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121.
Jesús Crespo?Cuaresma "mailto:jesus.crespo-cuaresma@univie.ac.at " title= "jesus.crespo-cuaresma@univie.ac.at " itemprop= "email " data-track= "click " data-track-action= "Email author " data-track-label= " ">Email author Jaroslava?Hlouskova 《Empirical Economics》2004,29(4):787-801
This article compares the accuracy of vector autoregressive (VAR), restricted vector autoregressive (RVAR), Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR), vector error correction (VEC) and Bayesian vector error correction (BVEC) models in forecasting the exchange rates for five Central and Eastern European currencies (Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Slovak Koruna and Slovenian Tolar) against the Euro and the US dollar. Among the specifications composing this battery of multivariate time series models, those with the smallest prediction error still fail to reject the test of equality of forecasting accuracy against the random walk model in short-term predictions, with the exception of the Slovenian Tolar/Euro exchange rate.First version received: October 2002/Final version received: September 2003The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees and the participants in the workshop Monetary and Exchange Rate Strategies Related to the Current European Unions Enlargement Processes, held in Leuven in September 2000, for very helpful comments. 相似文献
122.
Irineu de Carvalho Filho 《The German Economic Review》2015,16(4):439-463
During episodes of increased global risk aversion, or risk‐off episodes, safe haven currencies such as the Swiss franc tend to appreciate. The immediate impact of a risk‐off shock is an increase in net private inflows to Switzerland, mostly driven by a reduction in Swiss residents’ net purchases of foreign debt securities and reduced foreign exposure by Swiss banks. Given that the bulk of capital movements related to risk‐off episodes is driven by decisions of Swiss residents, capital flow management policies that discriminate based on the residency of the investor (capital controls) are not likely to be effective at reducing the impact of risk‐off episodes. However, prudential policies that limit leveraging or foreign exposure by Swiss banks may diminish the volatility of capital flows during risk‐off episodes. 相似文献
123.
Hye Young You 《Economics & Politics》2023,35(2):445-469
How do interest groups decide which member of Congress to target when decisions are made collectively? Do lobbying strategies change as legislation advances? Answering these questions is challenging due to a lack of systematic observations of lobbying contacts. I answer these questions using a novel data set constructed from reports submitted by lobbyists on behalf of South Korea regarding its free trade agreement with the United States for 10 years. I show that a diverse set of politicians are contacted but the timing, intensity, and strategy of lobbying contacts vary by politicians' institutional positions as well as their predisposed preferences for free trade. 相似文献
124.
Ewa Szymanik 《中国经济评论(英文版)》2014,(6):347-355
The article presents the situation in Latvia ahead of the country's adoption of the euro by offering an analysis of the extent to which the country is prepared for the move and of general economic difficulties as well as indicating possible threats to its future development. The article talks about difficulties caused by the great unemployment connected with the specific economy of the country, political problems of the post-socialistic multinational country and steps done towards the fulfilling of all the convergence criteria. Its aim is to present the moments around the change of the currency which is done by the material's analysis because there are not enough statistical data for the mathematical analysis. It can be concluded that the adoption of the euro will probably be beneficial in the long run for Latvia's economy. The conclusions may be done by comparison with the situation of Estonia and its foreign trade with Poland which is shown in the article because there are a lot of similarities between the two Baltic countries. 相似文献
125.
解决资本市场与货币市场的不平衡发展是中国实行金融改革的主要动因之一,随着大力发展资本市场的中央文件陆续提出,中国资本市场改革进展顺利,2005年7月人民币汇改后,资本市场也随之进入发展新阶段。过了2006年中国加入WTO承诺——对外开放金融业即将兑现,此前出现的新机遇和新问题亟待我们去分析解决,以积极应对对外开放对我国金融业带来的冲击并把握金融业开放给我们带来的契机。 相似文献
126.
This paper aims at explaining why the CFA countries have successfully maintained a currency union for several decades, despite failing to meet many of optimum currency area criteria. We suggest that the CFA zone, while not optimal, has been at least sustainable. We test this sustainability hypothesis by relying on the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. In particular, we assess and compare the convergence process of real exchange rates towards equilibrium for the CFA zone countries and a sample of other sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Our findings evidence that internal and external balances have been fostered and adjustments facilitated in the CFA zone as a whole—compared to other SSA countries—as well as in each of its member countries. 相似文献
127.
This article uses a microstructure approach to analyse the effectiveness of capital controls introduced in Brazil to counter an appreciation of the Real. Based on a rich data set from the Brazilian foreign exchange market, we estimate a reduced-form VAR to characterize the interaction of the central bank, financial and commercial customers in times of regulatory policy measures. We find that capital controls change market participants’ behaviour, and that central bank interventions elicit a significant response in financial order flow. Referring to the source of order flow, we find no direct price impact by financial flows and thus no evidence that the appreciation of the Real is driven by financial customers’ activity. Instead, commercial customers seem to be a primary driver of the Real within our model. 相似文献
128.
国际直接投资地域结构的时空差异性对忽视东道国因素的传统国际投资理论提出了挑战。文章研究了东道国因素对国际生产资本地域运动的影响,提出了国际直接投资是东道国因素与投资主体三优势综合作用的结果,东道国环境、体制、政策系统的状态特征决定了东道国外资特征等观点,并实证研究了中国改革开放进程与外商对华投资规模和结构的内在互动性。 相似文献
129.
胡钧教授多年来一直坚持和宣传的按劳分配中的"等量劳动互换"是社会主义经济的本质关系,与等价交换相对立,从而排斥商品交换关系的观点,不能成立。他的这一理论观点,与马克思的观点相对立。马克思将按劳分配中的等量劳动交换称之为与商品等价交换是同一原则的"资产阶级权利",是与"旧社会痕迹"相联系的"弊病"。这一观点也与邓小平的社会主义本质论相悖离。胡教授用社会主义"等量劳动互换"本质论,否定我国实质的商品价值关系的存在,断言马、恩关于社会主义制度下商品关系会消亡的科学真理在我国已成为现实。这不符合我国的实际情况。胡教授宣称他的这一理论观点得到党和学界的"极大重视"和认同,是"最突出的创新性见解"和"重要学术贡献",并为邓小平的社会主义市场经济理论和我国的改革目标"提供了理论铺垫"、"做了理论上的准备",也不符合事实。 相似文献
130.
日元开启国际化的征程已30年之久,有关人民币国际化的问题也引起越来越多的关注。当今,中国无论在经济实力、国际贸易水平,还是金融市场的开放等方面都与昔日日本提出"日元国际化"时的背景颇为相似,因此,分析日元国际化的现状,总结其经验教训,对推动当今人民币国际化具有极为重要的镜鉴意义。 相似文献