How Does the Stock Market View Bank Regulatory Capital Forbearance Policies?

During the subprime crisis, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has shown, once again, laxity in resolving and closing insolvent institutions. Ronn and Verma (1986) call the tolerance level below which a bank closure is triggered the regulatory policy parameter. We derive a model in which we make this parameter stochastic and bank specific to infer the stock market view of the regulatory capital forbearance value. For 565 U.S. listed banks during 1990 to 2012, the countercyclical forbearance fraction in capital, most substantial in recessions, could represent 17%, on average, of the market valuation of bank equity and could go as high as 100%.     

INSOLVENCY PREDICTION IN THE PRESENCE OF DATA INCONSISTENCIES

In this paper we use data inconsistencies as an indicator of financial distress. Traditional models for insolvency prediction normally ignore inconsistent data, either by removing or replacing it. Instead of removing that information, we propose a new variable to capture it; using it together with traditional accounting variables (based on financial ratios) for the purpose of insolvency prediction. Computational tests use three datasets based on the financial results of 2033 Brazilian Health Maintenance Organizations over 7 years (2001 to 2007). Sixteen classification methods were used to evaluate whether or not the new variable impacted solvency prediction. Tests show a statistically significant improvement in classification accuracy – average results improve 1.3 (p = 0.003) and 1.8 (p = 0.006) percentage points, for 10‐fold and leave‐one‐out cross‐validations respectively. In addition, the analysis of false positives and false negatives shows that the new variable reduces the potentially harmful misclassification of false negatives (i.e. financially distressed companies being classified as financially healthy) and also reduces the estimated overall error rate. Regarding the extensibility of the results, even though this work uses data from Brazilian companies only, the calculation of the financial ratios variables, as well as the inconsistencies, could be extended to most companies worldwide subject to governmental accounting regulations aligned with the International Financial Reporting Standards. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deconstructing the Franchise as a Legal Entity: Practice and Research in International Franchise Law

This article canvasses practice and research in international franchising law. The franchisor law's key concepts are introduced. I then identify aspects of franchising practice that are poorly accommodated by the law. These aspects offer opportunities for productive research. I identify these aspects as follows: franchising law's reliance on contracts to regulate the relationship through all its phases, the risk that a “franchisee” is an employee, good faith, governance, and insolvency. I continue with suggestions as to why these challenges exist. The article concludes with emerging themes in franchise practice and research: e-commerce, natural disasters, sustainability, micro-franchising, and social franchising.     

Directors’ share dealings and corporate insolvencies: evidence from the UK

This paper investigates the relation between insider trading and the likelihood of insolvency with a specific focus on the directors’ sale and purchase transactions preceding insolvency. We use a unique data set on directors’ dealings in 474 non-financial UK firms, of which 117 filed for insolvency, over the period 2000–2010. We show that the directors of insolvent firms increase their purchase transactions significantly as the insolvency approaches. The results also reveal a significant relation between three different measures of insider trading activity and the likelihood of insolvency, which is observed to be positive only during the last six-month trading period. The relation is negative for the earlier trading periods. While the earlier purchase transactions appear to be motivated by superior information held by insiders, the purchase trades closer to the insolvency date are possibly initiated by directors’ motives to influence the market's perception of the firm in an attempt to avert or delay insolvency.     

系统风险下的银行破产传导机制分析

在系统风险与信息时滞的条件下分析了银行破产的传导性,根据资产组合原理给出银行破产模型,以该模型为基础,得出银行破产直接传导与间接传导的概率,指出人们易忽视的间接传导同样会引起银行危机。考虑距离成本、资产可分割性,指出二者的存在可使规模较小的银行相对于规模较大的银行在危机传导中处于劣势。     

企业财务困境概念内涵的探讨

介绍了国内外学者对财务困境研究的各种观点,并对各类财务困境事项进行了分析。在此基础上,界定了财务困境的内涵,即财务困境事项包含严重亏损以及现金流量严重不足、不能支付优先股股利、无偿债能力、破产等事项。     

Estimating financial distress likelihood

This study develops an ex-ante model for estimating financial distress likelihood (FDL), and contributes to the literature by presenting a financially-based definition of distress that is independent of its legal consequences, a theoretically supported model for the FDL, and an appropriate methodology that uses panel data to eliminate the unobservable heterogeneity. The model is then estimated cross-sectionally to obtain an indicator of the likelihood of financial distress that incorporates the specificity of each company. In doing so, this study provides a well-specified model that is stable in terms of magnitude, sign and significance of the coefficients and, more importantly, that yields a measure of the FDL that is more robust to time and the international context than the estimates of FDL that are based on seminal models. This measure could be appropriate for use in future research that deals with FDL, such as capital structure and the prevention of financial distress.     

Default of Systemically Important Financial Intermediaries: Short‐term Stability versus Incentive Compatibility?

Financial integration and globalization have acted as a major stimulus in the development of large, internationally operating banks, which not only provide cross‐border services but also have a local presence. While these banks are themselves drivers of economic integration, they can pose serious threats to financial stability. Their size, interconnectedness and importance as providers of specific services mean that financial institutions can be too‐systemic‐to‐fail (TSTF). Since the entry and exit of market participants is a crucial feature of well‐functioning markets, the absence of any credible possibility of failure leads to serious distortions. This analysis gives an overview of the TSTF problem and discusses the challenges to be faced in establishing credible resolution regimes.     

How a Bank Bailout may Increase Systemic Risk

In 2008–2009, the US government spent trillions of dollars to bailout its financial system and prevent insolvency due to a deterioration in domestic loan portfolios. The following dips in US bond prices suggest that global investors feared that the US was over-extending itself and might be unable to repay its debt with taxes rather than inflation. The paper illustrates that if uncertainty arises about a large government's ability to raise taxes to repay its debt, then a debt-financed bailout which initially restores bank health may inadvertently contribute to the financial system's ultimate demise if banks are important lenders to a foreign country that pegs its currency to the domestic money.