财产保险公司资产负债管理多维量化评估体系研究

良好的资产负债管理是保险业可持续发展的基石,也是支持保险业在日益复杂的风险环境中保持稳健发展、防范系统性风险的重要保障。近年来,随着我国金融市场发展,业务产品创新加快,保险业在资产端与负债端的业务结构和风险特征出现了新情况、新变化。特别是部分保险公司缺乏有效的治理结构,采取激进经营、激进投资的策略,导致业务快进快出、风险敞口过大以及流动性问题,对保险公司资产负债匹配管理、风险控制提出了挑战。本文介绍了财产保险公司资产负债多维度量化评估规则设计原理、主要评估模型和评估方法,针对财产保险公司的负债特性提出的沉淀资金匹配,在成本收益匹配中有机地将资产投资收益与承保业务综合成本进行匹配,在现金流匹配模式中打破了僵化的匹配模式,解决了长期困扰财产保险公司的资产负债期限不匹配的问题,对财产保险公司资产负债管理具有重要意义。     

Seasoned Equity Issues in a Closely Held Market: Evidence from France

This paper examines seasoned equity offerings in France.Even though a rights offering is the primary flotation method, French companies are increasingly usingthe relatively expensive public offering method. We show that the market reaction to the announcementof seasoned equity issues is significantly negative for rights issues and insignificantly negative forpublic offerings. Our results suggest that the adverse selection effect is greater for rights issues thanfor public offerings, due to stronger underwriter certification for the public offerings. We find that theshare price effect is positively related to blockholders take-up renouncements for firms with priorconcentrated ownership. For these firms, the favourable ownership dispersion effect offsets the adverse selection effect.     

基于模糊控制的三相异步电动机的软起动系统

本系统主要通过对模糊控制器的设计 ,将异步电动机的起动电流既限制在了一定的范围内 ,又可得到较大的起动力矩。由于又采用了参数自调整作为辅助控制 ,不但改善了起动时的动态性能 ,而且改善了稳定运行时的静态性能     

A Semiparametric Method for Valuing Residential Locations: Application to Automated Valuation

This paper is motivated by automated valuation systems, which would benefit from an ability to estimate spatial variation in location value. It develops theory for the local regression model (LRM), a semiparametric approach to estimating a location value surface. There are two parts to the LRM: (1) an ordinary least square (OLS) model to hold constant for interior square footage, land area, bathrooms, and other structural characteristics; and (2) a non-parametric smoother (local polynomial regression, LPR) which calculates location value as a function of latitude and longitude. Several methods are used to consistently estimate both parts of the model. The LRM was fit to geocoded hedonic sales data for six towns in the suburbs of Boston, MA. The estimates yield substantial, significant and plausible spatial patterns in location values. Using the LRM as an exploratory tool, local peaks and valleys in location value identified by the model are close to points identified by the tax assessor, and they are shown to add to the explanatory power of an OLS model. Out-of-sample MSE shows that the LRM with a first-degree polynomial (local linear smoothing) is somewhat better than polynomials of degree zero or degree two. Future applications might use degree zero (the well-known NW estimator) because this is available in popular commercial software. The optimized LRM reduces MSE from the OLS model by between 5 percent and 11 percent while adding information on statistically significant variations in location value.     

Revenue Sharing versus Expenditure Sharing in a Federal System

Problems of intergovernmental policy coordination can take many forms and are becoming increasingly important with continuing economic integration. In this paper we focus on the fiscal competition problem where the non-cooperative choice of taxes and transfers among governments typically leads to a suboptimal outcome. We look at the effect of two widely used corrective policies: revenue sharing and expenditure sharing (or intergovernmental matching grants). Our main result is that these two corrective policies have opposite effects depending on the form of competition between governments, namely whether governments compete in taxes or expenditures. More precisely, for any form of competition, revenue sharing is desirable exactly when expenditure sharing is not and vice versa. The implication is that the choice of the optimal corrective policy requires a complete understanding of the underlying non-cooperative behavior among governments. Our second main result is that neither revenue sharing or expenditure sharing can be sustained as a Nash equilibrium among governments, although all governments would benefit from one of these two corrective policies. Central intervention is therefore inevitable unless governments can pre-commit to the optimal corrective policy before setting their fiscal policies.     

Sharing my way to success: A case study on developing entrepreneurial ventures using social capital in an OSS community

While Open Source Software (OSS) communities provide opportunities for knowledge creation, we have a limited understanding of how entrepreneurs leverage OSS communities for their entrepreneurial ventures. Using social capital theory in a mixed methods case study, we compare entrepreneur and non-entrepreneur behaviors to investigate how entrepreneurs build social capital within an OSS community. This study shows that entrepreneurs differentiate themselves from non-entrepreneurs by focusing on cognitive and relational capital building activities, which in return makes it possible for them to leverage their social capital to influence and shape the environment in which they are operating. Our findings suggest that entrepreneurs strategically select which activities within the community to expend their limited resources on (e.g., developing code over participating in email conversations) and build their social capital more through their actions than through their words (e.g., showing their commitment to the community through code commits, bug fixes, and documentation). Given the liabilities of newness and smallness as well as other challenges faced by entrepreneurs, applying an open innovation strategy in OSS communities could be one approach where entrepreneurs, by developing and freely revealing their intellectual property to the community, share their way to success via OSS-infused entrepreneurial business ventures.     

曲面响应法预测砂浆性能的试验研究

本试验以砂浆性能为研究对象,采用Box-Behnken的中心组合实验设计及响应面分析方法对腻子粘结强度进行预测研究。试验选用三因素三水平的响应曲面分析法,建立了粘结强度的二次多项数学模型,并以粘结强度为响应值作响应面和等高线,考察了水粉比、灰粉比和胶粉比对粘结强度的影响,并根据实际选择响应曲面方程,利用最小二乘法估计相应的系数,剔除最不显著因素,建立最终的数学方程。结果表明:该预测模型能很好地描述粘结强度与水粉比、灰粉比和胶粉比之间的关系,可以对腻子粘结强度进行分析和预测,为砂浆性能研究提供一种新方法。     

Hybridizing local and generic information to model cropping system spatial distribution in an agricultural landscape

For quantitative water management, fine analysis of spatial and temporal interactions between cropping systems and water resources helps identify time and site-specific withdrawal situations. However, it is a methodological challenge to provide fine-resolution analyses at the scale of large watersheds used for crises management. In this study, we present a methodology based on multiple methods and mixed sources of information to finely model an agricultural landscape (AL) that represents the spatial distribution of cropping systems. Our approach is based on progressively hybridizing databases and local actors' and experts' knowledge to produce a spatially explicit and dynamic model. The Land Parcel Identification System database, which resulted from the European Common Agricultural Policy, is crucial for our method since it provides the spatial and temporal basis of our model (i.e., geographic delineation of islets and information about crop sequences). Local knowledge is used to identify factors determining spatial distribution of cropping systems and to build a generic model that simulates farmers' crop-management strategies. The model was qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated using a multi-agent simulation platform (MAELIA). We asked local experts on quantitative water management to evaluate the ability of the platform to reproduce intra- and inter-annual dynamics at different levels when using our model of the AL as input. The experts were satisfied with the results; they validated the predicted dynamics of the variables, and some discussed the objectivity of the values. We discuss the method’s contribution to current challenges in modeling large agricultural areas and the associated tradeoffs. The approach is promising for policy makers who wish to develop integrated, locally adapted land-management strategies.     

加强施工机械设备管理

为了进一步提高劳动生产率、提高企业经济效益,根据施工单位机械设备数量不足、严重老化、技术性和配套性落后等问题,进行分析和探讨解决的方法及措施。     

Money,random matching and endogenous growth: A quantitative analysis

In this study, we develop a search-and-matching monetary growth model to analyze the effects of inflation on economic growth and social welfare by introducing endogenous economic growth via capital externality into a two-sector search-and-matching model. We find that the channel through which inflation affects economic growth in the search-and-matching model is different from the traditional cash-in-advance model. To facilitate the calibration, we obtain an empirical estimate of the effects of inflation on economic growth using panel regressions. In the simulation analysis, we quantitatively evaluate the welfare effect of inflation in the search-and-matching endogenous growth model and compare it to a search-and-matching exogenous growth model. We find that the welfare effect of inflation is nonlinear in the endogenous growth model whereas it is linear in the exogenous growth model. Furthermore, we find that the welfare cost of inflation under endogenous growth is up to four times as large as the welfare cost of inflation under exogenous growth.