北京市生态文明建设评价研究

生态文明建设是北京市社会经济发展的重要战略方向。通过专家咨询法,结合区域现状,建立了适用于北京市的生态文明建设水平评价指标体系,指标体系包含生态环境、生态经济、生态行为、生态安全、生态文化和生态社会六个方面。对北京市的生态文明建设水平进行了评价,并分析了其时间动态趋势。结果表明,北京市生态文明建设水平在2004年到2008年间呈稳步上升的趋势,其中生态环境、生态经济和生态安全的水平提高显著,而生态行为、生态文化和生态社会水平出现不同程度的起伏。北京市2007年以前处于生态文明建设的准备阶段,到2008年已经接近生态文明建设的中级阶段。此外,分析了北京市生态文明建设水平变化的影响因素,并提出了推进北京市生态文明建设的途径。     

基于希腊主权债务危机的危机预警研究——兼对社会保障支出比重的定量分析

为了研究债务危机的成因及其预警机制,本文在对希腊主权债务危机演变进行描述性分析的基础上,建立了债务危机预警的Logistic模型.通过SPSS18.0统计软件分析,我们发现了影响债务危机发生的主要指标,包括:一般政府净贷款占GDP比率、国际收支占GDP比率以及社会保障支出占GDP比率、总储蓄规模占GDP比率以及通货膨胀率.其中,所选取的欧洲国家的社会保障支出占GDP的比重约为25％,对于债务危机的爆发的影响系数高达0.620.结合我国的经济形势与社会保障发展现状,本文了提出相关的政策建议.     

小兴安岭森林生态区位重要性评价研究

根据《生态功能区划技术暂行规程》和《关于黑龙江省生态功能区划编制说明》,创新性地构建以生态环境现状、生态环境敏感性、生态系统服务功能重要性为一级指标的森林生态区位重要性评价体系,并且对小兴安岭地区进行了评价,得到小兴安岭中部地区、北部地区、西北部地区、南部地区的森林生态区位重要性分别是62.23、60.19、57.95和54.14,说明小兴安岭中部地区的森林比其他地区的森林有较高的生态区位重要性,建议在投入森林建设资金时,应对森林生态区位重要性较高的地区倾斜,以利于推进小兴安岭森林的可持续发展战略。     

市场择时理论的中国适用性--基于1998～2003年上市公司的实证分析

自2002年Baker和Murgler明确提出市场择时理论以来,传统资本结构理论的解释力度受到一定程度的质疑,国外学者围绕这一新兴的资本结构理论展开激烈的争论.文章运用1998年1月1日～2003年12月31日间中国沪深两市IPO公司财务数据试图第一次较为全面地检验市场择时理论在中国的适用性.实证结果表明在样本期内中国上市公司确实存在着股票融资和债务融资的市场择时行为;债务融资的市场择时行为并不显著影响中国上市公司的资本结构,而股票融资的市场择时行为短期内显著影响公司的资本结构;股票融资的市场择时行为不具有持久影响资本结构的效应,总的说来,市场择时理论并不适用于中国的上市公司.     

基于状态空间法的福建省各市环境承载力比较分析

文章首先建立完整的环境承载力评价指标体系,然后运用状态空间法对福建省各市的环境承载力状况进行了计算。通过分析计算结果,发现福建省各市压力类指标普遍过高,而承压类指标普遍不足,在未来的经济社会发展中将会逐渐遇到较大的环境制约,并提出了相应的发展建议。     

以平衡计分卡为基础构建商业银行业绩评价的非财务指标

随着国内商业银行之间以及与外资银行的竞争日益加剧,我国商业银行原有的业绩评价体系已经不适应新的形势.平衡计分卡认为,业绩评价应以顾客、内部经营及学习与创新等非财务指标来补充财务指标,并针对各个方面的业绩目标,设计出相应的计量指标,以便系统、全面、迅速地反映企业的整体运营情况,为企业管理服务.本文以平衡计分卡为基础,分析了我国商业银行业绩评价体系的发展沿革及现状,指出了我国商业银行业绩评价注重财务评价而忽视非财务评价的问题,借鉴西方商业银行使用平衡计分卡的先进经验,从顾客、员工、组织、内部经营、创新等方面构建了商业银行业绩评价的非财务指标体系.     

Are they telling the truth? Revealing hidden traits of satisfaction with a public bike-sharing service

Public bike-sharing systems (BSSs) are an emerging mode of transportation introduced by municipalities to solve congestion problems in metropolitan areas, especially when integrated with other types of transportation. In the last years, the number of public bike-sharing services has been constantly on the rise all over the world, and generally the overall satisfaction with them is high. However, satisfaction with public services is driven by mechanisms that can differ from those in the private sector. It is important to establish to what extent a high satisfaction is genuine or simply ephemeral. Even “old” public services (like public transportation) become “gold” when accompanied by the introduction of new technologies. In this paper we analyze this phenomenon using data from a satisfaction web-survey conducted among customers of the public BSS “BikeMi” in Milan, Italy, in a period when mobile technologies have been introduced to speed up the service. On analyzing the responses to satisfaction questions using simple summary statistics, the level of satisfaction resulted very high. However, our aim was to look for potential “darker” sides of the service by detecting possible hidden satisfaction components. For this purpose, we used the Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis, which is particularly powerful in this context. A simple textual analysis was also performed as a validating test. Results from our analysis indicated that satisfaction is flawed by a set of factors like the mechanics of the bikes, the picking and dropping system, and the apps used to organize the service. Less concern was detected for more general aspects of the service.     

Political booms and currency crises

This paper shows evidence that political booms, defined as the rise in governments’ popularity, are associated with a higher likelihood of currency crises. The reasoning behind this finding is that prudent economic policies to address underlying weaknesses in the economy may be political costly for incumbent governments in the short-term. Hence, popularity-concerned governments may not have enough incentives to take such corrective actions in a timely manner. This approach, in turn, can deteriorate economic fundamentals and increase related risks in the economy which can eventually lead to crises. This paper sheds light on this phenomenon in the case of currency crises, suggesting that currency crises can be viewed as “political booms gone bust” events. Moreover, it finds that higher international reserves, higher exports, and a higher degree of financial openness alleviate the effect of political booms on currency crises.     

ALICE: Composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators with the aim to provide early signals for turning points in the euro area headline and core inflation cycles. The headline (core) ALICE leads the reference cycle by three (four) months and the lead times extend to five (nine) months based on longer-leading series. Both ALICE indicators signalled turning points in the inflation cycles ex post and also performed well in a simulated real-time exercise. Moreover, in particular the headline ALICE also appeared to be useful for quantitative forecasting of the direction and level of inflation.