Capital Flows to Latin America (2003–17): A Critical Survey from Prebisch’s Business Cycle Theory

ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.     

Institutional design and the closure of public facilities in transition economies

As part of the reforms of their systems for financing and delivering health care, many transition economies, particularly in central and eastern Europe, have adopted national insurance funds that are institutionally separate from ministries of health. Most of these countries have also grappled with the problem of restructuring the delivery system, especially the need to reduce hospital capacity. Although improving the performance of medical care providers through a shift from passive budgeting to explicitly incentive mechanisms is important, why this change in financial relations between the government and providers could not be implemented simply by reforming the role of health ministries is not obvious. This paper presents an explicit rationale for the separation of powers between the regulator (the ministry of health) and the financing body (the insurance fund), based on the inability of a single agency to commit to closing hospitals. JEL classification: L51, P20, P35, I18.     

Capital market trading volume: an overview and some preliminary conclusions

This paper suggests an explanation for the heavy trading volumeobserved on the US capital markets, the world's largest. Heterodoxeconomic theory puts much of this volume down to speculation.Mainstream theory tends to support this thesis, either directlyor indirectly, by giving space to the idea that trading activityis for the most part exogenous to the functioning of the capitalmarkets. The central hypothesis of this paper is that the tradingvolumes observed are an endogenous feature of the capital markets,because they are to a great extent determined by the needs ofthe institutional investors who predominate on these markets.This endogeneity of trading is posited in connection with theemergence of a new ‘core–satellite’ paradigmin institutional investment, a development that essentiallymanifests the asset-management industry's transformation froma small industry serving a few wealthy clients to a mass industryserving large sections of the population.     

中国投资者关系管理规范化的障碍与路径

随着经济全球化及人们投资观念的转变，越来越多的上市公司已意识到要保证融资渠道的畅通和公司的持续发展，就必须重视投资关系管理。从证券市场规范发展和国际化着眼，我国上市公司投资关系管理规范化已时不我待，并成为我国证券管理层和理论工作必须研究解决的一个现实问题。     

政府转型模式与转型绩效：中国经验

改革开放以来,中国政府转型采取了一种滞后于经济转型的渐进转型模式,取得了巨大的成功。通过分析转型经济政府的角色与作用,解释中国政府滞后于经济转型的渐进转型模式,有效减少地方政府“被俘获”和“竞租”风险、联结不完全计划和不完全市场、推进制度创新,从而提升转型绩效。中国经验对转型经济具有借鉴意义。     

基于制度经济学的“两田制”改良研究——从山东改革说起

文章在判断现有两田制弊端的基础上,提出了一个改良的两田制的设想,并运用制度经济学理论予以可行性研究,得出改良的两田制符合各方利益,具有现实可行性的结论,并提出了保证改良的两田制得以实施的一些配套措施.     

An Alternative Post-Keynesian Framework for Understanding Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

This article contributes to the establishment of a framework for the analysis of international capital flows, with a specific focus on emerging markets. It is based on a “monetary” analysis of the economy, as well as on the works of Hyman Minsky and Jan Toporowski in particular. The key aspects of such an approach are the following. First, in a monetary economy, capital flows need to be understood as “flows of funds” that pertain to the realm of financial choices, as opposed to the traditional understanding of capital flows as based on “real” variables, such as saving and investment. A consequence of this is the need to focus on gross flows rather than capital flows. Second, liquidity preference considerations also apply at the international level, particularly in relation to the liquidity of emerging-market currencies that, in turn, depends on context-specific “Keynesian fundamentals.” Third, the rise of institutional investors is the key historical development in the financial system, shaping the current reality of cross-border capital flows, including to emerging markets. I argue that institutional investors’ liabilities, in light of the theories of Minsky and Toporowski, are one of the most important variables in determining these investors’ portfolio choices. I synthesize these elements by defining capital flows to emerging markets as the demand for emerging-market assets by institutional investors. I propose a framework to categorize the various channels that guide this demand.     

垄断与产权:我国利率市场化的制度性障碍

在缺乏竞争的金融体系下，借贷价格偏离均衡价格，消费剩余减少，资源配置扭曲，金融运行效率降低。在我国，资金供应依然主要由居于垄断地位的国有商业银行及其变种组成和资金需求依然主要由国有企业及其变种组成的情况下，利率市场化会使得资金价格扭曲和变形，理论上推演的利率市场化预期效果在很大程度上无法实现。我国利率市场化的时间表只能视微观经济主体市场化的进程而定。     

机构侵害中小投资者违规监管博弈仿真

本文主要对股票市场中机构投资者侵害中小投资者利益这种违规行为的监管进行了博弈分析,并使用基于主体建模的动态仿真方法在Swarm仿真平台上建立了仿真模型,同时进行了仿真实验。研究指出,严厉的事前监管、完善的上市公司管理制度以及更高的监管者素质可以有效地杜绝机构投资者侵害违规行为的出现。本文通过运用经济仿真方法对股票市场具体违规行为监管问题进行研究,将股票市场监管、博弈论与经济仿真这三个研究领域结合在一起,拓展了对股票市场监管的研究手段,在经济学研究中做出了一定有益的探索。 更多还原     

The Living Wage,Economic Efficiency,and Socio-Economic Wellbeing in a Competitive Market Economy

Conventional economic wisdom views a Living Wage as costly in term of economic efficiency and competitiveness. I argue, based on x-efficiency theory, that higher wages need not cause any economic harm and can, on the contrary, generate higher levels of material wellbeing. Higher wages can be expected to induce x-efficiency and technological change cost offsets. In this context, an effective living wage, one that is above some subsistence minimum, can have a net efficiency effect on the economy. Therefore, a living wage greater than the wage rate generated by the free market cannot be predicted to generate economic harm. With the institutional parameters in place to realize a living wage, the economic pie can be expected to grow to accommodate the living wage.