Ramsey policies in a small open economy with sticky prices and capital

This paper analyzes jointly optimal fiscal and monetary policies in a small open economy with capital and sticky prices. We allow for trade in consumption goods under perfect international risk-sharing. We consider balanced-budget fiscal policies where authorities use distortionary taxes on labor and capital together with monetary policy using the nominal interest rate. First, as long as a symmetric equilibrium is considered, the steady state in an open economy is isomorphic to that of a closed economy. Second, sticky prices’ allocations are almost indistinguishable from flexible prices allocations both in open and closed economies. Third, the open economy dimension delivers results that are qualitatively similar to those of a closed economy but with significant quantitative changes. Tax rates are both more volatile and more persistent to undo the distortions implied by terms of trade fluctuations.     

Quantitative easing and the loan to collateral value ratio

We study optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model at the zero bound interest rate where households use cash alongside house equity borrowing to conduct transactions. The amount of borrowing is limited by a collateral constraint. When either the loan to value ratio declines or house prices fall, we observe a decrease in the money multiplier. We argue that the central bank should respond to the fall in the money multiplier and therefore to the reduction in house prices or the loan to collateral value ratio. We also find that optimal monetary policy generates a large and persistent fall in the money multiplier in response to the drop in the loan to collateral value ratio.     

现行政策下商业地产的发展趋势

一、现行宏观政策对商业地产的影响 从2004年起,鉴于政策导向,商业地产开发变得炙热起来。由于商业地产的利润比住宅开发要平均高出5％N10％,吸引了越来越多的投资者转向商业地产的开发。2005年1月1日开始,跨国零售商已开始在中国的全方位扩张。外资的到来推动国内商业市场发展,为商业地产带来巨大商机。2006年至2008...     

我国保障性住房体系建设现状

随着城市住房向市场化和商品化迅猛推进,部分城市房价也随之一路飙升,中低收入群体无力购房的状况日益突出,并逐渐成了严重的社会问题之一,保障性住房的建设,成了当下政府和民众关注的热点。通过分析我国保障性住房建设情况及存在的问题,本文提出一些针对性的建议。     

我国棉花期货价格的影响因素

棉花是除了粮食之外的第二大宗农产品,它对于促进农业的稳定发展和国家经济的安全具有极其重要的作用。然而,近年来棉花价格波动相当频繁,其波动原因也随之成为了社会的关注焦点。文章从供求因素、汇率因素、政策法规、投机因素等方面分析棉花期货价格波动的原因,从而提出相关对策建议。     

住房公积金导致了不平等吗——来自中国家庭金融调查的证据

住房公积金制度作为一项政策性住房金融制度,能够缓解家庭购房金融约束、稳定住房金融市场,成为实现"房住不炒"的重要政策工具。本文以2015年实施的住房公积金信贷宽松政策作为外生冲击,从财富效应的角度研究了住房公积金制度对不同家庭购房行为的影响。利用双重差分的实证研究方法,本文发现目前住房公积金主要促进了缴存家庭的多套房需求,加大了缴存家庭与非缴存家庭的住房财富差距。住房信贷政策的针对性与多样性急需提升。     

媒体情绪与房价波动

本文使用2000—2015年中国112个大中城市媒体报道和房价月度指数研究了媒体异质性对房价波动的影响。研究发现,纸媒情绪对房价波动的影响大于网媒情绪,中央媒体情绪对房价波动的影响大于地方媒体情绪,明星微博情绪对房价波动的影响大于普通微博情绪,媒体语气确定性和报道篇幅对房价波动有正影响,明星城市媒体情绪较非明星城市更易引起房价波动。据此,为防范非理性房价波动,应加强对不同媒体报道的监管。     

Quantile serial dependence in crude oil markets: evidence from improved quantilogram analysis with quantile wild bootstrapping

We examine the quantile serial dependence in crude oil prices based on the Linton and Whang’s quantile-based portmanteau test which we improved by means of quantile wild bootstrapping (QWB). Through Monte Carlo simulation, we find that the quantile wild bootstrap-based portmanteau test performs better than the bound testing procedure suggested by Linton and Whang. We apply the improved test to examine the efficiency of two crude oil markets – WTI and Brent. We also examine if the dependence is stable via rolling sample tests. Our results show that both WTI and Brent are serially dependent in all, except the median quantiles. These findings suggest that it may be misleading to examine the efficiency of crude oil markets in terms of mean (or median) returns only. These crude oil markets are relatively more serially dependent in non-median ranges.     

Deleveraging in a Highly Indebted Property Market: Who does it and are there Implications for Household Consumption?

A distinguishing feature of the period preceding the 2007/2008 financial crisis was the sizeable increase in private sector debt observed across many countries. A key component of household liabilities is mortgage debt and with many countries experiencing persistent increases in house prices from the mid‐1990s, a marked increase in this aspect of household leverage was observed. While aggregate statistics across countries confirm reductions in personal debt levels in recent years, relatively few sources of micro data are available to examine the nature of the deleveraging process at the household level. In this paper, using a unique dataset, we examine deleveraging amongst a representative sample of mortgaged Irish households. We identify the characteristics of households engaged in deleveraging and find that it is those households who can afford to deleverage who do. Furthermore we find some tentative evidence to suggest that the decision to deleverage has negative implications for household consumption.     

北京市房地产价格影响因素分析及限购政策绩效评估

随着经济的高速发展,城市的房价也呈现出急剧攀升的态势,脱离了正常的价格波动轨道,大大增加了城市居民的生活成本。以首都北京为例,房价的上升幅度远远超过预期。在经济理论的基础上,运用近几年北京房地产行业的统计数据建立回归模型,可以对影响北京房价的因素进行分析,并且可以对北京市政府2011年2月出台的＂京八条＂限购政策进行绩效评估。