小学语文长文短教之我见

"题目"是文章的眼睛,透过文题可以窥探文章的主旨。通过"题目",教师可以熟练地驾驭教材,有效地组织课堂教学,找到教学的突破口,把握文章的中心思想。     

马克思"资本主义再生产周期"与西方"经济长周期论"比较研究

马克思的再生产理论表明,社会生产的两大部类及两大部类之间必须保持一定的比例关系,社会总资本再生产才能顺利进行。但是,由于资本主义制度固有的内在矛盾———生产的社会化与生产资料的私人占有这一基本矛盾,使社会再生产所要求的比例关系往往不能保持,导致经济危机的爆发。在马克思之后,资本主义经济危机爆发日趋严重,一些马克思主义经济学家和西方资产阶级经济学家对这一现象进行了研究,“西方经济长周期理论”就是其突出成果之一。但是,由于西方资产阶级经济学家阶级的局限性以及在此立场上所形成的社会观、历史观和方法论,都制约和妨碍了他们对经济长周期理论的深入研究和本质分析,这也是他们得不出科学理论的根本原因。     

河北省宏观经济运行的长期均衡分析

运用协整理论和误差修正模型，估计了河北省宏观经济运行的长期均衡和短期波动关系。从长期看，河北省宏观经济系统存在协整关系，且这种关系对即期GDP具有促进作用．河北经济是投资驱动和出口拉动型的，消费不直接促进经济增长，而是通过协整关系间接促进经济增长。     

基于HAR—RV模型的中国证券市场异质性研究

随着高频数据可以越来越方便的获得,过去的ARCH模型及GARCH模型已经不能满足高频数据研究的需要。相比于模型波动率,已实现波动率能够更直接、准确地描述波动率的特征。研究表明,已实现波动率具有长记忆特性,其解释之一即为异质市场假说,即市场中存在异质交易者。文章选取了HAR—Rv模型对已实现波动率进行建模,并且通过回归分析,证明了我国股票市场交易者存在异质性。     

Psychological factors affecting memorable tourism experiences

This study tries to explore psychological components of memorable tourist experience (MTE) that are most likely to recall tourists’ memories. Urban residents from three representative cities in China were selected as research samples, and totally 301 usable questionnaires were used for data analysis. The results showed that the recollection of MTE was positively affected by novelty, involvement and social interaction. It was also suggested that hedonism and novelty had positive effects on the vividness of MTEs significantly. Additionally, in the context of Chinese culture, two new psychological factors, social interaction and perceived serendipity, resulted in different effects on the MTE.     

Tourist narratives about the dissonant heritage of the Borderlands: the case of South-eastern Poland

ABSTRACT

One of the important effects of the political transformation after 1989 in Eastern Europe is the development of tourism and increasing mobility of citizens from many countries, previously separated by the ‘Iron Curtain’. The process of economic and socio-cultural change justifies the debate regarding the future, but also on the legacy of the past. As for South-eastern Poland, tourism has been used as an important narrative tool for spreading, strengthening or weakening ethnic and national stereotypes by promoting cultural resources and performances that enable cooperation and mutual understanding. However, it can also be a source of potential fears or conflicts, for instance by creating controversial tourist attractions and stories about certain historical events. This paper discusses strategies of ‘past presencing’ of the heritage of South-eastern Poland border regions in public life, culture and tourism, drawing on a few examples which show different ways of restoring the memory of the former Eastern Borderlands. The theme village called ‘The Borderland Settlement’ and the historical reconstruction ‘Volyn 1943–2013’ relate to the main myths and the active memory concept that frame tourist narratives and contribute to the reinvention and reinterpretation of dissonant heritage.     

资本市场监管边界研究——来自短期融资券与公司债券市场发展对比的启示

政府对资本市场的监管一直是各界争论的焦点.实践证明,不同金融领域的监管政策是影响该领域发展的重要因素.2005年引进的短期融资券是发展最成功的金融产品之一,与有20年历史的企业债形成鲜明对比.通过比较,认为过去的政策和市场监管严重妨碍了公司债券市场多样性的发展,导致发行缓慢和流动性欠佳.针对这些不足,提出公司债券市场的监管边界--在保护供需双方多元化的基础上.提高发行效率、扩大投资者范围及完善交易平台.     

Becoming a historical thinker might be the first step for developing a consciousness of reasoned conciliation

The goal of this presentation is to examine the hypothesis that the ethno-political conflict in Israel can be utilized in history education to foster learning of historical thinking and to construct a tolerant space within the education system that will enable the structuring of in-principle criteria for coexistence prior to the ending of the conflict. I assumed that inculcation of historical knowledge in the education system in Israel by means of an attentive and reflexive cultural dialogue, which sensitively and skillfully confronts contradictory historical narratives as an everyday learning reality in class, will help structure a conciliatory consciousness of the kind we seek.     

Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries

In this study, we estimate Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and time-varying structural VAR (TVP-VAR) models for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey to analyze the impacts of short-term interest rates on stock prices and exchange rates considering the relationships between these variables. BVAR and TVP-VAR models’ estimations indicate that monetary policy decisions of these countries lead to capital movements as well as capital movements may create a considerable amount of variation in exchange and stock markets both in the periods of economic stability and financial crisis. We also reveal that increases in interest rates intending to prevent capital outflows may lead to decrease in stock returns, which in turn may deteriorate the real economic activity in Indonesia, while changes in short-term interest rates in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey cannot be used as a tool to stabilize the value of their home currencies against the USD. Our study highlights the importance of formulating an optimal monetary policy framework accompanied by macro-prudential polices, which help to reach inflation target and smooth the possible variations in exchange rates and stock prices during economic crisis conditions in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.     

Do global CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel consumption exhibit long memory? a fractional-integration analysis

In this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world CO₂ emissions and its five components – coal, oil, gas, cement, and gas flaring. We find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting, but exhibit long-term memory. Our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long-range dependence, while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest. With evidence of long memory, we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long-lasting effects, but not permanent effects. Accordingly, permanent effects on CO₂ emissions require a more permanent policy stance. In this context, if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non-stationarity, one would likely conclude in favour of non-stationarity, and therefore that even transitory policy shocks have permanent effects. Our fractional-integration analysis highlights that this is not the case.