financial services sector has become a major bottleneck to the growth of the industry. Based on our visits to 12 Chinese business incubators around the country and interviews with their executives, we present our perspective on the state of the incubator industry in China with special emphasis on incubators' financial services for their incubatees.     

金融生态平衡与我国的金融自由化模式分析

政府与市场的矛盾仍然是造成我国金融压抑的主要原因,转变金融自由化模式意义重大。本文从金融生态平衡的视角,理论分析了我国金融自由化改革的一般模式及其作用机制,研究表明金融生态平衡模式能够通过政府行为内生化、市场机制基础化和提供地位判断标准三个途径有效地协调政府行为和市场效率的矛盾,提高金融结构秩序合理性、金融自调节能力柔韧性和金融与经济的匹配性,是推动我国金融自由化改革的有效模式。     

Risk reporting quality: implications of academic research for financial reporting policy

In this paper, I survey empirical research on the relevance of firms’ financial report information for the evaluation of their risk. I recommend that financial reporting policymakers require or encourage firms to enhance their risk reporting quality in four ways. First, firms should report comprehensive income statements that: (1) use fair value or a similarly information-rich accounting measurement attribute and (2) separate the components of comprehensive income that are primarily driven by variation in cash flows from those that are primarily driven by variation in costs of capital. Such comprehensive income statements would provide users of financial reports with the flexibility to calculate alternative summary accounting numbers and to perform different types of risk assessment analyses. Second, firms should conduct and disclose the results of back-tests of prior significant accrual estimates, indicating any identified trends in and drivers of revisions to those estimates, and describing the effects of those revisions on current or future summary accounting numbers. Third, firms should aggregate and present risk disclosures in tabular or other well-structured formats that promote the usability of the information. Identifying existing best disclosure practices and encouraging new best practices are the most natural way to do this. Fourth, for model-dependent risk disclosures, firms should disclose the primary historical and forward-looking attributes of the models and their implementation in practice, sensitivity of the model outputs, and benchmarking of the models to standard portfolios of exposures.