Where have all the flowers gone? Forecasting green trends in the automobile industry with a choice-based conjoint adoption model

With rising gas prices, global warming, and green thinking, all-electric vehicles are currently considered the automobile technology of the future. However, besides their advantages electric drive trains also exhibit several disadvantages. Moreover, history shows several failed attempts to establish electric vehicles. Thus, a reliable forecasting model is needed that predicts if the current trend is sustainable. We develop and empirically test a choice-based conjoint adoption model that uses individual-level preferences as a basis for prediction. Predictions are mapped to the time of the next planned purchase in order to establish the adoption process. The model extends existing research in several ways. First, no prior information, e.g., historical market data or a functional form of the adoption process, has to be integrated. Second, the model allows dynamic modifications of product specifications or competition at different points in time. Third, a no-choice option can be integrated so that a technology switch is not forced by the model itself and switching costs can be considered. The empirical results reveal different critical factors for the adoption of all-electric vehicles, such as purchase price, range, timing of the market entry, or environmental evolution, which could lead to a solid base of consumers preferring this option.     

The interaction effect of strategic orientations on new product performance in the high-tech industry: A nonlinear model

Innovation and market orientation are two strategic orientations or business philosophies that can guide a company in its business activities. Although the interaction effect of these two strategic orientations is conceptually recognized as a critical factor for new product's success, empirical results are mixed. This paper examines this issue in terms of innovation orientation, two types of market orientations (responsive and proactive), and new product performance. Based on a sample of 107 high-tech firms, the results of this study show that the interaction between innovation orientation and two types of market orientation yields different patterns of nonlinear responses for new product performance. Specifically, new product performance, when derived from the interaction between innovation orientation and responsive market orientation, is in the form of an inverted U, i.e., the interaction effect is contributory to firm performance until an optimal level is reached, and then the effect becomes detrimental thereafter. However, new product performance derived from innovation orientation and proactive market orientation is in the form of a U, i.e., the interaction effect is detrimental to firm performance until a threshold level is reached and then the effect becomes contributory thereafter. The different patterns of new product performance indicate that the costs and organizational learning effects of these two strategic orientation interactions are dissimilar. The paper concludes with a discussion of theoretical and practical implications of these findings.     

我国畜产品价格波动分析——基于ARCH类模型

运用ARCH类模型对我国主要畜产品的价格波动率进行了分析。结果表明:牛肉、羊肉和鸡肉的价格波动具有显著的波动积聚性,鸡蛋价格波动没有显著的异方差效应;除牛肉市场外,羊肉和鸡肉市场不具有高风险、高回报的特征;猪肉、牛肉、羊肉和鸡肉的价格波动没有非对称性。认为应在畜产品市场出现大的价格波动时及时采取平抑措施,且政府需规范畜产品市场秩序、完善畜产品市场制度。     

中美汽车产业内贸易实证分析

产业内贸易水平越来越成为一国对外贸易竞争力及产业国际竞争力的一项重要指标。近年来,尽管中美汽车贸易发展迅速,但产业内贸易水平却较低。根据联合国商品贸易数据库数据,估算中美汽车产业内贸易指数,考察中美汽车产业内贸易的发展程度,剖析中美汽车产业内贸易的特征。研究得出:中国的产业内贸易总额超过产业间贸易,但产业内贸易水平仍低于美国;中美汽车产业内贸易产品的平均出口单价较低,平均进口单价较高,中国政府应引导汽车企业增大技术投入、引进国际领先技术、加强技术创新与产品研发。     

Managing customer experiences in online product communities

Many companies have established online product communities or forums as a vehicle to extend product support services to their customers. Customers' interactions in such online forums with peer customers and vendor representatives resolve their product-related queries as well as inform on their product purchase decisions. Despite the significance of such interactions, there has been limited theoretical attention so far on how companies can manage customer experiences in online product communities. Drawing on theories and concepts from diverse areas including computer-mediated communication, consumer psychology, and online communities, this study proposes a four dimensional construct - Online Community Experience (OCE) - to capture customer experiences in such online product communities, and examines its impact on customer attitudes regarding the product, the company, and the quality of service. Data collected from customers in online product forums offered by four companies is used to test the study hypotheses. Implications for research on online consumer behavior and marketing are discussed.     

水产品加工业供应链风险及其控制策略

根据对文献的研究成果,结合对水产品加工业的深入调研分析,本文着重从供应、物流、财务、信息、需求、环境等方面对水产品加工业供应链风险进行剖析。供应链中各种风险因素之间并非独立存在,而是相互影响、互为因果。因此,在明确水产业供应链每种风险产生根源及其变动规律的基础上,提出适宜的风险控制策略,以期规避风险,确保水产业供应链整体安全高效运行。     

少数民族地区生态文明建设研究

工业社会以"大量生产、大量消费、大量废弃"为基本特征的工业文明时期,现代工业体系在创造出空前的物质财富和社会繁荣的同时,也不断地消耗、破坏着自然资源和人类的生存环境。我国少数民族群众整体和谐的自然观、敬畏生命的平等观以及循环再生的生产观等生态伦理思想与生态文明的本质是一致的,在生态文明建设中可发挥积极的作用。本文探讨了少数民族地区生态文明建设对策,包括传承少数民族生态伦理文化,发挥民族区域自治的政治优势、完善生态保护的法律法规,培养"生态公民"、提倡"绿色消费"以及发展循环生态产业和低碳产业为主导的特色经济等。     

略论我国产品责任主体的范围

产品责任主体是因产品存在缺陷而致他人损害应承担赔偿责任的人。生产者和销售者是我国法律明文规定的产品责任主体,它们以无过错责任为归责事由。从更好地保护消费者合法权益,维护社会经济秩序出发,原材料和零部件或半成品提供者、准生产者、进口者应归属于生产者范畴,运输者、仓储者等第三人在符合相应条件时,应承担产品侵权责任。     

可再生能源绿色证书政策的理论研究

可再生能源发电具有的正外部性等特点,需要政府相关机构对其进行价格管制,以保证和促进可再生能源电力的发展。目前主要的管制方法有固定电价政策、竞价上网政策以及可交易的绿色证书政策等。本文从理论的角度对绿色证书政策进行研究,分析了可再生能源发电市场和绿色证书市场的本质和价格的决定问题,阐述了绿色证书政策对资源配置的促进作用以及对绿色证书政策的制约和影响因素。