中国外汇储备增长与流动性过剩关系的实证分析

随着中国经济的快速发展和对外开放程度的不断加深,中国外汇储备的规模呈现急剧攀升的态势,与此同时,中国的通胀也长期走高,稳定物价已经成为当务之急。那么两者究竟有无内在联系?本文利用主流的计量经济学研究方法对中国2004Q1-2011Q4间的外汇储备和货币供应量的时间序列数据进行了实证分析。结果显示,二者确实存在稳定的协整关系,而且由格兰杰因果关系检验可知,外汇储备规模的急剧扩大是造成中国目前流动性过剩的重要原因。因而,本文最后就如何化解当前流动性过剩的现状从外汇储备方面提出了简要的政策建议,即遏制外汇储备失控增长,提高外汇储备管理水平,优化外汇储备结构和币种。     

关于发展陕西旅游业的思考

陕西旅游资源富集 ,文化内涵丰富 ,是我国旅游业起步较早的省份之一。但近年来由于投资、产品开发、宏观规划、宣传推介等方面做得不够 ,使旅游经济各相关指标与国内其他省市相比较有逐年落后的趋势。随着旅游市场需求层次的不断提升 ,陕西应根据市场导向 ,加大投资和宏观规划 ,产品创新及宣传推介工作的力度 ,真正变旅游资源大省为旅游经济大省。     

加入WTO后我国外贸出口环境分析

我国出口受入世后规则和环境变化影响很大 ,对我国入世后出口环境进行总体分析和评估是必要的。从长远看 ,加入 WTO使我国出口环境总体上得到改善 ,从近期看 ,入世对我国出口环境的影响更多的是冲击和挑战 ,这要求国内企业尽快熟悉和掌握 WTO的规则和精神。     

河北省利用外资发展现代农业研究

本文分析了河北省现代农业发展与利用外资的现状,探讨了河北省农业利用外资质量差的原因,在此基础上了提出了利用外资发展现代农业的对策:如确定利用外资在发展河北省现代农业中的地位。加快改善农业投资环境;坚持多元化的利用外资方针,提高农业利用外资的质量和水平;同时在利用外资时要坚持可持续发展的原则。     

Developing global champions: Why national oil companies expand abroad

National oil companies (NOCs) have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign oil and gas assets. Why have some governments increased their NOC outward investments, while others have not? I argue that domestic structures can influence a government's calculus that potential benefits, such as added revenues and fuel supply, outweigh potential costs, such as information asymmetries and inefficiencies associated with NOCs. Nationally, partisan competition limits democratic tolerance for failures by NOCs. Bureaucratically, overlapping authority in energy policy undermines coherent NOC governance. Based on investments by NOCs hailing from 79 countries, 2000–2013, I find robust evidence for the national hypothesis.     

基于产业需求的外汇储备实物资产配置

外汇储备管理应突破仅追求投资收益的限制,建立为产业对资源需求提供支持的战略思想.为了在投资收益性、管理流动性和产业需求之间寻得平衡,文章提出基于产业需求的外汇储备实物资产配置目标与方案,通过期货投资,给出了实物资产的投资结构.通过追踪适应中国产业需求发展的商品期货价格指数,不仅可以增加战略储备、为产业发展提供支持,而且可以分散化风险、获得很好的投资收益,从而为外汇投资提供了投资依据.     

The sources of momentum in international government bond returns

This study aims to offer a new explanation for the momentum effect in international government bonds. Using cross-sectional and time-series tests, we examine a sample of bonds from 22 countries for the years 1980 through 2018. We document significant momentum profits that are not attributable to bond-specific risk factors, such as volatility or credit risk. The global bond momentum is driven by the returns on underlying foreign exchange rates. Controlling for currency movements fully explains the abnormal returns on momentum strategies in international government bonds. The results are robust to many considerations including alternative sorting periods, portfolio construction methods, as well as subperiod and subsample analysis.     

The Impacts of Financial Integration on the Linkages Between Monetary Independence and Foreign Exchange Reserves

This paper investigates the short-run and long-run effects of financial integration on the dynamics between monetary independence and foreign exchange reserves using a GMM system estimation involving two-year non-overlapping average data (2000-2011) from 114 countries. The results indicate that the effect of foreign exchange reserves on the monetary independence is intensified by the level of financial integration. This suggests a positive spill over effect from the financial integration to the monetary policy independence. Besides, a positive implication of financial integration on monetary independence could be established when the foreign exchange reserves is at the maximum level. In addition, the comparisons between the mean of foreign exchange reserves and the threshold levels of foreign exchange reserves that neutralise the impact of financial integration indicate that on average, the foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to offset the effect of financial integration. A stable exchange rate will undermine the positive impact of foreign exchange reserves on monetary independence. Finally, the long-run and short-run impacts occur in the same direction. This paper ends with some policy implications and suggestions for future research.     

Does Aid Effectiveness Differ per Political Ideologies?

Despite the extensive empirical literature on aid effectiveness, existing studies have not addressed directly how political ideology affects the use of foreign aid in the recipient country. This study, therefore, uses a unique dataset of 12 democratic countries in Africa to investigate the impact of political ideologies on aid effectiveness. Our results indicate that each political party uses aid differently in peruse of their political, ideological orientation. Further analyses suggest that rightist capitalist parties are likely to use aid to improve the private sector environment. Leftist socialist on the other hand, use aid effectively on pro-poor projects such as short-term poverty reduction, mass education and health services. Our additional analysis on the lines of colonialisation shows that the difference in the use of aid by political parties is much stronger in French colonies than Britain colonies. The study provides insight on how the recipient government are likely to use foreign aid.     

论我国对外贸易中的环境成本内部化

在我国对外贸易迅速发展的同时,资源浪费、生态环境受到污染的现象也日益严峻。环境成本内部化理论的提出,为解决国际贸易中的环境污染问题指明了一条道路。环境成本内部化使出口企业的生产成本增加,必然影响我国外贸出口。各有关方面应采取积极有效的措施,应对环境成本内部化,实现贸易与环境的协调发展。