The Euro Area Bond Free Float and the Implications for QE

This paper examines how shocks to government bond duration risk held by price-sensitive investors affect the euro area term structure of interest rates and the wider macroeconomy. We construct a new measure of the bond “free float,” which adjusts total debt for foreign official holdings and weights by residual maturity. Using a small macrofinance Bayesian Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, we estimate that the first round of asset purchases under the European Central Bank's (ECB) public sector purchase program reduced euro area 10-year bond yields by around 30 bps in 2015. The positive impact on the output gap and inflation in 2016 was about 0.2 and 0.3 ppt, respectively.     

经济政策不确定性、金融摩擦与宏观经济

基于Baker的经济政策不确定性指数和平滑转移向量自回归模型,分析了经济政策不确定性对宏观经济的影响及其传导机制。研究表明:经济政策不确定性的冲击通过实物期权机制对投资和产出造成短期的负面影响,加大了宏观经济的波动性;金融摩擦使经济政策不确定性冲击对宏观经济的影响具有非对称性;金融摩擦的程度以外部融资溢价水平来衡量,在外部融资溢价水平"高"的情况下,经济政策不确定性的冲击对宏观经济的不良影响更大。     

'Urban Bias', Intersectoral Resource Flows and the Macroeconomic Implications of Agrarian Relations: The Historical Experience of Japan and Taiwan

It is argued that agrarian relations play a critical role in the pattern of intersectoral resource flows and the way in which the agricultural sector shapes the macroeconomy in developing countries. The notion of 'urban bias' used by GKI is defective in its abstracting from the pre-existing agrarian system and from the prevailing institutions and in focussing on one simple set of influences outside the agricultural sector itself, i.e. government policy bias. This is illustrated with reference to the historical experience of two countries regarded as exemplary by GKI: Japan and Taiwan. Their experience shows that high rates of taxation and surplus extraction from agriculture are not incompatible with maintaining profitability and production incentives in agriculture, as long as agrarian relations and other enabling conditions can ensure a fast enough rate of technological progress and productivity growth in the sector. The macroeconomic implications of different agrarian relations are much more complex than the urban bias story told by GKI would suggest.     

2010年中国金融政策执行效果分析

本文在对2010年中国宏观经济运行情况、执行的主要金融政策、金融市场运行及政策效果进行全面分析的基础上,对2011年宏观经济形势进行了分析和预测,并对应执行的金融政策提出了建议。在适度宽松货币政策和有扶有控的主要信贷政策的推动下,2010年中国经济平稳较快发展,金融市场运行总体平稳,但存在着通货膨胀预期增强等问题。2011年中国货币政策应由宽松转向稳健,同时搭配积极的财政政策,利用合理的信贷政策,稳定物价总水平,促进经济结构调整,推进金融结构改革。     

商务环境建设与宏观经济发展

本文认为,改进商务环境对于我国未来的发展具有重要意义,从战略上讲,商务环境对市场规模与分工之间的互动关系起着非常重要的制衡作用;从现实来讲,在未来一两年我们可能会面临比较紧的经济环境,除了企业需要练内功、降低经营成本和改善经营环境以提高企业存活率外,政府还应该下大力气改善商务环境,降低企业经营的各种交易费用。文章提出,要真正落实《行政许可法》,真正实行报备制;改善税收环境,让内外贸企业享受同样的待遇,把生产型增值税改成消费型增值税;大力发展服务业,改善融资环境,积极发展地区性民营中小银行和民营担保业,由政府出面筹建中小企业发展局,加强和加快社会信用体系、诚信体系以及个人信用与企业信用评估机制建设。     

中国宏观经济分析及其政策取向

就2007-2009年我国的宏观经济进行了分析,并指出了潜在的风险。同时提出了未来中国经济要想保持平稳较快增长所面临的种种问题与挑战;并就如何正确评估当前形势、潜在风险以及采取什么样的应对措施进行了论述。     

经验政治经济学视角下的宏观经济变动理论

主流经济学在研究宏观经济变动的内在机制时，政治制度及其演变的影响通常被忽略或未被充分考虑。有鉴于此，经验政治经济学在主流经济学的基础上，加入政治制度变量，以理解现实世界中各种政治制度的运作与演变对宏观经济变动的内在影响。经验政治经济学的研究领域几乎涉及宏观经济的每一个重要领域，也取得了丰硕的成果。本文回顾了经验政治经济学在经济周期、公共支出规模、公共支出组合和社会福利支出等重要宏观经济问题上的主要研究与成果。