中资外资人身险公司竞争力评价比较——基于“中国保险公司竞争力评价研究报告（2011）”

随着加入世界贸易组织(WTO)和保险市场的开放,中国的保险业出现了飞速发展。机遇与挑战并存,在大量资金、先进技术流入的同时,中国保险公司的竞争力到底如何?在竞争力方面,中资、外资保险公司各自的表现如何?以\"2011年保险公司竞争力研究报告\"的数据为依据,通过将\"中资外资\"这样一个定性的概念用数学上定量的形式表现在数学模型中,进而分析定性因素\"中资、外资\"对人身险公司竞争力的影响。     

How many factors are important in U.K. stock returns?

I use the sequential approach of Harvey and Liu ([2018]. Lucky factors (Working Paper). Duke University) to build linear factor models in U.K. stock returns among a set of 13 candidate factors using individual stocks and three groups of test portfolios between July 1983 and December 2017. My study finds that the Market factor is the dominant factor in reducing mispricing in individual stocks and test portfolios regardless of the pricing error metric used. The Market factor has a bigger impact when using a value weighting pricing error metric. Whether a second factor is used or not depends upon which metric is used for mispricing and the time period examined. My study finds support for a two-factor model for the whole sample period of the Market factor and the Conservative Minus Aggressive (CMA) factor of Fama and French ([2015]. “A five-factor asset pricing model.” Journal of Financial Economics 116: 1–22) when giving greater weight to the mispricing of larger companies.     

分项收入不平等效应与收入结构的优化

从分项收入角度考察城乡收入不平等,不仅能判断产生收入不平等的原因,还能判断什么分项收入有利于增加收入总量;不仅能量化收入不平等效应,还能根据收入不平等效应来优化收入结构。研究发现,分项收入具有性质不同、大小不等的收入不平等效应,其中工资性收入扩大收入不平等的效应最强、转移性收入次之、财产性收入最小;经营性收入是唯一具有缩小收入不平等效应的分项收入。据此,我们认为,城乡居民收入结构优化的方向应该是,稳定维持工资性收入、适当调整转移性收入、适度控制财产性收入并努力增加经营性收入。     

信贷、保险、“信贷+保险”的扶贫效果比较研究

农村金融是农村经济发展的重要内生动力,创新金融扶贫体制对我国农村深度贫困地区的脱贫攻坚工作具有重要意义。本文基于多重均衡模型,对比研究信贷、保险、"信贷+保险"三类金融产品的扶贫效果,在不同的信贷和保险产品结构下得出陷贫概率,进而得出金融扶贫产品的精准设计,以创新金融扶贫体制,从而解决我国深度贫困的问题。研究表明:单独信贷产品扶贫无效;保险能够帮助阈值以上人群摆脱潜在贫困,但对深度贫困无效;"信贷+保险"能解决一定程度的深度贫困问题,比单独信贷或单独保险的扶贫效果更好。     

有关韩国不动产周期分析——使用多元回归模型的计量分析(英文)

本文研究了经济环境的波动如何影响韩国不动产周期变化。首先,本文界定了什么是不动产周期。研究了一些对不动产市场影响最大的经济变量。运用了多元线性回归模型和时间序列模型。本文收集了2000年一月至2013年一月的数据。运用计量分析方法,本文达成了一个结论,即上述经济变量与不动产周期之间有着显著的关系。     

Optimal pair-trading strategy over long/short/square positions—empirical study

Suzuki [Automatica, 2016, 67, 33–45] solves the optimal, finitely iterative, three-regime switching problem for investing in a mean-reverting asset that follows an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck price process and find explicit solutions. The remarkable feature of this model is that the investor can explicitly take either a long, short or square position and can switch the position, with transaction costs, during the investment period. We run empirical simulations of such multiple-regime switching models. There are very few such attempts in the existing literature because it is difficult to find, first, an explicit solution to the problem and second, appropriate financial assets that follow the artificial stochastic process required by the mathematical model. According to the Monte Carlo simulations of the optimal pair-trading strategy, the mean daily Sharp ratio is more than 2.3, whereas the mean Sharp ratio for the historical simulation of the ‘stub’ pairs (combinations of parent/subsidiary companies) is 0.6886. We believe that the results obtained from performing the empirical simulations are remarkable and consider that the optimal switching strategy of the rigorous mathematical model is applicable to businesses in the real world. For the reference many pseudo-program codes are added, which can help to replicate the optimal trading strategies.     

环江油田长8层注水井酸化增注工艺

通过对环江油田长8注水井欠注原因的分析,提出了深部酸化降压增注的技术思路,开展了酸液体系和酸化工艺研究,现场实施取得了良好的效果,为该区注水井降压增注提供了有效的手段。     

预测央行脆弱性的VaR模型

本文旨在研究可将两代货币危机模型有机地结合在一起的用于预测央行脆弱性的VaR模型,这一模型为央行提供了一个预警指标,同时也为市场参与者提供了一个判断央行是否具有偿付能力的依据。     

Strategic Manipulation of Preference Information in Multi-Criteria Group Decision Methods

When group decisions involve the allocation of resources to group members, the members might have an incentive to strategically distort any information they provide in order to increase their share of resources. The paper compares several multi-criteria group decision methods with respect to this problem. We show, using a computational model, that strategic manipulation of preference information is possible in all of the methods considered, although to a different extent. Furthermore, when the solution a method generates under correct information is not Pareto-optimal, manipulation attempts might even improve the efficiency of outcomes.