Who Will Pay for Long‐Term Care in the UK? Projections Linking Macro‐ and Micro‐Simulation Models

The long‐term care funding system continues to attract much debate in the UK. We produce projections of state and private long‐term care expenditure and analyse the distributional impact of state‐financed care, through innovative linking of macro‐ and micro‐simulation models. Variant assumptions about life expectancy, dependency and care costs are examined and the impact of universal state‐financed (‘free’) personal care, based on need but not ability to pay, is investigated. We find that future long‐term care expenditure is subject to considerable uncertainty and is particularly sensitive to assumed future trends in real input costs. On a central set of assumptions, free personal care would, by 2051, increase public spending on long‐term care from 1.1 per cent of GDP to 1.3 per cent, or more if it generated an increase in demand. Among the care‐home population aged 85 or over, the immediate beneficiaries of free personal care would be those with relatively high incomes.     

Initial Public Offerings in Australia 1994 to 1999, Recent Evidence of Underpricing and Underperformance

This paper analyses whether financial and non financial characteristics of Australian initial public offerings (IPOs) can explain observed underpricing and long term underperformance over the period 1994 to 1999. A number of previous Australian studies have investigated initial day underpricing and longer term underperformance of IPOs and this study updates those papers. We find that initial day underpricing can in part be explained by market sentiment, forecast dividend per share yields, underwriter options and share options. Our longer term analysis supports the finding of previous studies in that IPOs on average, underperform the market in the first year following their listing.     

警惕短期外债风险

随着人民币升值预期的加强，短期外债不断增加。虽然总体衡量外债风险的指标显现出短期外债风险仍然在安全限度内，但是其潜在风险不能忽视。负债主体的构成、负债主体的资产负债结构使风险的衡量更加具体。在我国目前的汇率制度下，短期外债的增加进而外汇储备的急剧增加影响了货币政策的独立性，容易引发宏观经济风险。     

2012年4月国际金融市场运行综述

2012年4月，美元指数先升后降，总体小幅下跌；欧元、英镑短期利率下降，美元、日元短期利率基本走平；主要发达国家中长期国债收益率总体振荡下行；全球主要股指先降后升，总体下行。     

Intraday effects of macroeconomic shocks on the US Dollar–Euro exchange rates

This paper characterizes the intriguing features of high frequency 15-min Dollar–Euro foreign exchange returns data. The FIGARCH model is found to be the preferred specification for the long memory volatility process in the high frequency returns. This paper then examines how macroeconomic shocks affect the high frequency Dollar–Euro returns on an intraday basis. Quantifying the intraday effects of the shocks on the high frequency returns by using a linearly distributed lag dummy variable, this paper finds that the effects on the high frequency returns are generally statistically significant and that they appear to be asymmetric depending on the regions and the signs of the shocks and to be persistent for several lags even within a day. However, the macroeconomic shocks are found not to affect the long memory property in the high frequency returns implying that the linear dummy variable model may not be enough to explain the long memory property.     

我国市场短期负债筹资的影响因素研究

通过对相关文献以及市场最新信息的收集,分析了企业短期负债筹资的影响因素,从而为企业筹措短期资金提供借鉴,以期增强企业在运营时对短期资金财务风险与规划的管理。     

Stress test for reforms: Transition and East Asian 'contagion'

Contagion from East Asia imposed a severe 'stress test' on the market-orientedreforms of transition economies. We find that the portfolio reallocations of investors differentiated sharply among these economies at the height of the East Asian turmoil, appearing clearly in the relative movements in interest rates and share prices. Those countries that appeared more vulnerable to contagion had large public or private sector imbalances and low reserve cover of short-term debt. The analysis, however, goes beyond macroeconomic and financial imbalances to link these weak fundamentals to inadequate structural and institutional reforms. We find that flaws in public finances together with weak enterprises and financial institutions were key underlying factors in the vulnerability to East Asian contagion. They were also key causes of the Russian crisis, which initiated a new round of contagion driven primarily by high exposures to Russian trade.     

装配型企业采购件库存控制的研究与实践

针对成套打包采购的瓶颈是采购周期很长，根据不同种类零件采购提前期的差异进行分类，将原来进口套件中采购周期较长的零件拆分成较长提前期零件的套件（Long Lead Time Kits，简称LLT套件），分别进行采购。并借助于数量统计，给出相应的安全库存的计算模型：达到缩短绝大部分零部件采购周期，降低库存总成本的目标。     

Are There Hot Hands Among Mutual Fund Houses in Hong Kong?

This paper examines the short-term performance persistence of thirty-two fund houses in Hong Kong during January 1986 to December 1995. We compute fund house returns using averages of all equity funds in each house. Then we evaluate their hot hand performance using the median return as benchmark on a rolling monthly basis. The results show that there were only two 'hot hand' fund houses. Findings using annual returns confirm the non-existence of a hot hand phenomenon. However, we find a strong correlation between conditional and unconditional probabilities of winning repeatedly in consecutive months     

Long Memory In Futures Prices

This paper tests for fractional roots in the futures prices for selected commodities, foreign currencies, and stock indexes. The fractional testing method is the spectral regression method suggested by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983). The empirical results suggest the presence of a fractional exponent in the differencing process for several commodity and foreign currency futures prices. The returns series for these commodities and currencies exhibit long range positive dependence. However, differencing of exact order one is sufficient for the stock index futures prices. Implications are drawn concerning theoretical and econometric modeling and price forecasting.