Where Should the Elderly Live and Who Should Pay for Their Care?*

We consider a model with a population consisting of earners and retired persons; elderly care is publicly provided. There is one big city, where congestion effects and agglomeration forces are at work, and a number of small villages. We show how the externalities related to population mobility lead to an inefficient spatial distribution of earners and retirees, and we characterize the second‐best solution. Decentralization of this solution in a fiscal federalism structure requires the use of taxes and subsidies proportional to the number of earners and retired persons living in the city and the villages.     

The Quantitative Law of Network Information Growth

Based on the assumptions of ＂information transfer＂ and ＂information creation＂, this paper educes the multiplied growth mechanism of network information： that the gross quantity of network information （Im） is about n times as much as the quantity of real network information （Ir）. According to this theoretical model, we give a uniform explanation to all kinds of information growth models in existence, and put forward some proposals, such as ＂forbidding information transfer＂ and ＂building up the central information base＂, to control the repeated information flooding on the network and facilitate the full use of network information.     

When and why do countries break their national fiscal rules?

This paper identifies determinants of compliance with various types of national numerical fiscal rules. Based on 51 fiscal rules in force in EU member states from 1995 to 2015, the analysis identifies determinants among specific rule characteristics and their fiscal frameworks, as well as their political, (socio-)economic and supranational environments. While the average compliance across all rules and countries is around 50%, compliance with rules constraining stock (rather than flow) variables, set out in coalitional agreements, as well as rules covering larger parts of general government finances is significantly higher. Furthermore, independent monitoring and enforcement bodies (issuing real-time alerts) turn out to be significantly associated with a higher probability of compliance. Several theories of the deficit bias of governments due to government fragmentation, decentralization and political budget cycles are also significant with regards to compliance with fiscal rules. However, neither the economic environment or business cycle, nor forecast errors (except for an unexpectedly higher primary balance) on average seem to play a significant role.     

Under threat: Rules-based fiscal policy and how to preserve it

Rules-based fiscal policy is under threat. Over the last two decades, it proved frustratingly complicated to strike the right balance between three essential properties of sound fiscal policy rules: simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Simplicity has been sacrificed to ensure that more contingent (i.e. flexible) rules remained enforceable. The resulting arrangements have failed to adequately guide fiscal policy, undermining formal compliance, and ultimately, popular and political support for rules. To mitigate the risk that countries abandon rules-based policymaking, we suggest downplaying enforceability—i.e. the role of formal sanctions through enforcement—and enhancing the reputational costs of breaching rules. At the limit, the rule could consist of a simple quantitative benchmark for a key fiscal indicator. To boost reputational effects, independent fiscal councils should focus on debunking the “fiscal alchemy,” clearing the public debate from partisan smokescreens, and fostering popular support for sound fiscal policies.     

农村教育发展的财政保障

长期以来农村教育的特征，说明教育经费短缺一直是农村教育发展的突出矛盾。要对农村教育实施财政保障，须以整顿农村教师队伍为前提，在教育观念、国民经济结构、教育结构、政府预算结构及财政体制等五个方面作战略性调整，同时制止对学生的乱收费。     

汇率波动与FDI区位分布——基于辖区间财政竞争视角的研究

为了获取相对的竞争优势,辖区政府会通过策略性财政政策影响砌的区位分布.文章利用中国省级面板数据,实证分析人民币汇率波动通过改变辖区政府的财政竞争策略,从而影响FI)I区位分布的实际效应.研究表明,人民币汇率升值会弱化FDI流入量与辖区政府财政支出竞争程度两者的正向关系,此时依靠财政支出结构偏向基本建设的竞争策略将收效甚微.     

论支持农业保险发展的财政政策

农业保险是为农业生产者在从事农业生产过程中,对遭受自然灾害和意外事故所造成的经济损失提供保障的一种保险。它被视作推动现代农业,确保农业可持续发展的关键因素。发展农业保险不仅能促进农业发展和农业产品供给,还能减少农民收入波动,增进农民福利。近年来,农业保险越来越引起我国学术界和政府的高度重视,我国财政政策对于农业保险的支持的传统做法正面临改革创新的历史机遇。     

结构式凯恩斯乘数理论与积极财政政策优化——基于消费矩阵的实证研究

2007年以来中国经济发展的外部环境急剧恶化,如何通过积极财政政策扩大内需成为当前最为关键的问题.国内外的经验和教训表明,积极财政政策发挥效应是有条件的,为了启动处于衰退中的经济,政府不仅需要采取扩张性的政策干预经济,而且由于各部门的乘数效应不同,政府更需要采取结构性的干预政策,通过对不同产业部门的不同支出以改进财政政策效率.文章回顾了国内外在结构式凯恩斯乘数理论领域的研究进展情况,认为结构式乘数的基础研究与应用实践,将为中国政府应对外部冲击和经济衰退风险提供更加科学的分析视角与更加丰富的决策手段.     

财政分权对地方公共投资的长期和短期影响效应研究——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

本文以1985—2008年我国25个省域面板数据为对象,采用面板单位根及协整检验等计量经济学方法,得出以下结论:我国各省域及省以下财政分权与地方公共投资之间存在长期且相互影响的内在作用机制,两者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。本文通过面板误差修正模型(PVECM)进一步得出结论:财政分权与地方公共投资的长期均衡具有显著的短期修正效应。     

教育均衡发展的财政职责视角分析

财政在教育均衡发展中承担着主要职责,我国教育发展中存在不均衡的问题,教育财政体制不完善、财政转移支付制度不规范是其中重要的原因。为促进教育均衡发展,应增加落后地区财政收入、进一步完善教育财政体制、规范财政转移支付制度。