Forecasting China's GDP growth using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data

Forecasting GDP growth is important and necessary for Chinese government to set GDP growth target. To fully and efficiently utilize macroeconomic and financial information, this paper attempts to forecast China's GDP growth using dynamic predictors and mixed-frequency data. The dynamic factor model is first applied to select dynamic predictors among large amount of monthly macroeconomic and daily financial data and then the mixed data sampling regression is applied to forecast quarterly GDP growth based on the selected monthly and daily predictors. Empirical results show that forecasts using dynamic predictors and mixed-frequency data have better accuracy comparing to traditional forecasting methods. Moreover, forecasts with leads and forecast combination can further improve forecast performance.     

A study on the importance of airline selection attributes by airline type: An emphasis on the difference of opinion in between Korean and overseas aviation experts

The main purpose of this research is to understand the relative importance of airline selection attributes that are considered important by passengers when selecting an airline. Specifically, we analyzed how the attribute selections differed based on airline types, a Full Service Carrier (FSC) and a Low Cost Carrier (LCC). For this purpose, a Delphi analysis was performed with 34 Korean aviation experts and 32 overseas aviation experts as the target sample groups. Statistical tests including Mann-Whitney U Test and Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test, were used to analyze the selection attributes. In the case of FSCs, safety, flight schedule, cabin interior, and fast check-in processes were considered to be important selection attributes whereas for LCCs, air fare level, flight safety, the convenience of air ticket purchasing procedures, and additional charges were considered to be the important selection attributes. Additionally, there was a difference in the importance of airline selection attributes depending on whether it was a Korean or overseas aviation market. The result of these findings may be utilized as basic data in establishing a marketing strategy for an airline company to attract more passengers.     

基于因子分析和DEA模型的现代光伏农业技术经济性综合评价研究

发展现代光伏农业是推进现代农业可持续发展的重要途径，对现代光伏农业进行技术经济性综合评价有较强的现实意义，为此，建立了因子分析法和DEA相结合的现代光伏农业技术经济性综合评价模型。首先，利用因子分析法对评价指标进行了降维处理；然后，根据DEA模型需要对指标数据进行了标准化处理；最后，利用DEA模型完成了对50亩智能农业大棚各经营方案的评价，结果表明：将光伏发电和温室大棚种植相结合具有良好的技术经济效益。     

A new index of financial conditions

We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility to construct a financial conditions index that can accurately track expectations about growth in key US macroeconomic variables. Time-variation in the models׳ parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection which allow the financial variables entering into the financial conditions index to change over time. We discuss why such extensions of the existing literature are important and show them to be so in an empirical application involving a wide range of financial variables.     

河南省农民消费支出地区差异的实证分析

据2011年河南省统计年鉴调查数据表明,河南省各地区农民支出差异较大,且呈现出进一步扩大的趋势。文章从河南省农民消费支出地区差异的现状着手,对河南省农民消费支出地区差异进行实证分析,找出影响河南省各地区农民消费支出的主要影响因素,并提出解决河南省农民消费支出差异较大问题方案的模型,为合理调整河南省农民消费结构,尽快消除消费支出地区差异较大并继续扩大的现象,实现各地区经济均衡发展提供一定的科学依据。     

企业内部控制评价指标体系研究

通过对国内外内部控制研究文献的分析,从五要素即内部环境、风险评估、控制活动、信息与沟通及内部监督出发构建含5个一级指标21个二级指标的初始评价指标体系.然后通过探索性因子分析和验证性性因子分析对其可靠性及合理性进行检验,证明了该模型具有良好信度和效度等.最后将所构建的评价指标应用于同性质的企业并对其内部控制进行评价,结果验证所构建的企业内部控制指标体系的适用价值.     

Equivalence of optimal noisy-ranking contests and Tullock contests

We analyze a noisy-ranking contest in which participants compete in several dimensions. The organizer randomly samples a number of dimensions and awards a prize to the most productive agent. When the contest is optimally designed, we establish a structural equivalence between this family of noisy-ranking contests and contests built upon Tullock contest success functions. Our result also shows that in this class of noisy-contests, the profit-maximization problem of the planner can be turned into a stochastic choice problem for a planner who has some deterministic preferences over the contestants’ win probabilities.     

Antecedents of mobile payment loyalty: An extended perspective of perceived value and information system success model

Drawing on the information system success model and perceived value theory, we develop a research model to examine factors that may affect user satisfaction and loyalty of mobile payment platforms. Empirical data was collected from users using Alipay and WeChat Pay in China, and a total of 410 valid responses were gathered for data analysis. The results show that the multi-dimensional formative perceived value including benefits and sacrifice is important determinant of mobile payment user satisfaction and loyalty. The three benefit dimensions of functional value, experiential value and social value are more important value components than the two sacrifice dimensions of risk and cost, and experiential value is the dominant component of mobile payment users' value perception. As for the antecedents of perceived value, system quality and service quality mainly affect perceived benefits, while information quality has a greater impact on risk. The research results provide the contribution of specific value dimensions to users' perceived value and the impact of quality characteristics on specific perceived value for mobile payment platform providers, thus helping them to adopt effective strategies to strengthen market competitiveness and retain existing users.     

Factors influencing theme park visitor brand-switching behaviour as based on visitor perception

With the development of theme parks, which represent a multi-million-pound industry worldwide, research investigating the factors affecting theme park visitor brand-switching behaviour is an important method for improving theme park competitiveness. In the present work, models and research hypothesis are constructed based on visitor perception, and the survey data are collected and analysed to assess the hypothesis and to revise the conceptual model in this paper. The results indicate that there are seven factors influencing visitor brand-switching behaviour: ‘visitor variety-seeking', ‘visitor satisfaction', ‘switching cost', ‘perceived value', ‘competitor attraction', ‘theme park image' and ‘visitor involvement'. The perceived value and visitor satisfaction strongly influence brand-switching behaviour as intermediate variables. Visitor variety-seeking and competitor attraction are positively related to visitor brand switching behaviour, whereas the other five factors are negatively related to visitor brand-switching behaviour.     

Effects of service orientation on job embeddedness in hotel industry

This research aims to develop and analyze a model that depicts work engagement (WE) as a mediator of the relationship between job embeddedness and service orientation. Specifically, the model examines external environmental factors (EEFs) as moderator of the effects of service orientation and job embeddedness in the hospitality industry. All data used for this study were gathered in Iran from hotels frontline employees with a two-weeks’ time lag. These relationships mentioned above were analyzed using AMOS 22.0. It was discovered in the results that WE was indeed a partial mediator and that EEFs indeed moderated the effects of service orientation on job embeddedness with adequate empirical support. The implications of the findings for the managers, the study limitations, and future research recommendations were also discussed.