闲暇经济理论综述及最新进展

随着国外发达国家相继进入后工业化社会,闲暇经济理论尽管还远未成型,但已经成为国外经济研究的新兴课题,本文按照闲暇经济理论的发展历史和研究方向,从两个方向综述了该理论的内容,一是依据对不同类型闲暇时间的研究来进行综述,二是在此基础上从闲暇被引入进各类函数和经济系统的角度综述了相关研究的主要成果.     

Modelling international tourism and country risk spillovers for Cyprus and Malta

Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs) are developing sovereign countries that rely on tourism as a source of exports, and need a consistent inflow of foreign investment in order to facilitate economic growth. Access to international capital markets helps SITEs smooth out their consumption over time, while absorbing adverse domestic production shocks. This paper provides a comparison of tourism growth, country risk returns and their associated volatilities (or uncertainty) for 2 SITEs, namely Cyprus and Malta. Monthly data are available for both international tourist arrivals and composite country risk ratings compiled by the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) for the period May 1986 to May 2002. The time-varying conditional variances of tourism growth and country risk returns for the 2 SITEs are analysed using multivariate models of conditional volatility. Empirical results show that Cyprus and Malta are complementary destinations for international tourists. Changes to tourism patterns in Cyprus lead to changes to tourism patterns in Malta. Hence, tour operators and national tourism promotion authorities in Cyprus and Malta should collaborate closely in marketing and promoting joint tourism products. Moreover, foreign entities interested in investing in the tourism sectors of Cyprus and Malta should consider investment projects that span a long period of time. The performance of the tourism sector and the associated composite risk are independent of each other for the two countries. However, there is a direct relationship between the tourism sectors of Cyprus and Malta and their respective country risk settings.     

中国经济潜在增长率的变动分析——基于日韩及金砖四国等典型国家1961-2010年的经验比较

国际金融危机背景下中国经济不平衡、不协调、不可持续的结构性矛盾日益突显,尤其是2012年中国政府更是八年来首次将国内生产总值（GDP）预期增长目标调低至8%以下,中国经济的发展轨迹及其未来发展潜力再次引发热议。要想对此做出回答有赖于对典型国家发展经验比较的基础上做出科学分析。基于此,本文以成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”的典型经济体日本、韩国,以及金砖国家的巴西、印度、俄罗斯为比较研究的对象,利用HP滤波法获得的典型国家潜在增长率变动的历史轨迹,深入分析我国及上述国家在不同发展阶段上潜在经济增长率变动的总体特征,及其产业结构、要素投入结构和需求结构变动的显著特征,由此为中国经济实现快速持续健康发展和发展方式的根本性转变提供经验借鉴。     

浙江省经济增长要素贡献率的实证分析

在浙江省的经济增长过程中,劳动力贡献率是最低的,资金投入量与技术进步贡献率呈现上升趋势。就目前来看,在浙江省的经济发展中,资金投入量是经济增长的主动力,技术进步是经济增长的加速器,而劳动力资源为浙江省的经济增长提供了宽阔的空间。     

经济增长的能源支撑状况及其强化途径文献综述研究

我国经济增长面临着严峻的能源挑战,但我国绝不能因能源压力而放弃经济增长,放弃“中国梦”。因而必须加快转变经济发展方式,实现经济持续、健康发展。学界针对这一热点问题分别从经济增长的能源瓶颈及效应、提高能源效率、开发新能源等角度探讨了经济增长的能源支撑状况及其强化途径。最后,对学界关于经济增长的能源支撑文献进行了总结。     

Farm size and productivity growth in the United States Corn Belt

In recent decades, agricultural production in the U.S. has continued to shift to large-scale operations, raising concerns about the economic viability of small and midsized farms. To understand whether economies of size provided an incentive for the consolidation of production, the study estimates the total factor productivity (TFP) of five size classes of grain-producing farms in the U.S. Heartland (Corn Belt) region. Using quinquennial Agricultural Census data from 1982 to 2012 the study also compares TFP growth rates across farm sizes to gain insight into whether observed productivity differences are likely to persist. The finding of a strong positive relationship between farm size and TFP suggests that consolidation of production has contributed to recent aggregate productivity growth in the crop sector. The study estimates the extent to which sectoral productivity growth can be attributed to structural change versus other factors including technological change. The study also explores some tradeoffs associated with policies that raise the productivity of small versus large farms.     

Are China’s regional agricultural productivities converging: How and why?

This article tests the hypotheses of convergence to a single level of total factor productivity (TFP), and a steady state of TFP growth rate in China’s agricultural sector. Based on multilateral TFP estimates we found that China’s agricultural sector has rebounded in recent years from a slower TFP growth in the 2005–2007 period. While convergence test results confirm a “catch-up” effect that provinces with lower TFP levels tend to grow faster than others, estimated rates of β convergence are conditional on how we capture the heterogeneity effect across regions. The rates of β convergence range from 0.016 to 0.039 under different model specifications. Estimates show that higher growth rates of educational attainment, R&D, and intermediate goods density (per unit of labor) can enhance TFP growth. Unfortunately, there is no evidence of an overall σ convergence, indicating that TFP levels are not converging except in the South region. It implies that to catch up with leading provinces, it would require extra efforts for those lagging behind by increasing their region-specific research investment, promoting rural educational attainment, and enhancing embodied technical change.     

我国服务业FDI结构、技术进步与经济增长

服务业外商直接投资可分为生产性服务业外商直接投资和消费性服务业外商直接投资,二者对国家经济增长有着不同的影响。本文从技术进步的角度,利用面板模型,研究了我国不同类型服务业外商直接投资对经济增长的影响,并分别讨论了东西部地区服务业外商直接投资对技术进步和经济增长的差异性影响。研究结果表明生产性服务业外商直接投资对经济增长和服务业技术进步均有明显促进作用,消费性服务业外商直接投资对经济增长有促进作用,但对服务业技术进步有阻碍作用,且这一趋势在我国东西部地区之间存在显著差异。     

科技型中小企业成长因素分析

对我国科技型中小企业成长的影响因素进行的理论和实证分析表明,受制于现阶段我国科技进步的国情,作为我国科技创新主体的广大科技型中小企业的发展状况并不是很乐观。大部分科技型中小企业仍然处于传统产品的生产领域中,企业科技投入水平低,限制了企业的进一步成长。对科技人员和知识成果不够重视,仍然以传统的方式进行生产经营,企业未来的成长性因此受到很大限制。     

当前经济形势与互换利率走势判断

2010年上半年,利率互换市场交投活跃。随着市场对经济增长和政策运用预期的不断修正,互换利率继1月创出新高后一路振荡下行。预计下半年,在基本面、政策面、资金面和利率自身波动节奏的相互作用下,市场参与者的预期将反复进行修正,互换利率将呈现宽幅震荡。